Who is the beneficiary of low voter turnup in Ugandan elections?

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OPINION

By Julius Peter Ochen

The record low voter turn-up in the just concluded Kawempe North Byelection is rightfully concerning for all politically curious observers. According to the Election Commission, Kawempe North registered about 200,000 voters, but only 28,059 turned up on polling day representing just 14%. With believable allegations of votes wadding, perhaps the actual turn up percentage could even be lower.

This trend is not new in byelections in Uganda. In the Omoro County byelection of May 2022, 17,454 voters turned up out of 38,638, representing only 45.2%. The trend continued in Oyam North constituency byelection of July 2023 at 35.2% and Dokolo District byelection of March 2024 at 49.3%.

The low voter turnout phenomenon is not only unique to byelections in Uganda. Available statistics from the Election Commission reveal that, since 2001, voters increasingly sit on their rights to choose leaders. In the 2021 Presidential election, of the 18 million voters, only 11 million turned out to exercise their rights, representing 57%. The situation was not any different in the 2016 Presidential election with 63% turnout. 59.9% in 2011 and 69.19% in 2006 respectively.

Government spends billions of shillings organising elections in each respective year on account of numbers of registered voters. In the 2021 General elections, the government spent more than sh700b to plan and conduct elections for 18,103,603 registered voters and more than sh400b in 2016 for 15,277,198 registered voters. The cost for the 2026 elections could be in trillions of shillings. If the government is certain that only 60% of registered voters will turn up for polling, it could save the country about sh300b this coming financial year.

Governments, especially revolutionary ones like that of President Museveni, have the capacity to come up with policies that can coerce voters to take up their rights or forever forfeit it. For instance, if you have not voted in the last 10 years, one could be required to show cause why they should continue to appear in the voter register, with further threat of losing their National IDs and all the consequences that come with it.

It would be mind alluring to indulge in the imagination of who would win if all the 22 million registered voters turn up in the 2026 general elections. The 20 years demographic analysis of voters’ behaviours, attitudes and participatory habits suggest that urban population, now numbering more than 7 million voters, are more liberal, and more informed about their own rights.

They treasure personal liberty, are less likely to fall for campaign promises, they are more informed about the benefits of good governance and how it can turn around their own fortune by creating opportunities for all, and therefore, they are left-leaning.

The good news for the ruling party is that only 50% always turn up to vote. For instance, in the concluded January 2021 Presidential election, Gulu City had the lowest voter turnout at just 33%, followed by Kampala. Arua City and Jinja City had 45% turnup respectively.

Still within the lens of demographic politics, studies further suggest that young people, aged 15-25 years are less political. They do not subscribe to any political party and their voting behaviours are influenced by excitement. They can easily vote for a candidate on the basis of being beautiful or handsome. A good campaign song that rhymes with their rhythms can determine their choices. In the 2026 voters register, they number 7,310,386. Their voting turnup rate is impressively between 70% - 85%. Who stands a higher chance of scooping this populace?

A book titled population politics, further suggests that the most active population cluster of our voters are those aged 26 - 60 years. This bunch are alive to the fact that politics determine everything in polarized society with patronage politics like that of Uganda. They know what a progressive society should look like and they desire it. They love their personal liberty. They treasure peace and security that guarantee the future to their various hustles.

But they are the easiest population to manipulate. They are under immense economic and social pressure. They are mostly unemployed or under-employed for Uganda’s context, which makes them vulnerable to political interests. They number more than 11 million in the current voter register. Their turn up is about 55% though.  If all mobilized or rather pressed into voting, it would be interesting to imagine their political choices. 

The last but the most interesting voters’ population of Uganda are those aged 60 years and above. They have seen it all and voted it all. They are no longer excited by anything. They get surprised whenever they filter truths in politicians’ speeches. They only vote if their immediate relative is in the ballots, or polling station is within their fading sights or if they are provided transport to polling stations.

Their general turn up is less than 25%. They number about 2.6 million in the current voter register. It’s the population politicians are least bothered with. What if there was a compelling policy that coerces them to take up their political responsibility?

It is, therefore, upon party and public policy strategists interested in population politics to delve further into this discussion.

The writer is public policy pundit, with interest in politics