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The new National Resistance Movement (NRM) membership figures have gotten the opposition talking.

Despite a significant shift in the political loyalty of the central region including the capital Kampala in favour of the Opposition in the 2021 general election, NRM has reported a more than 70% increase in the region’s party membership.

Apart from a few cosmopolitan areas such as Kiboga, Mubende, Lyantonde, Kayunga, Kyankwanzi, Gomba, and Ssembabule, the lead Opposition party, the National Unity Platform (NUP), won many Parliamentary and local government seats in Buganda region.

However, political scholars and pundits have argued that the political dynamics have completely changed, predicting that it is nearly impossible for the Opposition to garner sweeping endorsement in 2026 as witnessed in the last polls.

The NRM secretariat in its report to the party central executive (CEC) during a meeting chaired by party chairperson President Yoweri Museveni at State House Entebbe on Thursday, April 11, 2024, celebrated an outstanding number of new members registered during the party register/ yellow book update exercise between March 13 and 17, 2024.

In a subsequent statement on his X, formerly Twitter account, President Museveni said: “In the meeting with the CEC members of the NRM at State House Entebbe, the party secretariat reported back on the registration process that took place between the 13th and 17th of March. There were some gaps in the process, such as the criminality of money lenders who take away national Identity Cards from Ugandans and the limited involvement of NRM village chairpersons and we have resolved to address those, through legislation if necessary and return to the people at an appropriate time. Despite these gaps, a large membership of up to 18.3m has been reported and I think it is a good start to this ongoing process. I thank NRM members for responding to the programme”.

Seven million new voters

The report, which was delivered by party secretary general Richard Todwong, indicates that out of the 18,336,468 who registered and updated their details during the exercise, 7,636,579 were new (the old members were 10,700889).

Those who qualified to be enrolled in the yellow book were among others aged 16 years and above.

Per the report, 1,479,419 (70.1%) new members were from the central region on top of the old membership of 2,107,968, summing up to 3,587,387 potential party voters in the next election.

This means the NRM’s membership growth in the Opposition bedrock was merely 1.2% below the national average of 71.3%.

“That is a lie, how can you say that they have over 18 million registered members when the total number in the last register was 18 million? That’s not accurate, but also that is how they have been doing, they inflate everything. They are liars and they are known for that,” Lewis Rubongoya, the NUP secretary general, said.

Western region

The predominantly NRM west, according to the report, registered 2,282,500 new party members on top of the 3,442,637 old members who updated their details during the exercise. At 5,725,137, the west has remained the region with the most party members.

However, in terms of party membership growth, the eastern region is on top of the curve, registering 2,288,705 (76.5%) new members well above the national average. This means, that with the 2,991,256 old members, the region is second to western with 5,279,961 members.

The report also revealed a rapid membership growth in northern Uganda at 73.4%. On top of 2,159,028 old party members, more than 1,584,955 were recorded in the yellow book, bringing the total party membership in the region steadily recovering from the more than two decades of war to 3,743,983.

“The sub-regions which registered the highest numbers of new members crossing the 100% mark are; Luwero with 425,018 compared to 245,933 old members representing 172.8% increase followed by Acholi 581,638 compared to 480,33, old members representing 120.9% increase and Teso with 527,081 compared to 517,486 representing 101.8% increase,” Todwong noted.

Least numbers

According to the report, it was in Kampala and the greater city metropolitan areas where the party registered the least number of new members (104,612). With 303,278 old members, the total membership in the region summed up to 407,890 (34.49%).

“The significant increase in the numbers was as a result of the overwhelming turn up for the update and registration of new members in districts which registered 80,000 and above new members,” the party highlighted.

These districts included those from the central region such as Kiboga, Kyotera, Luweero, and parts of Wakiso such as Kira municipality particularly in Kasokoso.

The other districts are; Ntungamo, Kakumiro, Kibaale, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Bundibugyo, Kasese, Sheema, Rubanda, Mbale, Namisindwa, Buyende, Kaliro, Namutumba, Mayuge, Kumi, Katakwi, Kitgum and Omoro.

“There are villages that registered full booklets and over flooded to exercise books like at Kikwaya in Kikwaya sub-county in Kakumiro district, Kilera one central cell in Kagarama word, Kagarama town council, Guluma village in Kikoni parish Ntugamo sub-county, Ntugamo district to mention but a few,” Todwong said.

However, according to Wakiso district LC5 chairperson, Matia Lwanga Bwanika (NUP), these are manufactured figures to score future political fraud.

“The NRM yellow book update exercise I don’t think could have generated genuine results because even during the excuse they were quarreling. On top of that, I heard one opposition leader who led his supporters to go and be part of that registration exercise. Such things made the exercise a fraud right away. Therefore, soon or later, the subsequent circumstances will prove that the numbers were merely manufactured mainly for selfish motives,” Bwanika said.

At the onset of the party registration exercise, President Museveni tasked the party registrars to be vigilant and guard against possible infiltration by the opposition.

Sseninde speaks out

However, NRM secretary for mobilisation, recruitment, and cadre development Rosemary Sseninde reminded those doubting the figures that they should remember that NRM since the last elections have not rested, it has been mobilising.

