Africa must reposition as China recalibrates after Fourth CPC Plenary

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OPINION

By George Musiime    

The 20^th Central Committee of the Communist Party held its fourth plenary session between October 20th and 24th, 2025, during which a new 5-year plan (2026-2031) was adopted. While it might be tempting to dismiss China’s five-year plan as a domestic affair, this plan will, among other things, provide the scaffolding for China’s foreign policy over the next five 5-years.

In this five-year plan, the world’s 2^nd largest economy outlines its strategy for thriving amidst a perilous international system. The key question, therefore, is what the evolution in Africa’s biggest trading partner means for the continent’s development ambitions. As China emphasises deepening reforms, high-quality development, refining regional economic layout and coordinated economic development, modernisation and self-reliance, Africa must also undertake strategic realignments of its own to deepen cooperation and maintain its development aspirations.

The communique of last week’s 4^th plenary session of the central committee doubled down on ensuring development and security, advancing high-quality development, and improving science and technology self-reliance. This came against a backdrop of an uncertain trade environment and growing protectionism, especially regarding technology products.

The ban on exports of AI chips by the United States, for example, compounds into risks to the country’s technological aspirations. Conversely, linking steering new science and technology, quality production and modern industrial systems with refining regional economic layouts, China aims to build resilience against similar shocks in global supply chains.

Furthermore, evidence of past positive initiatives to increase investments in Africa, spur industrialisation, and technology transfers between China and Africa shows that, through proper alignment, Africa can continue to reap strategic benefits from China’s high-quality development.

A potential shift from large-scale infrastructure projects towards digital and green project financing. Africa has been on the receiving end of billions of dollars in large infrastructure project financing for roads, rail, and hydropower over the past 2 decades, yet a possible shift towards green and digital projects will still not come as a shock for some reason. In 2021, for example, China made a commitment not to invest in new coal projects – mirroring a shift in its global strategy towards green energy sources.

Moreover, China’s strategy for Africa is structured in linked phases to support Africa’s modernisation path. Following consistent investment in infrastructure through the BRI, for instance, President Xi announced, at the Johannesburg BRI conference in 2023, three measures of focus for Africa’s modernisation, i.e. industrialisation, agricultural modernisation and talent development.

Obviously, these measures could only be layered over previous achievements in addressing bottlenecks in infrastructure. With a fast-growing population also comes increased potential for greenhouse emissions and other challenges. Thus, harnessing this shift could be an opportunity to position the continent for the increasingly green and digital future that is to come.

The emphasis given to self-reliance and high-quality development at the last plenary session further underscores China’s view of strategic independence in an uncertain world, and as a corollary, a stronger global South solidarity. Stronger southern solidarity has long been a cornerstone of China’s call for multipolar diplomacy, and for Africa, this means increased wiggle-room in the continent’s interactions with the international system.

Whereas China has accumulated substantial resources to get along in the existing global system, as the leading member of the global south, reasserting its independence against international bullying directly reinforces the position of the region, where Africa is a major constituent.

One area that is likely to see the least disruptive changes, though, is governance. In many ways, for countries of the global south, China has become a source of policy learning. With special focus given to upholding leadership, putting people first in last week’s session, we’re likely to see further fine-tuning of China’s governance model, long-term.

Under the continuing China-Africa friendship, cooperation, exchanges and experience sharing will be an opportunity to refine Africa’s own governance in order to stay on track towards the continent’s own development aspirations, including Agenda 2063. Nevertheless, as we are constantly cautioned, this cannot be treated as an ideological transplant because national realities play a major role in the final outcome. A focus on what is workable and tailoring ideas to national realities must remain at the core of this ideological learning.

The resolutions of the 4^th plenary session will, without a doubt, provide a strategic anchor point for the totality of China-Africa cooperation over the coming five years. Keeping this reality in mind, the task for Africa’s policy makers needs to be on viewing this development pragmatically rather than religiously.

Indeed, Africa must step up to the challenge and become a co-architect in building mutually beneficial engagements if the continent is to stay steadfast in pursuing its aspirations. For indigenous inspiration, the continent can look to South Africa’s role in the BRICS partnership. Whereas Africa aspires for a fairer and equitable world, a deficit of African agency will complicate and stifle the attainment of this aspiration.

As Africa works towards its development goals, China is increasingly becoming a major partner in different ways – from trade and commerce, green innovations, science and technology and governance, among others. The reality is, Africa’s and China’s destinies are increasingly becoming meshed together and to the continent,  last week’s resolutions are far from mere domestic reforms.

As the continent’s major partner, China’s domestic economic and political evolutions will certainly influence the continent’s development landscape. Now, whether this is in a positive or negative direction will greatly depend on Africa’s ability to align its strategy with evolving trends in its partners’ strategy and playing an active role in the ensuing engagements.

The writer is a research fellow at the Development Watch Centre