Developmental gains, structural shifts under the NRM Government

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OPINION

By Steven Kaliba

The accession of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) to power in 1986 marked a pivotal shift in Uganda’s political and economic trajectory.

It moved the nation from decades of protracted civil conflict and institutional decay, towards a period of sustained economic growth and social development.

The most critical achievement of the NRM was undoubtedly the re-establishment of political stability and nationwide peace.

This stability was not merely a political victory, but the necessary bedrock for all subsequent developments in infrastructure, human capital, and the economy.

For a generation of Ugandans, this abstract concept of “security” translated into a tangible reality: the freedom to plant crops without fear of displacement, or the ability to send a child to school knowing they would return safely. This fundamental human gain validated the Government’s broader agenda.

Foundation of Recovery: 1986 Baseline

To understand the scale of the current trajectory, one must recall the profound crisis of the mid-1980s.

By 1986, the economy was stagnant, and public infrastructure had collapsed, making internal trade and administration nearly impossible. Uganda’s gross domestic product (GDP) stood at a volatile $3.92b, reflecting an economy ravaged by instability.

The physical infrastructure was particularly in dire straits. Of the 7,900km national road network, only 1,900km was tarmacked, and critically, only 114km of that paved network was deemed to be in fair condition.

The immediate policy challenge was not new construction but costly rehabilitation.

Consequently, the initial focus on national security was, in effect, the most crucial economic policy of the time, as it secured the environment needed for these high-cost investments to eventually pay off.

Macroeconomic gains and fiscal stewardship

Since the late 1980s, Uganda has transitioned from post-conflict volatility to sustained expansion.

The restoration of security yielded immediate economic returns, with GDP rising to $6.51b by 1988. This momentum has largely been sustained, with recent forecasts projecting growth rates of 5.9% for 2024 and an acceleration to 7.5% for 2025.

Today, the nominal size of the economy has expanded massively, reaching approximately sh227.8 trillion (roughly $60b) in the 2024/25 fiscal year.

While government debt has risen to around 51.8% of GDP to finance infrastructure and energy projects, this borrowing has been driven by the need to shift the economy from basic recovery to industrial productivity.

Connecting the nation: the infrastructure revolution

The most visible evidence of the NRM’s impact lies in the transformation of the country’s physical landscape.

The national paved road network has grown from that dilapidated 1,900km in 1986 to approximately 6,199km by 2025 — a 226% increase. This expansion has dramatically reduced transport costs, linking rural farmers to markets and connecting regional centres for internal trade. Concurrently, the energy sector has undergone a revolution. The commissioning of large hydropower projects like Isimba (183MW) and the recent Karuma Hydropower Dam (600MW) has boosted Uganda’s total installed capacity to over 2,000MW.

This addresses the chronic power shortages that plagued manufacturers for decades and signals a structural shift towards enabling large-scale industrialisation.

The railway sector is also poised for transformation. While the legacy Meter Gauge Railway network of 1,266km is being rehabilitated to boost trade on the Northern Corridor, the future lies in the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR).

With the planned construction of the 1,724km SGR network — starting with the Malaba-Kampala section — Uganda aims to drastically reduce import and export costs, a vital move for a landlocked nation.

Human development, governance reforms

Beyond bricks and mortar, there has been a significant investment in people. The Human Development Index has improved from 0.342 in 1990 to 0.582 today, placing Uganda in the “medium development” category. This leap is underpinned by policy shifts such as Universal Primary Education (1997) and Universal Secondary Education (2007), alongside improvements in life expectancy driven by successful public health campaigns against HIV/AIDS and malaria.

On the governance front, the NRM restructured the political landscape to promote participation.

The introduction of the Local Council system created a participatory democracy from the village level up, a radical devolution initiative formalised in the Local Governments Act of 1997. Furthermore, the restoration of constitutionalism via the 1995 Constitution established essential institutions like the Inspector General of Government and the Uganda Human Rights Commission to provide checks and balances.

The next horizon: oil and gas

Looking ahead, the most significant structural shift will be driven by the oil and gas sector.

With the development of the Albertine Graben fields and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline — which is over 50% complete as of early 2025 — the country is on track for “First Oil” by mid-2026.

This development is expected to accelerate real GDP growth to double digits (projected at 10.4%) in the 2026/27 fiscal year.

The Government’s strategy is to channel these petroleum revenues into non-oil sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism.

The ultimate success of the NRM’s developmental legacy will hinge on this phase: effectively managing oil wealth to prevent the “resource curse” and ensuring that the economic gains translate into durable stability and jobs for Uganda’s rapidly expanding youth population.

The writer is a former lecturer at Makerere University. Member of the 8th Parliament of Uganda, former prime minister of Toro Kingdom