How fluctuating coffee prices are impacting Uganda’s young coffee traders

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OPINION

By Allan Asiimwe

In all the main administrative regions of Uganda, coffee is not just a crop; it is a lifeline for millions of people.

As Africa’s top coffee exporter, Uganda relies heavily on this commodity, with Robusta beans forming the backbone of its production. However, as of early February 2026, global coffee prices have taken a sharp downturn.

Arabica futures are trading around 314–308 US cents per pound (down over 12% over the past weeks), while Robusta Coffee prices have also eased, influenced by improved weather and higher supply expectations from Brazil and Vietnam.

This volatility is rippling through Uganda’s coffee sector, hitting young traders extremely hard. With elections on the horizon and mounting economic pressures, the question arises: how can the government step in to stabilise this vital industry?

From a Global perspective, coffee prices have dropped significantly after peaking in early 2025.

Arabica futures have fallen to around 315–308 cents per pound, the lowest since mid-2025, driven by favourable rains in Brazil’s key growing regions and projections for a stronger 2026/27 harvest. Robusta prices (critical for Uganda) have followed suit, with London futures showing declines amid expectations of increased global output.

Uganda’s 2025/26 crop is projected to increase (potentially to around 9 million bags), primarily due to the maturation of coffee trees and government seedling programs, which are expected to rise to 20 million bags by 2030. This clearly reflects the government's emphasis and efforts towards production, hence increased supply.

Numerous young people entered the trade during the high-price years of 2024–2025 and gained meaningful employment with predictable and steadily increasing prices.

However, tables turned with Price volatility leaving young coffee traders, collectors, and small-scale exporters in their 20s and 30 are feeling the pinch most acutely with low or no returns.

Coffee, being a high-value commodity, requires high working capital, which makes it inevitable to involve borrowed capital in trading. This has left the majority of the young traders with Non-performing credit facilities.

Furthermore, most of the young traders have defaulted on contracts due to the unstable coffee prices, which in the end constrains the supply chain.

This predicament calls for combined efforts from both the government under the Coffee Development Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) and the private sector to forge Pathways to stability.

Over the years, coffee production been stabilised, and in the same spirit, the gateway to the markets needs to be stabilised as well.

Deliberate efforts to address Advanced Coffee Trading Capacity gaps have to be implemented to salvage the situation. The majority of the traders are experienced in physical coffee trading but lack knowledge in futures or commodity exchange trading, which entails futures hedging, a vital component of commodity trading. Advanced coffee price risk management capacity-building interventions must be instituted to enable young coffee traders catch up with price volatility risks.

Furthermore, there is a need to push for regional/international agreements to stabilise prices and ensure fairer shares for producers to reduce extreme volatility.

As coffee prices remain soft in early 2026, Uganda’s young traders face real uncertainty, but with targeted government action focusing on youth empowerment, building resilience through price risk management, and value addition, the sector can stabilise and grow.

Investing in the next generation of coffee entrepreneurs is not just good policy; it is essential for Uganda’s economy and rural livelihoods.
The time for stronger intervention is now, before the next cycle of highs and lows hits harder.

The writer is the general manager, Ekam Coffee Limited