Crisis of low voter turnout and fight to reclaim democracy

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OPINION

By Jonas Mbabazi Musinga

In Kampala’s bustling downtown or the browning hills of Kabaale, one might expect democracy to echo in ballot boxes, in long queues of eager citizens choosing their leaders. Yet across Uganda, from urban youth to rural elders, the silence of near-empty polling stations is becoming more deafening. With national voter turnout steadily declining from 72% in 1996 to a projected 50–53% in 2026, Uganda’s democratic heartbeat is faltering.

Low voter turnout in Uganda is not just a statistical concern; it is a democratic alarm bell. Elections are meant to reflect the will of the people, but when the majority stay home, elected governments risk ruling without a mandate.

In Uganda’s case, the implications are even graver: voter apathy is deepening political distrust, weakening public institutions, and pushing the nation closer to a governance crisis.

The numbers behind the decline

The downward trajectory of electoral participation in Uganda is stark. In 1996, shortly after the country adopted a new constitution, turnout stood at an encouraging 72%. But by 2011, it had dropped to 59.3%, and in 2021, hit a low of 57.2%—the worst in three decades. Provisional reports from the 2026 elections suggest turnout may have dipped further, hovering just above 50%.

Local elections have fared even worse. The 2018 Local Council I elections—infamously conducted by lining up behind candidates—recorded just 28.3% participation nationally, with Kampala districts reporting turnout below 15%.

Uganda’s voter roll paints a paradox: over 78% of the population is under 30, yet youth voting is alarmingly low. According to Afrobarometer, only 35% of eligible youth aged 18–24 voted in 2021. By 2026, civic organisations estimated that the number had fallen even further.

A system of deterrence

Why are Ugandans abandoning the vote? The answers lie in a complex blend of fear, fatigue, and frustration. One significant factor is electoral violence and intimidation. In 2021, Human Rights Watch reported widespread pre-election violence, including the killing of 54 protestors in November 2020 following the arrest of opposition leader Bobi Wine.

In high-tension districts, 40% of voters reported fearing violence at polling stations. For many, the risk of showing up outweighs the democratic reward.

Trust in the Electoral Commission has also eroded. Only 23% of Ugandans expressed confidence in the Commission in 2022. Many view it as a partisan institution controlled by the presidency, echoing the sentiments of pundits who describe it as “an administrative arm of the incumbent regime”.

Moreover, Uganda’s party politics lack ideological substance. Instead of offering real policy alternatives, parties are often fragmented, personality-driven, and ethnically polarised.

A 2023 youth survey by GLISS found that 57% of young respondents believed elections “do not lead to meaningful change”.

There are also structural barriers: over 3 million Ugandans of voting age remain unregistered, largely due to documentation challenges or lack of access to registration centres.

In rural regions like Kasese and Karamoja, polling stations can be miles away, making participation physically and financially taxing. In 2021, over 400,000 voters were reportedly turned away due to mismatches between ID documents and voter rolls.

Economic hardship exacerbates the problem. With 21% of the population living below the poverty line, many Ugandans cannot afford to spend a day voting when their priority is daily survival.

The cost of political apathy

Low voter turnout is more than a reflection of disengagement—it has real consequences for governance and stability. When elected leaders lack a broad mandate, their legitimacy is called into question.

This perception fuels political cynicism, further reducing participation and fostering cycles of exclusion. It’s a democratic erosion from within.

As formal avenues of political expression become ineffective, alternative forms of protest are rising. Movements like People Power, largely youth-driven, tap into the anger of those who feel disenfranchised by a system they no longer believe in. If this disillusionment continues unaddressed, Uganda risks facing widespread urban unrest, especially given its youth bulge.

Meanwhile, corruption festers in the vacuum of civic accountability. With few citizens scrutinising their leaders or demanding transparency, public resources are mismanaged. Local governments—responsible for a significant share of service delivery—account for 35% of corruption cases in the country, according to Transparency International Uganda (2024).

Uganda’s standing on the international stage is also at risk. After the controversial 2021 elections, the European Union suspended direct budgetary support to the government, citing democratic backsliding. Continued voter apathy could further erode donor confidence and limit access to crucial foreign aid.

The road to reengagement

Despite these bleak trends, Uganda’s democratic future is not doomed. Several interventions—many already proposed by local reformists and civil society actors—offer a path forward.

Restoring the independence of the Electoral Commission is critical. A reformed appointment process, involving bipartisan parliamentary scrutiny and civil society input, would help rebuild public trust. Adequate funding and operational autonomy are essential to ensure neutrality. Modernising and enhancing decentralised voter registration could address access barriers. Integrating the National ID system with the EC database is commendable. Intensifying the deployment of mobile registration units to remote areas and allowing continuous registration would significantly expand the electorate.

At the heart of the issue is knowledge. Revamping civic education through schools, community forums, and media in local languages can empower citizens to understand—and act upon—their rights.

Addressing electoral violence requires clear enforcement of laws and the establishment of independent electoral offences tribunals. Community policing, training of security forces, and guaranteed protection for all political actors would reduce the threat environment that currently shadows election seasons.

Political parties, too, must evolve. They should democratise internal processes, field diverse candidates, and focus on issue-based platforms rather than patronage and ethnicity. Without credible alternatives, voter choice remains symbolic at best.

Technology could also be a game-changer. Biometric verification, mobile voter information apps, and SMS reminders can help streamline voting and improve transparency. But these must be paired with efforts to bridge the digital divide so rural and low-income voters are not left behind. Finally, democracy should not begin and end at the ballot box. Uganda must institutionalise continuous civic engagement—through citizen budgeting forums, local barazas, and grassroots policy dialogues—to ensure that voters see tangible outcomes from their participation.

Democracy at a Crossroads

Uganda’s story is not unique, but it is urgent. In a region where democratic backsliding is becoming the norm, low voter turnout is not just an electoral concern—it is a warning sign of systemic decay.

Reclaiming democracy in Uganda requires more than technical fixes. It demands courage—from institutions willing to reform, from citizens willing to engage, and from leaders willing to relinquish control in service of the common good. Uganda is at a crossroads. It can continue down the path of apathy and authoritarianism—or chart a new course of civic renewal and democratic legitimacy. The ballot may be silent now, but with bold reforms, it can once again speak for the people.

The writer is a research Fellow at the ACODE