“We have done our part; we have tried to mobilise our people. Of course, during the last elections, people were confused with a lot of propaganda. We also had some confusion amongst ourselves emanating from party primaries that created divisions. But we have noted our challenges and we have been able to come up with mitigation measures,” Sseninde said.

She added: “When we see people coming up to update their membership with the party, to us, it excites because it shows that we have done our work well and whatever it is, we are looking forward to positivity and that is what we have been aiming at and working towards”.

Sseninde indicated that they have been trying to explain to people to make them appreciate where the country has been, where it is now, and where they want it to be tomorrow.

“And any understanding Ugandan would appreciate, reconginising the efforts of the ruling party, the NRM,” he said.

On the low numbers of new members registered around the Kampala metropolitan areas, Sseninde attributed this to the fact that many people in the area were civil servants who went to work and did not have time to register.

“Unfortunately, the time we gave was also short and you know some of our Ugandans are always reluctant to serious issues until deadlines elapse. Many of our supporters I am sure did not register because of that,” she said.

Target achieved

The secretariat informed CEC that they were able to achieve a lot during the exercise because it was among others timely.

“The update occurred at a time when the main Opposition parties in Uganda are in a profound crisis from internal contradictions. Any person wishing to join and subscribe to a political party at this point would consider NRM to be the most viable option to go for. The update, therefore, provided potential members of the opposition with a window to comfortably join the stable NRM,” Todwong said.

He added that the design of the register, provided fields for marking the elderly, people with disabilities (PWDs), and youth.

“This means if SIG (special interest groups) elections were to be held, there would be no need to carry out fresh registration and with the planned digitalisation, it would be easy to filter and/or migrate data of the Special Interest Groups from the members' register,” he said.

The party also highlighted that the inclusion of members' NINs (national identification numbers) would enable NRM to integrate its data with that of the Independent Electoral Commission and that it can easily establish members who are actual voters and those who are not.

“Members who are not voters can then be whipped to register with NIRA and subsequently be included in the national voters' register. Also, the clear separation of roles as spelled out in the guidelines minimised conflicts among the NRM leadership in the districts and facilitated the smooth running of the exercise. The zoning of the country also made it easy for coordination and conducting of the exercise,” Todwong said.

Challenges

Among the challenges reported included low turn-up which was registered in the highlands of Kalangala and Buvuma due to the difficulty in transportation within the highlands. The other areas where low turn-up was experienced were in Pakwach and Amolatar allegedly attributed to mistreatment, torture, and corruption by the fish protection unit among the fishing communities including killing fishermen, confiscating fishing gear, and destroying boats.

ONC (Office of National Chairman), according to the report, lacked a clear direction of duty, causing confusion and interference during the exercise in some districts but also held parallel tallying exercises besides the agreed procedural terms of their engagement. While in the Masaka region, the report cited that some loyalists of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU) discouraged people from the exercise mainly from the Masaka region where Gen.Muhoozi Kaineruga convened a Barraza.

Recommendations

The secretariat recommended to CEC that a window be created during holidays for students and other people who missed the update and registration exercise to get registered and have their details updated in the register.

“The data captured during the update and registration of new members should further be analysed by demography, sub-regions, districts, and the usage of the results to guide mobilisation, communication, and information strategy of the party.

It went on to recommend that as a matter of urgency, the party should resolve existing conflicts and intra-party rivalries among its members at district and national levels before the forthcoming primary elections.

It added that upon attaining a successful update and registration of new members the party should conduct party structure elections to renew the mandate of it’s of the masses.

The secretariat also recommended that the factors that led to the loss of support for the party in some parts of the country like Buganda, and Busoga, among others should be resolved before the next elections and that should be treated as a matter of urgency.

“The updated register should be analyzed and compared with the voters' register of the Independent Electoral Commission, to determine the actual ratio of the party members with that of the voters' register data at the EC to determine the numerical strength of the party and its possibility of winning the next election. The party should agree on a periodic schedule for updating its members' register,” the secretariat further recommended.

It also advised that the party mobilization and communication strategy should target a high voter turn-up of party members in the next election cycle, to leverage the numerical strength of the party.

Comparison with EC data

Pending fresh national voters’ register updates in preparation for the next general election, the current EC national voters’ register has 18,103,603 voters. These were the eligible voters in the 2021 general election.

However, during the Presidential elections, only about 10,400,000, turned up to cast their votes.

The EC figures have been used by some political pundits to doubt the NRM party register latest figures.

Scholars take

However, according to Sarah Birete, an executive director at the Centre for Electoral Democracy (CED), due to the demographic changes with the majority of Ugandans aged between 16 to 18 years, the NRM can attain such a figure.

“I am sure even the EC data for 2026 will automatically change and the voters are projected to reach 26 million. On average we have about 1.5 million Ugandans attaining the voting age every year,” she said.

However, Birete faulted the NRM for using wrong methods during the registration exercise including 'telling people lies that they will not be given national identity cards (IDs) and barred from accessing any national service'.

“It is not that NRM registered people who are willing members of the party, there was misleading information and many people who wouldn’t have registered maybe for NRM, registered so that they are not cut out from national services,” she said.

Lydia Wanyoto, the chairperson of the NRM women's league, insisted that there is no need to doubt the figures, noting that with the forthcoming population census next month and the EC voter register update exercise, the NRM figures will be provided correctly.