2026 elections: Early indicators favour NRM, NUP

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OPINION

By David Mukholi

Internal party democracy, recent opinion polls and defections offer early signs of the likely winner of the 2026 elections. However, these are just initial indications; the polls are six months away, and circumstances can change.

Political parties are busy preparing for the elections. Even politicians planning to run as independents are laying the groundwork. Increasing inter- and intra-party tensions and competition mean that the party that manages these best and develops the strongest strategy will have the best chance of winning.

Internal candidate selection processes within parties provide early hints of a party’s readiness to take power and highlight democratic credentials that can attract voters.

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) conducts comprehensive party primaries and elects grassroots party officials as well. Whether you love it or hate it, the party has a solid foundation that it leverages at every election. This foundation not only ensures candidates in every constituency, but also campaigns agents nationwide at every administrative level.

Its elections resemble national polls. For instance, there is a party register; only party members are allowed to vote, campaigns are intense with high turnout, and the country often comes to a standstill on voting days.

The ruling party enters the general election with the advantage of incumbency, showcasing what has been accomplished and what is planned for the next five years.

It will present stability, peace, and socio-economic transformation as its top achievements.

Success largely depends on how NRM presents its messages and what voters think.

Also, the message of the rival political parties matters; if it is convincing, it could sway voters. If it is the usual rhetoric, NRM will face a much easier campaign.

With President Yoweri Museveni as its presidential candidate, the party is united and enjoys broad support.

The organisation and process of NRM elections give him and the party an edge over rivals.

In many rural areas, winning the NRM primaries is often seen as a ticket to victory in the national polls, making the contest to be the flagbearer highly competitive. The party continues to dominate Parliament and has been boosted by four defectors — one from the National Unity Platform (NUP), two from Democratic Change (FDC), and an independent, bringing the total to 346 MPs.

Over the weekend, a New Vision opinion poll put President Museveni ahead of the other likely presidential candidates, with 73.3% saying they would vote for him.

The survey, which is the first, ahead of the 2026 elections, had NUP’s president, Robert Kyagulanyi, with 19% followed by Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) president, Jimmy Akena, with 2.4%.

The opinion poll also revealed Kizza Besigye of People’s Freedom Front (PFF) with 2.3%, Mugisha Muntu, the leader of Action for National Transformation (ANT), with 1%, and Patrick Amuriat of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) also with 1%.

NUP, Uganda’s second-largest political party, has already endorsed Kyagulanyi for a second run for president. The party has a long-drawn-out process of selecting its candidates. Unlike the NRM, a vetting process is used, and the final decision is made in the boardroom by a panel. This process may result in the disgruntlement of some members, possibly leading to defections.

Already, internal disagreements have led four MPs to break away and form the Democratic Front (DF), headed by former NUP vice president for Buganda, Matthias Mpuuga.

Nonetheless, the party’s numbers in Parliament increased by seven legislators crossing from FDC, Democratic Party (DP), and independents.

The party’s stronghold in central Uganda remains its best chance for a good performance.

It is yet to be seen whether NUP will field candidates in all positions nationwide.

The party states that all 40,000 forms for expressions of interest to carry its flags have been picked up, with more printed, claiming it is a sign of its popularity. NUP’s campaign message focuses on human rights, constitutionalism and ending what it terms as dictatorship. Time will tell if these issues gain traction with the voters. The party heads to the 2026 poll after the Kawempe North byelection, in which its candidate Erias Nalukoola won.

Although the court annulled the result, the party has appealed, and he retains the seat.

However, the party faces a court injunction blocking its activities due to an ownership dispute in which Kyagulanyi’s team is accused of disregarding the original NUP founders. Though seemingly manageable, it is a major distraction. PFF, a new party, will appear on the ballot, but is essentially a splinter from FDC. It has begun internal processes to elect flagbearers, but has mostly deserters sticking with their old constituencies, so fierce competition for party tickets is unlikely.

Its main rival is its parent party, FDC, which will compete for seats in central and western Uganda. FDC is now mainly confined to the eastern region. UPC also plans to participate in the 2026 elections. It is yet to be confirmed whether Akena will run for president. Though the party’s support has dwindled over the years, it remains strong in the Lango sub-region.

UPC has a working relationship with NRM, and one of its MPs, Beti Amongi, is a cabinet minister.

DP, Uganda’s oldest political party, has held its national delegates’ conference, re-electing Norbert Mao as party president and presidential candidate for 2026. His election has not resolved internal divisions, so the party heads into the elections divided.

Internal conflicts have caused a drop in DP’s parliamentary strength after three MPs defected to NUP. It is still unclear whether Mao will run for president. He led DP to sign a memorandum of understanding with NRM in 2022 and was appointed minister.

DF provides a home to those who will fall out of both NUP and DP in central Uganda.

For now, it does not pose a threat to the two but rather is positioned opportunistically to tap into their weaknesses. So far, it has four MPs, all previously with NUP.

While NRM has not lost any MPs through defections, NUP has lost some but gained others. The stage for the 2026 poll is set.

dmukholi@gmial.com X @dmukholi1