Analysing Putin's stance on US sanctions and escalation

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OPINION

By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

Dear Editor, last month, on October 22, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced that he had cancelled his planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was scheduled to take place in the next two weeks in Budapest, Hungary. He told reporters at the White House that "It just didn't feel right to me," and that he did not want a "wasted meeting."

Almost simultaneously, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil companies, Open Joint Stock Company Rosneft Oil Company (Rosneft) and Lukoil OAO (Lukoil). Soon afterwards, the European Union also imposed another round of anti-Russian sanctions on items such as toilets, motorised toys, puzzles, and tricycles.

When a journalist asked Putin to comment on the fact that the EU had cancelled the purchase of Russian toilets, he jokingly retorted that that would cost them dearly. He advised that they would generally “actually need them in today’s situation if they continue to pursue the same policy toward the Russian Federation.” While this sounds both like a joke but also a stern warning to Europe, I think EU leaders had better heed his word. Better to err on the side of caution.

We should remember that Putin and Trump held talks on August 15, 2025, at the Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War. Although the summit ended without an agreement being announced, Trump later called on Ukraine to take responsibility for the next steps of ending the war by ceding territory.

Both the Alaska meeting itself and the place where it was to be held were proposed by the American side. Moreover, in an undiplomatic act of intimidation against Putin, as the two leaders walked to the platform where the meeting was to commence, the United States Air Force fighters and a B-2 bomber flew overhead. However, Putin, gentlemanly, never made a fuss of it.

Speaking about Trump’s decision to cancel or postpone the Hungary meeting, Putin rightly said that dialogue is always better than any confrontation or, all the more so, than war. Russia has never shied away from holding any dialogues. The ball has often been in America’s court to determine when and where.

As for the sanctions that have been further imposed against Russia, this is the same old game, nothing new. Just like it was in the past, whereas the sanctions will certainly affect Russia in some way, they have proved to be incapable of significantly denting its economy. In his first term, Trump introduced the largest number of sanctions that had ever been imposed against the Russian Federation up to that time. The sanctions have both a political and an economic aspect.

Politically, the West uses sanctions to try to pressure Russia to negotiate out of weakness. However, Putin’s stance is gritty. He asserts that “No self-respecting country and no self-respecting people ever make any decisions under pressure.” Undoubtedly, if anyone has read European history, they would know that Russia towers through history as one of the most self-respecting countries and peoples.

It is also misguided for America to continue economic sanctions toward Russia, as it weakens the Russian-American relations, which have only just begun to recover.

The sanctions are also likely to puncture America’s economy itself, so they are shooting themselves in the foot. Today, the United States produces about 13.5 million barrels per day, ranking first. In second place is Saudi Arabia, producing around 10 million, and the Russian Federation is in third, with about 9.5 million barrels per day. However, the United States consumes 20 million. They sell some of their oil and then buy even more, mainly from Canada.

So, producing 13.5 and consuming 20 million barrels is not a very good position to be in, and worse, sanctioning one of your key trade partners. On the other hand, Russia and Saudi Arabia sell more oil and petroleum products. Saudi Arabia sells about 9 million tons of oil and petroleum products to foreign markets, while the Russian Federation sells 7.5 million tons. That means Russia’s contribution to the global energy balance is very significant.

Therefore, Trump’s move to break the balance that Russia brings to the global energy market is a very reckless task, which will most certainly affect American interests too. To replace the contribution of Russian oil and petroleum products on the world market is harder than Trump may comprehend, since it takes time and requires large investments.

The consequences of the sanctions are now bare, and can be seen in how the International Energy Agency is even proposing and encouraging participants in economic activity to invest in hydrocarbon energy, contrary to the contemporary acclamations for going green. Additionally, Trump seems not to understand or outrightly ignore the fact that the world economy is growing, and energy consumption is increasing. So, it is not possible to sharply increase production at once, at whim.

Economic principles also make it obvious that if the amount of oil and petroleum products on the world market sharply decreases, prices will rise. Putin minced no words in cautioning Trump about the sensitivity of such a downward spiral of things and the political consequences it would have on the United States electoral calendar.

It is commonplace to conclude now that it is in the interest of Trump and everybody to break the escalation of this conflict; otherwise, in the end, we shall all lose.

The writer is a senior research fellow, Development Watch Centre