From promise to prosperity: Why regional infrastructure is East Africa’s moment

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OPINION

By Olive Kigongo

There are moments in a region’s economic journey when ambition, necessity, and opportunity align. The recent announcement that Uganda and Kenya will collaborate on a refinery in Tanga, alongside renewed commitments to complete the Standard Gauge Railway from Nairobi to Kampala, is one such moment. Add to that the intervention by Aliko Dangote—who has pledged to help deliver the refinery within five years if the region unites—and what emerges is not just a set of projects, but a test of East Africa’s collective will.

At the Uganda National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, we are heartened by these developments. For years, the private sector has argued that the region’s greatest constraint is not a lack of resources, but the absence of coordinated infrastructure to unlock them. These latest signals suggest that our leaders are finally converging around a simple truth: East Africa will not industrialise in isolation.

Consider what is at stake. Uganda sits on commercially viable oil reserves in the Albertine Graben. Kenya offers a strategic coastline and access to global shipping routes. Tanzania, through Tanga, provides a natural outlet for refined products. Yet for decades, these advantages have remained fragmented—each country pursuing parallel strategies, often duplicating costs and diluting impact. A shared refinery, backed by regional commitment, would mark a decisive shift from competition to collaboration.

The same logic applies to the Standard Gauge Railway. The incomplete link between Nairobi and Kampala is more than a missing track—it is a bottleneck in the region’s economic artery. Every day, businesses across Uganda face high logistics costs, long transit times, and unpredictable supply chains. These inefficiencies are not abstract; they are embedded in the price of every bag of cement, every litre of fuel, every export consignment.

Complete the railway, and the equation changes. Transport costs fall. Trade volumes rise. Industries become more competitive. And perhaps most importantly, the region begins to function as a single market in practice, not just in policy.

This is why these projects matter. They are not simply infrastructure investments; they are enablers of productivity. They are the difference between exporting raw materials and building value chains. Between subsistence enterprise and scalable industry.

From the vantage point of the business community, the case for regional infrastructure has always been clear. We have seen how fragmented markets limit growth. We have seen how small, disconnected economies struggle to attract large-scale investment. And we have seen how, when markets integrate—even partially—capital follows.

It is in this context that Dangote’s interest becomes particularly noteworthy. Fresh from completing the Dangote Refinery—the largest on the continent—he brings not just capital, but hard-won experience in executing complex, capital-intensive industrial projects. That refinery is already producing refined fuels and fertiliser, demonstrating how a single, well-executed investment can catalyse entire value chains. His willingness to replicate a version of that model in East Africa signals confidence in the region’s potential, but also offers a subtle lesson: scale matters. Integrated projects that combine refining with petrochemicals and fertiliser production create deeper economic linkages, support agriculture and industry simultaneously, and generate the kind of multiplier effects that smaller, fragmented investments simply cannot match.

Indeed, investors of that scale do not commit lightly. They are drawn to projects that offer not just returns, but certainty—certainty of demand, of policy alignment, of execution. His condition—that the region must come together—is both a challenge and an opportunity. It underscores what we have long known: that the private sector will invest where governments coordinate.

There is also a deeper lesson here about timing. Across the region, structural shifts are already underway. Uganda’s financial markets are deepening, with longer-dated government bonds providing a benchmark for long-term capital. Domestic savings institutions are growing in scale and sophistication. Export profiles are diversifying, with new sectors emerging alongside traditional staples. These are not isolated developments; they are the building blocks of a more resilient economy.

But without infrastructure, their full potential remains unrealised.

A refinery in Tanga would anchor a regional energy ecosystem—reducing import dependence, stabilising fuel supply, and creating downstream industries. The SGR would knit together production centres and markets, lowering the cost of doing business and expanding the reach of enterprises. Together, they would form the backbone of a more integrated, more competitive East Africa.

Of course, ambition must be matched by execution. The region has seen projects announced with great fanfare, only to stall under the weight of financing gaps, policy misalignment, or bureaucratic inertia. This time must be different. The stakes are too high, and the opportunity too significant.

What is required now is clarity of purpose and consistency of action. Governments must align regulatory frameworks, streamline decision-making, and provide the policy certainty that investors demand. Financing models must be structured to balance public interest with private participation. And timelines must be realistic, but firm.

The private sector, for its part, stands ready to play its role. At the Uganda National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, we see ourselves as a bridge between policy and practice, between government ambition and business execution. We are prepared to mobilise our members, to provide feedback on project design, and to support the development of local supply chains that will sustain these investments.

But beyond institutions, this is ultimately about mindset. For too long, we have approached development through a national lens, measuring progress in isolation. Yet the realities of modern economics demand a broader view. Markets are regional. Supply chains are regional. Competitiveness is regional.

If East Africa is to realise its potential, it must think—and act—accordingly.

The collaboration between Uganda and Kenya on the Tanga refinery and the renewed push on the SGR are steps in the right direction. They signal a recognition that our futures are intertwined. That prosperity in one country is amplified, not diminished, by prosperity in its neighbours.

As the business community, we welcome this shift. We applaud the leadership that has brought these conversations to the fore. And we reaffirm our commitment to supporting their successful implementation.

The path to prosperity is rarely straightforward. But with shared vision, coordinated action, and sustained commitment, it is within reach. East Africa has the resources. It has the talent. And now, perhaps, it has the resolve.

The task before us is to turn that resolve into reality.

The author is the President of the Uganda National Chamber of Commerce & Industry