By Hannington Mutabazi
When President Mohamed Bazoum was ousted in Niger on July 26, 2023, chaos erupted as the country turned against its former colonizer, France.
At the backdrop of the Niger coup d'état, France had already fallen out with Burkina Faso, and Mali. France was forced to withdraw its troops – It withdrew its troops from Mali in August 2022, and in Burkina Faso five months later.
While the former colonial master left, the increasing influence of Russia could be noticed. Coup supporters in these countries waved Russian flags in front of the French embassies and on the streets of their capitals. They blamed their former master for the woes in their countries.
How did they get here?
Let’s rewind to about 11 years ago (2012) when the Malian government invited France to help resolve the rapidly deteriorating security crisis in the country’s restive north, where Tuareg rebels and fighters allied to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) had captured large swaths of territory. In 2018, France signed a similar military agreement with Burkina Faso in 2018 to achieve stability against the threat of Islamist militant groups.
France sent in thousands of troops and routed the fighters away from the capital, Bamako, with some help from neighbouring Chad. In 2014, with the support of the Malian government, France moved to broaden its counterterrorism operation in the region. It deployed 5,100 soldiers in five Sahel countries in what came to be known as Operation Barkhane – its largest and most expensive operation abroad in modern history.
Fast-forward to date, despite all the efforts and resources injected into the operation, the desired results have not been achieved. These countries' problems have not come to an end but only strengthened armed groups. Attacks on civilians became routine and the security situation deteriorated across Sahel countries.
This has only made France more unpopular in the region. Locals blame the former colonial master for all their woes and have grown more suspicious of the former colonial power’s intentions.
An article I read on WPR (World Political Review) titled, The United States Should Work With the Sahel’s New Juntas, it urges Western-led security cooperation efforts in the Sahel to consider the emerging reality that a large segment of the population in all the Sahelian countries is now deeply sceptical about the democratic pretences of the area’s civilian governments and is scornful even of the idea of democratic government. Many Burkinabè, Malians, and Nigeriens believe the juntas now ruling their countries are more politically legitimate and representative than the constitutional regimes they replaced. The former civilian governments’ association with France, which has become radioactive in the imaginations of many, is a significant problem. French motives are second-guessed and doubted.
The putschists have become so popular in these countries because of the reassurance they come with to restore stability and economic growth.
Quoting an article from Aljazeera, French mistakes helped create Africa’s coup belt, it reads in part that “pervasive corruption, extreme poverty, widespread unemployment, and the perceived inability of Western partners and international institutions to bring stability to and ensure security in the region have turned local populations against their Western-allied governments, fuelling public support for coups and increasing recruitment capabilities of armed groups. The primary reason behind France’s rapid loss of influence and respect in the Sahel, where it is now widely seen as nothing but a neocolonial villain, was its faulty approach to the region’s ever-deepening security crisis.
“Rather than trying to identify and address the root causes of conflict by strengthening state institutions and encouraging good governance, Paris tried to resolve the Sahel countries’ security problems solely through military force. This military focus, which did not even translate into decisive victories on the ground, added fuel to the conflict and swiftly turned public opinion against France.
The article elucidates that, “The greatest beneficiary of France’s many mistakes in the Sahel, other than the putschists in Mali, Niger and beyond, has been Russia. Moscow has long been looking to improve its relations with Africa and eliminate Western dominance over the continent. And France’s recent mishaps there gave it the opening it had long been waiting for.”
The Niger situation
Before the coup, Niger was undoubtedly a safe haven for France’s policies in the region; it was also a strong ally of Western nations. Even after Mali and Burkina Faso kicked French troops out of their countries, Niger was more welcoming.
After the coup, which is the ninth in the Sahel region in three years, everything looks uncertain. Niger Junta has demanded that the 1500 French troops stationed there are withdrawn immediately. It declared that France's forces are now "illegally" stationed there.
The United States which also has 1,100 military personnel in the country, decided to move some of its troops from a base in Niger’s capital to another in the Agadez area. Niger has been a key base for both American and French anti-jihadist operations
Thousands of Nigeriens have made it a point to gather almost every day in the Nigerien capital Niamey around a military base housing French soldiers to demand their departure.
Niger now accuses France of gathering forces, war materials and equipment in several neighbouring West African countries with a view of military intervention. Niger also withdrew diplomatic immunity of French ambassador Sylvain Itte and ordered police to expel him.
Even after an ultimatum from, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to Niger to hand power back to the elected Nigerien President, the Junta has not backed down. However, ECOWAS has implemented tough economic sanctions on Niger.
The regional bloc also rejected a proposal by the new military government to return the country to civilian rule within three years after the July coup.
ECOWAS also has an alternative of invading Niger and using military force to restore President Mohamed Bazoum’s government. But as every day goes by, it seems less likely.
Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani, the coup leader said Niger did not want a war but would defend itself against any foreign intervention. Gen Tchiani also reiterated criticism of what he called the "illegal and inhumane" sanctions imposed by Ecowas on the landlocked country. This has included cutting electricity, resulting in blackouts in Niamey and other major cities, as well as blocking crucial imports.
When the military was taking over the government, they said it was due to the continued deterioration of the security situation, and poor economic and social governance. However, they emphasised that the security forces were managing the situation.
With or without new allies, we are yet to see how Niger’s Junta will turn around the security situation and poor economic and social governance in the country.
The writer is a journalist and an enthusiast of international diplomacy
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