NRM primaries test democracy, reveal strength, weakness

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OPINION

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) held its primaries yesterday to select parliamentary candidates for the 2026 general elections.

The winners will run on the party ticket next year.

Yesterday’s primaries were large-scale, covering the entire country and posing a logistical challenge for the NRM. It is like a national election. Indeed, it is.

The party divided the country into 72,000 villages, meaning election materials had to reach all in time, and polling officials were deployed.

Each village is a polling station, whereas, in the national elections, there are 34,340 polling stations as per the 2021 polls. The number might grow, but not beyond 40,000.

The NRM electoral commission, therefore, has a lot of work to do. The party has about 18.4 million members on its register, which surpasses the national election roll because the party’s cut-off age is 16, while the national cut-off is 18 years.

To vote, individuals must be on the register. In previous years, the party lacked a credible register.

In some areas, members’ names were written in exercise books and could be erased easily.

Today, the party has a printed and updated register with volumes for each village.

To an outsider visiting Uganda in the past four weeks, it might appear as though a general election is underway. The campaign processions, rivalry, excitement and money used make it look like a nationwide, all-party contest.

Additionally, the rules and efforts to co-ordinate make the party’s electoral commission resemble the national one, but it takes firm action. For instance, it warned candidates against bribery and violence and even dismissed about 67 party registrars for poor performance. Some candidates were also disqualified from the race for not following party rules and issues of integrity.

There were approximately 151 tally centres across the country, each manned by officials with instructions to transmit results to the national tally centre in Kampala by 4:00 pm yesterday. For days, NRM primaries have dominated political news, overshadowing other political parties, which are still in the early stages of selecting candidates.

However, NRM primaries have been marred by violence.

In some areas, lives have been lost and property destroyed. This not only reflects the competitiveness for the NRM ticket, but also a life-and-death contest. Securing the NRM ticket brings one closer to becoming an MP. Given that legislators earn a significant amount, earning around sh25m per month, the contenders see the parliamentary seat as a valuable job.

So, losing primaries is missing out on a juicy job; the stakes are high. NRM primaries provide a strong indication of the outcome of the general election. Besides the violence, the other drawback is the voting method.

Lining up exposes the voters’ preferences, which puts them at risk in case of violence after voting.

This could also affect the party’s cohesion ahead of the general elections. However, when NRM tried using ballot papers, it was chaotic. Not only was it poorly managed, but there were allegations of vote tampering, which upset many.

Distribution of voting materials was a nightmare, with materials ending up in the wrong places. To make the primaries more transparent, the party adopted the method of lining behind a candidate or his/her poster to curb election malpractice, especially ballot box stuffing. Also, a proper register was compiled, which is currently in use.

The problem is that the NRM primaries are a fierce contest between incumbents and opponents waiting to replace them.

Tension is heightened by the suspicion that an invisible hand from the party headquarters influences outcomes, causing clashes between candidates and their supporters.

Some incumbents believe they are entitled to retain the party ticket, should not be challenged and have the best ideas for their constituencies.

Conversely, some opponents think they are best suited and consider the incumbent tired and out of ideas.

All these issues are compounded by the fact that Ugandan politicians cannot accept defeat. They think about winning and cannot imagine losing.

Despite the violence and flaws, NRM primaries reflect an internal effort at democracy.

After every election cycle, there are improvements, and over time, they will get better. Other political parties use consensus methods to pick candidates.

However, this system is susceptible to corruption and favouritism. Moreover, the competition for tickets is often weaker, and some constituencies have no candidates at all.

The National Unity Platform (NUP), the leading opposition, uses a committee to vet and approve candidates, with a small team led by party president Robert Kyagulanyi deciding who gets the party ticket. In competitive regions like Buganda, many contenders vie for the ticket, but this is unlikely to cause chaos because the final decision is made by the party leader. Those who are unsuccessful have two options: run as independents and lose party membership or accept the outcome.

In regions with fewer contenders, anyone who emerges is nominated and endorsed by the party. This is likely to increase the number of candidates nationwide.

The Democratic Party (DP) and Democratic Front (DF), both based in Buganda, also use small teams to select candidates.

The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), once the dominant opposition party before 2021, cannot afford a full party election process due to limited resources.

It was drained by a splinter that has since morphed into the People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), which is also unlikely to organise proper elections because of its late entry into politics.

For NRM, the primaries serve as a cornerstone for its campaign strategy. They project strength and, despite their flaws, present a fair and competitive method of selecting flagbearers. The party’s primaries are a hot topic for weeks and serve as a barometer for future success.

Additionally, every internal election contributes to building grassroots support. By the time the party holds its national conference in August, there will be around four million leaders from local to national levels. If each mobilises at least 10 voters for the general election, it could give NRM an early advantage ahead of the poll.

If party elections are a gauge of readiness for 2026, the NRM is ahead of its competitors.

dmukholi@gmail.com X — @dmukholi1