Bobi Wine: Foreign lobbying vs local reality

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OPINION

The supporters of the National Unity Platform (NUP) are eager about the news that their leader, Robert Kyagulanyi, is in the US engaging with “friends and allies.” The engagement is part of his campaign to have Uganda sanctioned. He is also seeking sanctions against President Yoweri Museveni, the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), and other military and security officials.

The NUP leader, in a message to his supporters, announced that he was making a “brief exit from the country to handle important work. Over the weeks, I will engage with our friends and allies all over the world before returning to Uganda to continue the push for freedom and democracy.”

Kyagulanyi went into hiding on January 15, the day elections were held. He disappeared from public view after casting his vote. During this period, he posted videos showing he was at various locations in Uganda, claiming the military was hunting him and that his life was under threat. However, the videos could not be independently verified.

There are three possible explanations for his decision to go into hiding.

One possibility is that the disappearance was choreographed, creating an image of a leader who was difficult to locate. This could have been a continuation of his campaign tactics, such as wearing body armour and a bulletproof helmet, which projected him as a person under threat. At times, he appeared to provoke police action by deviating from agreed routes, leading to confrontations that reinforced this narrative.

The second possibility is that he feared his campaign statements could attract police attention and lead to questioning. At one rally, Kyagulanyi stated in Luganda: “Bwe tukwatta emunddu, obusajja tubusobola. Tuli bangi, tuli batto” (if we took up arms, we could defeat them because we are many and young).

Throughout the campaign, he argued that Uganda’s security forces were numerically small compared to the country’s population of about 46 million and could be overwhelmed in an uprising.

Other NUP leaders echoed similar statements. One senior official claimed that in a patrol column, only one officer carries a loaded gun and should, therefore, be targeted, remarks that drew cheers from supporters at campaign rallies.

The third possibility is that the Police and army may have been seeking Kyagulanyi and other NUP officials for questioning over concerns about a potential uprising.

Whatever the reason for his disappearance, it contributed to a narrative of an opposition leader on the run. The deployment of security personnel at his home further reinforced this perception.

In NUP’s calculations, whether accurate or not, the expectation was that they had to win the election. They reason that President Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) are unpopular, have ruled for too long, and that Ugandans have not experienced a leadership change since 1986. They also argue that the Government has failed to develop the country, done nothing for the people and that human rights abuses are widespread.

So, the loss of the January election contradicted the opposition party’s standpoint that ‘Kyagulanyi and NUP either win or President Museveni and NRM lose.’

In the poll, President Museveni of the NRM received 7,946,722 votes (71.65%), while Kyagulanyi was runner-up with 2,741,238 votes (24.72%).

In parliamentary elections, NRM won 370 out of 529 seats (71.1%), while NUP won 49. This week, about 30 independents signed a memorandum of understanding with NRM, raising its strength to 400 seats. This sustained dominance has enabled NRM over the years to make constitutional changes, including removing presidential term and age limits, and now gives it leverage to make further amendments if necessary.

At the local government level, NRM won 117 out of 146 district (LC5) seats (80.1%), while NUP secured 7 (4.8%). The trend continued down to lower levels, such as LC3, where NRM also won by large margins.

Despite these results, Kyagulanyi and NUP remain unconvinced, alleging electoral malpractice. It is the trend. After the 2021 elections, they petitioned the court, claiming the elections were rigged, but later withdrew the case, citing judicial bias, and instead turned to what he called the “people’s court,” which did not alter the outcome. He tried out his “friends and allies” in the West. Then, speculation spiralled in 2021 that the US might intervene militarily to remove President Museveni and install Kyagulanyi. NUP supporters circulated claims about a US warship docking in Mombasa, accompanied by the slogan “Tajja Kulaila” (meaning President Museveni would not be sworn in). While a warship was indeed present, it was part of routine operations, similar to the French naval vessels with hundreds of troops docking at the same port two weeks ago.

Following the 2026 election loss, Kyagulanyi’s disappearance in Uganda and subsequent appearance in the US have renewed expectations among supporters that he is seeking external assistance to end President Museveni’s rule. Before this, he addressed audiences virtually at the Geneva Summit for Human Rights and Democracy and the Delegation to the AU–EU Parliamentary Assembly (not the full EU Parliament), where he claimed his victory had been stolen and that Uganda was unsafe.

His presence in the US has fuelled narratives among supporters that the NRM leadership is under pressure and uncertain about what lies ahead. Some draw comparisons with events in Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro and ongoing tensions involving Iran and the US, suggesting Uganda could face similar developments.

This raises the question of whether Uganda poses a threat significant enough to attract such intervention.

Kyagulanyi, a musician-turned-politician, has positioned himself to his supporters as an ally of the West, including the US, and as someone capable of securing international backing.

However, his outreach comes at a time when US foreign policy priorities under President Donald Trump are focused on domestic agendas such as “Make America Great Again,” as well as global issues, including tensions with Iran and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict.

In seeking Western support, Kyagulanyi is following a path taken by previous opposition figures who used lobbying networks to engage foreign leaders.

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