CSBAG commends govt on improved credit ratings
On November 7, 2025, American credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings acknowledged Uganda’s resilient growth, strong external trade position and recovery momentum after years of global and domestic shocks.
Julius Mukunda, CSBAG executive director addressing journalists during a press conference at Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group in Ntinda on 12th November 2025. (Photos by Juliet Kasirye)
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Despite the numerous challenges Uganda’s economy has faced, the Government has improved credit ratings, which is commendable, according to the Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG).
CSBAG, which is a coalition formed in 2004 to bring together civil society (CSOs) at national and district levels to influence Government decisions on resource mobilisation, says Uganda is among the countries with the most resilient economies in the world.
On November 7, 2025, American credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings acknowledged Uganda’s resilient growth, strong external trade position and recovery momentum after years of global and domestic shocks.
This American credit rating agency has revised Uganda’s sovereign outlook to positive and stable, urging that the country's high economic growth and its effective oil boom are likely to limit the country's credit profile.
Since it has always been a dream of the Government to have enough foreign investments, CSBAG executive director Julius Mukunda said these ratings will influence how people invest in our economy.
"If a country has enough foreign investments, then you know that issues of employment, collecting more taxes, among others, will be answered".
Moses Mulondo, the New Vision deputy business editor interacts with Julius Mukunda, the CSBAG executive director as other CSBAG staff look on during a press conference at Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group in Ntinda on November, 12 2025.
“We are now projected to have expanded by 6.3% in the financial year 2025 and expected to average 6.4% between financial year 2026 to 2028. This implies that we are having an economy that is growing faster than the population, thus increasing opportunities for income generation,” Mukunda said.
He added that these ratings also imply that the total value of Uganda’s economy rose from shillings 183 trillion in 2023 to 227.9 trillion, which is about $62 billion in 2025, and this is driven by investment in agriculture, construction and manufacturing.
He addressed the media about the latest revision of Uganda’s economic outlook from stable to positive at CSBAG offices in Ntinda, Kampala on Wednesday, November 12, 2025.
Some of the developments in Uganda’s economic performance, according to S&P, include oil projects, strong and resilient growth, record rise in foreign exchange reserves, improved external balance, return of concessional financing, low inflation, current currency stability and strong banking sector.
Since Uganda’s first oil is expected by the end of 2026, with production peaking at 230,000 barrels per day by 2030, S&P ratings estimates that Uganda is likely to get $61 billion ($16m) per day when oil comes out.
Because of this progress, Mukunda emphasised that the protracted and consistent investment in oil and investments makes us a more stable country.
Starting financial year 2027, if oil is managed transparently under the Petroleum Fund, S&P expects oil revenue to contribute 1-2% of GDP annually. The Tilenga, Kingfisher and East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) projects will be completed by late 2026.
“We hope the government continues to address national content challenges such as technical capacity and financial access challenges so that the benefits of oil and gas are fully utilised by all Ugandans,” advised Mukunda.
Despite a significant hit on our foreign exchange reserves, Mukunda revealed that Uganda has seen a notable recovery. This year alone, Uganda’s foreign exchange reserves increased from $3.3b in January 2025 to $5.4b in September 2025.
This, according to Mukunda, is an incredible leap in terms of trying to ensure that we have strong reserves. Strong reserves mean that the Bank of Uganda has the capacity to keep the shillings stable, prevent sudden price increases on imported goods such as soap, fuel and medicine.
Additionally, Mukunda said, this also helps to control inflation, which fell to 3.4% in 2025, and reassure investors that Uganda can pay its bills even in tough times.
“I think, for the last four or five months, people have been asking why the Uganda shilling is stable? This stability not only helps to prevent sharp depreciation of the shilling but also reduces imported inflation,” Mukunda said.
Addressing journalists, New Vision deputy business editor Moses Mulondo said Uganda’s progress and investments in the oil sector have paid off, citing that out of the 170 oil wells that should have been drilled for oil production, 155 wells have already been drilled.