What Uganda’s recent local government nominations reveal about country’s political anatomy

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OPINION

By Crispin Kaheru

Numbers rarely lie. And in politics, they speak louder than rhetoric. Uganda’s 2025 local government nominations have offered one of the clearest reflections yet of where political power truly lies and how it is quietly shifting.

Nearly 80,000 candidates were recently nominated under 26 political parties across the local government spectrum: district and city councils, municipal and division levels, sub-counties, and town councils.

The figures paint a vivid picture, not just of continuity, but of a transformation happening in plain sight.

The numbers speak plainly: The National Resistance Movement (NRM) remains the anchor of Uganda’s political order. Out of 79,990 candidates nominated nationwide, the NRM alone produced 43,823, a 55 percent.

That’s not just dominance; it’s deep structural entrenchment. From district halls to sub-county councils, the yellow thread of the ruling party seems to run almost unbroken. The women made up 27 percent of its nominees, underscoring the NRM’s deliberate inclusivity at every level.

The NRM’s grip seems firmest in the west and Karamoja, where it commands between 70 and 85 percent of all nominations (in those respective regions).

In the west and Karamoja regions, government programs like Operation Wealth Creation and the Parish Development Model have woven the ruling-NRM into everyday life. This could potentially explain the firm grip.

In contrast, the opposition’s presence, though symbolically strong, remains limited in scale. The National Unity Platform (NUP) fielded 6,121 candidates, that is about 7.6 percent of all nominations.

Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) followed with 2,951, Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) with 1,620, the People’s Front for Freedom (1,229), Democratic Party (775), and formations like ANT (96) and JEEMA (92).

Together, the entire opposition bloc accounts for roughly 17 percent of total nominations. Yet their influence is not in numbers but geography.

Their strength lies in cities and towns, Kampala, Wakiso, Mukono, Jinja, Mbale, Soroti, Gulu, and Arua, where one would say, literacy is higher, youth activism thrives, and civic energy flows.

In the urban centres, political competition crackles with intensity, public debate is louder, and party colours mean something.

When you disaggregate by gender, NUP fielded the largest number of women among opposition parties, about 1,500 or a quarter of its candidates.

FDC followed with 700 women (24 percent), UPC with 400 (25 percent), and DP with smaller figures.

The numbers show that, while the opposition struggles to grow nationally, it has managed to attract women where its support base is urban, youthful, and outspoken.

If the NRM is the bedrock of Uganda’s politics and the opposition its loudest urban voice, the Independents are now the restless middle. An emerging power in their own right.

Independents accounted for 22,801 nominations, which is about 28.5 percent of the total. That is nearly one in every three contestants, a dramatic leap from past elections when independents may have been an afterthought. They are now a class of their own, ambitious, unpredictable, and influential, especially in local contests.

Their geography tells a revealing story. In the north, Lango, Acholi, and West Nile, Independents make up nearly 40 percent of all candidates, eclipsing any single opposition party.

In the Central Region, particularly in Wakiso, Mpigi, Luwero, and Mukono, they flourish again, riding on urbanization, personality politics, and fading partisan loyalties.

In the East, independents seem to thrive on clan networks, transactional alliances, and tight community ties, all of which often tend to defy party logic. But it is also important to note that many independents are generally former NRM members or aspirants who lost primaries but refused to step aside.

This surge is not disillusionment, it may be localization. Politics at the grassroots has become personal. Candidates win not through manifestos but through visibility, social trust, and service.

Patronage and proximity now matter more than ideology. In a way, the independents seem to be the political children of NRM’s rule, shaped by it, yet now asserting independence from it.

Among independents too, women have found new political space. Roughly 6,000 independent candidates are women, a share nearly matching the NRM’s 27 percent female representation.

For many, running solo may not have been rebellion but liberation, from male-dominated party primaries and rigid hierarchies.

In towns like Gulu, Mbale, and Wakiso, women independents now compete head-on with party-backed men and often win, as we have seen in the past.

Still, the NRM’s resilience remains unmatched. Statistics show that the party is embedded in the smallest units of governance.

Elections in Uganda are not won in newsrooms, studios or social media but in parishes, markets, and trading centres.

The opposition, though smaller, remains relevant where it matters most, at the frontlines of public debate. Its dominance in Kampala and Wakiso gives it disproportionate visibility.

NUP may field just 7.6 percent of all candidates, but it drives a significant percent of national political conversation, online, on radio, and in talk shows. FDC and UPC may be shrinking, but their persistence in old strongholds keeps Uganda’s politics from becoming dull. What limits them is not belief but bandwidth, fragmented organization, scarce resources, and poor rural penetration. Without coalition-building or structural reform, their influence risks staying afloat but in small local enclaves.

Taken together, the recent local government electoral tiers’ nominations reveal Uganda’s true political anatomy. It is a power pyramid of sorts.

The NRM is the solid base. The Independents are the new pulse, fluid, local, and rising fast. The Opposition remains the bright top beam, smaller, urban-centric, and vocal.

If these patterns are a forecast, they tell us three things we must heed.

First, the NRM inevitably remains the gravitational centre of Uganda’s politics.

Second, the explosion of independents marks a profound shift from party loyalty to personal legitimacy, politics grounded in reputation, not registration.

Third, the opposition’s urban concentration reflects a growing divide: between city and village, youth and establishment, reform and continuity.

In short, Uganda’s politics is no longer a duel between parties. It is a negotiation of legitimacy across communities.

Power now moves as much through social networks as party offices. The future will belong to those who can combine the NRM’s organisation, the independents’ authenticity, and the opposition’s passion.

The writer is a Member of the Uganda Human Rights Commission (UHRC)