So, Ayatollah Khamenei, where is thy sting?

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WHAT'S UP!

The biggest scam of the 21st century, even more than the dotard lording it over on Pennsylvania Avenue, has been the Ayatollah sitting on top of the food chain in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

One thing the folks in the Middle East seem to be very good at is rhetoric, remember Comical Ali? Real name Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, he was the foreign minister of Iraq during the American invasion in 2003. Dude was claiming the American army was in full retreat as they literally knocked on Baghdad’s doors. And that was after his boss, the unlamented Saddam Hussein, had vowed the world will see the ‘mother of all wars’ if America dared invade his country.

When the USA finally unleashed it’s ‘bunker-buster’ bombs on Iran’s buried nuclear facilities on Saturday night, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, (that position is a poison chalice during wartime, if at all) vowed what he called ‘everlasting consequences’ for the ‘Great Satan’, Iran’s derogatory term for the US.

Before the strike, security experts had spelt out what Iran’s options of retaliation might be. It could target the 20 US bases in the region, or ask its proxies in Iraq and Syria to do so. It could launch the much publicised ‘swarm attacks’ on US Navy warships using drones and fast torpedo boats, and ask the Houthis, its allies in Yemen, to resume their attacks on western ships passing between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.

It could go the extreme and close off the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass daily, by sowing sea mines.

But, what did it do? It fired about half a dozen missiles at a US base in Qatar, and word is that it warned the US and Qatar before firing them. Talk about the consequences!

For a long time, Iran has been the big boy of the region, and even supported Russia with the war in Ukraine. It was seen as, if not exactly a world superpower, but playing right up there with the big boys.

Then came the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, and everything changed. What was supposed to be a humiliation of the Jewish state and a warning to the world that Israel is not safe, instead become Iran’s Waterloo.

First, its biggest proxies, Hamas and the much-feared Hezbollah, were decimated by Israel. Then for the first time Israel attacked Iran directly, taking out much of its air defences. This led to the current attacks, where Israel has almost a free reign over Iran’s airspace.

Throughout all this, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been quiet. It is said he has hunkered down in a bunker, no doubt wondering how his ‘Axis of Resistance’, which included Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, has collapsed like a pack of cards.

Throughout his 36-year-rule, the Iranian dictator has been known for his fiery rhetoric against both Israel and the US. There is even a clock in central Tehran counting down the minutes to the Jewish country’s annihilation (there were unconfirmed reports that it had been destroyed in an air strike).

Saddam’s ‘Mother of all Wars’ turned out stillborn, and Comical Ali disappeared as soon as the gates of Baghdad were breached by the US forces. Lesson of the day?

Rhetoric does not win wars. Another casualty in this particular conflict has been the spectacular absence of critical thinking by some of my colleagues. For a long time, critical thinking has been one of the trademarks of many Old Budonians. But sadly, the new crop seemed to have left it all behind when they left the hill. Or, as some have claimed, it is no longer taught or emphasised at the school.

There’s a WhatsApp group fondly known as The Budonian Kafunda, arguably the biggest collection of Old Budonians on social media. It was formed in the days of email, and was a platform where OBs argued and debated over almost everything. It is said that make a statement of any kind and there will be a Budonian willing, even raring, to debate its pros and cons.

It was well and good, even when it transitioned to WhatsApp. Debates were civil, respectful, largely based on facts and most times ended in OBs agreeing to disagree. Sadly, that is not the case anymore.

The current debating on the Kafunda is full of intrigue; conspiracy theories and misinformation rules where corroboration and proof once used to hold forte.

In a nutshell, critical thinking involves assessing the validity of arguments, recognising and omitting one’s biases from arguments, weighing the credibility of sources and considering different viewpoints before forming conclusions.

The current debates on the Kafunda seem to start from conclusions based on biases and then the search for sources, however outlandish, to corroborate those conclusions. These are then defended on the Kafunda without giving any quarter.

Another crucial aspect of critical thinking is honesty; that, sadly, is increasingly amiss amongst Old Budonians’ debating. And that, to me, is a greater tragedy than if Israel or the US decided to bust Ayatollah Ali Khameini’s bunker.

 Follow Kalungi on X (Twitter), @KalungiKabuye