Why 2026 contest ultimately hinges on credibility and trust

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OPINION

By David Mukholi

Nomination of presidential candidates ended this week, and Ugandans now face a choice of eight contenders for the presidency, with elections slated for the second week of January 2026. In the race are:

• President Yoweri Museveni of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM)
• Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) of the National Unity Platform (NUP)
• Nandala Mafabi of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)
• Gen. (Rtd.) Mugisha Muntu of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT)
• Elton Joseph Mabirizi of the Conservative Party (CP)
• Robert Kasibante of the National Peasant Party (NPP)
• Mubarak Muyangwa of the Common Man’s Party (CMP), and
• Frank Bulia Kabinga of the Revolutionary People’s Party (RPP).

It is a drop from the 11 who contested in 2021, but it still reflects the fragmented nature of Uganda’s opposition.

Some candidates enjoy name recognition, but those of CP, NPP, and RPP are obscure figures with little organisational capacity or voter base.

While democracy allows anyone who meets the legal requirements to stand, the endorsement process requiring signatures from three-quarters of the districts proved too steep for several aspirants who were disqualified. However, instead of acknowledging their organisational weaknesses, they blamed the Electoral Commission (EC), a tendency that underscores the Opposition’s broader culture of avoiding accountability and blaming institutions rather than addressing internal inefficiencies.

The cardinal election rule is that there can only be one winner. So, come January 2026, after the ballots are cast, counted, and tallied, the EC will announce one of the candidates as the winner, and hence the next president.

Immediately after the nomination, each of the candidates spoke to the media and addressed rallies in various parts of Kampala.

Thousands of supporters turned up to cheer and celebrate their respective candidates.

At this point, it does not matter how big the crowds were for each candidate or will be during the campaign trail; what does is building on those numbers to translate them into votes.

Museveni enters the race with the incumbency advantage and the legacy of six electoral victories. His campaign theme, Protecting the Gains, emphasises achievements in economic recovery, security, and stability. By contrast, the opposition candidates, judging from their post-nomination rhetoric, portray Uganda as worse off today than before 1986 when he became president, each claiming the mantle of “saviour.”

The 2026 contest will be drawn along the line, whether there have been achievements to celebrate or not. FDC’s Nandala is campaigning on fixing the economy, CMP’s Mubaraka presents populist promises of uplifting the lives of the common man, and it resonates with what Muntu, Kabinga, Mabirizi, and Kasibante are saying.

However, it is Mabirizi of CP who also thinks federalism is the answer to Uganda’s economic and political problems.

CP is a party created in 1980 to carry on the vision of Kabaka Yekka, which was founded in 1961 to champion Buganda’s interests in independent Uganda. With Mayanja Nkangi as its leader, it lost the controversial 1980 elections with no seats in Parliament.

2026 polls: Museveni vs Kyagulanyi, Round II

In 2016, Mabirizi contested as an independent, securing 24,498 votes representing 0.25% of the total valid votes.

That year also had eight candidates, including Museveni polling 5,971,872 votes (60.62%) and Kizza Besigye, then of FDC, the leading opposition party, with 3,508,681 votes (35.61%).

It was a contest between NRM and FDC, which changed in 2021 to NRM vs. NUP, which will form a two-horse race again.

In 2021, there were 11 candidates, including Museveni, Kyagulanyi, and Muntu.

NRM’s Museveni won with 6,042,898 votes (58.38%), followed by NUP’s Kyagulanyi, garnering 3,631,437 (35.08%).

ANT’s Muntu only managed 67,574 (0.65%); he is now back in the contest, in which Museveni and Kyagulanyi are.

Muntu, a former army commander, broke ranks with FDC after losing the 2017 party president election and formed ANT. He goes to the polls with the 2021 polls’ poor performance. He, however, is in talks with the People’s Front for Freedom (PFF) to become a joint presidential candidate, a commendable move, but unlikely to gain traction.

PFF, another splinter from FDC, is headed by Besigye and Kampala’s Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago. Its emergence is going to affect the performance of FDC’s Nandala, who is making his first appearance on the presidential ballot.

He is FDC’s secretary general, holding on to the Najjanakumbi faction after Besigye and Lukwago broke away with the Katonga faction, which has morphed into PFF. Their disagreements stemmed from what Besigye called ‘dirty’ money that the party got from unknown sources to fund the 2021 campaign.

Patrick Amuriat Oboi, the FDC’s presidential candidate in that election, polled 337,589 votes (3.26%). Since the split, most FDC members in central, western, northern, and parts of Busoga have defected to PFF and some to NUP.

2026 will be a continuation of the 2021 contest between Museveni and Kyagulanyi, musician-turned politician.

The NUP presidential candidate is mainly focusing his campaign on freedom, saying Ugandans are “oppressed by the dictator”.

He does not agree that there is anything good that has been done by the NRM since it took power. He thinks he is best suited to lead the country to what he calls “the promised land,” where, with him, there is freedom and peace.

Kygulanyi, who has prospered during the NRM reign and is among the successful and wealthy Ugandans, finds himself in a dilemma to convince voters that all is not well, and the country is doomed, and it will be he to bring stability, freedom, and peace. Yet some have lived examples of a better country under Museveni.

During his post-nomination rally in Nateete in Kampala, he set the tone of a defiant campaign, issuing a warning to Museveni and his government. Such aggressiveness, which he employed in 2021, may energise his support base without expanding it. The 2026 contest ultimately hinges on credibility and trust.

Museveni can draw on a long record of achievements to justify his appeal to “protect the gains,” while Kyagulanyi has the task of persuading voters to disregard those accomplishments and accept his portrayal of Uganda as a country in ruins.

X- @dmukholi1 dmukholi@gmail.com