2026 battle lines drawn, race for president begins

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OPINION

Presidential candidates began their campaigns this week.

By Thursday, all eight candidates were busy canvassing for votes. The absence of major clashes so far is a positive sign for the democratic process.

The ruling National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) flag-bearer, President Yoweri Museveni, launched his campaign in Luwero, a symbolic choice.

It was in Luwero that he and his colleagues declared war in 1981, which five years later brought him to power.

Luwero is undoubtedly the birthplace of the NRM, making it the ideal place for him to start his campaign. He does so every election, not only for historical reasons, but this time to signal determination to win back Luwero and the Buganda region, which he lost to Robert Kyagulanyi of the National Unity Platform (NUP) in 2021.

Since the last elections, much has happened. The Parish Development Model (PDM), a flagship programme from the 2021-2016 NRM manifesto, has injected sh100m annually in each parish in Uganda to boost household incomes and grassroots economic growth. Individuals receive sh1m repayable over two years.

In Luwero, President Museveni further pledged to triple the money to sh300m per parish annually. The people cheered.

The NRM’s 2026-2031 manifesto, boldly titled ‘Protecting the Gains’, counters critics who claim there are no gains.

At his opening rally, he listed achievements, including the PDM, which some voters would want protected.

According to the new manifesto, 4.1 million households have benefited from PDM funds.

“The beneficiaries have invested in the following: livestock such as piggery, goats, cattle, sheep and poultry (48%), food and cash crops like coffee, tea, maize, cassava, onions, bananas, and Irish potatoes (45%); other enterprises (7%).”

For these Ugandans, the call to “protect the gains” is not an abstract slogan; it is about safeguarding tangible achievements.

From Luwero, President Museveni headed to Lango sub-region, which is an entry into the northern region which voted 68.3% in 2021. He will campaign in northern Uganda for the rest of October.

Kyagulanyi launched his campaign in Kagoma town council in Jinja district, where he also launched NUP’s manifesto. His campaign message started with a focus on constitutional and human rights.

While he pledged to “restore presidential term and age limits,” his message risks appearing detached from the everyday concerns of voters who are getting PDM money. “I will restore the rule of law and respect for human rights,” he told his supporters.

His decision to start his campaign in Busoga was a calculated move at capitalising on NUP’s 2021 performance. Kyagulanyi narrowly edged President Museveni in Busoga with 437,059 votes against 404,868.

In that election, and also now, he told the people that NRM had done nothing for them. His choice of Busoga also sought to exploit Rebecca Kadaga’s loss in the bid to retain the position of second national vice-chairperson (female) of the NRM. In her homecoming celebration a few weeks ago, Kadaga attracted an excited crowd of both NRM and NUP supporters.

Interesting, some NUP supporters donning the red overalls and berets chanted in front of the cameras, saying she had done a lot for Busoga.

Former Speaker of Parliament and currently the First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of East African Affairs, Kadaga, is also the Woman MP for Kamuli district on the NRM ticket. If she has done so much for the region, it could render the narrative of neglect of Busoga weak.

At his rallies in Kamuli and Kaliro, Kyagulanyi repeatedly hinted at the wish to work with Kadaga. However, she has maintained that for now, she has no intentions of abandoning NRM, a party she has belonged to for all of her political life since 1989.

Starting the campaign in Busoga was also intended to deflect the party fallout in Kampala and the Buganda sub-region, where the NUP enjoy huge support.

On the eve of the campaign, the party conveniently released the long-awaited list of its flag-bearers for the parliamentary elections.

Several incumbents were dropped in a selection process that involved interviewing candidates and weighing their strengths in the constituencies.

It is, however, flawed due to a lack of transparency, which undermines the democratic principles that NUP claims to espouse.

With all the top leaders accompanying Kyagulanyi on the campaign trail in Busoga, there was no one to attend to the disgruntled losers.

Nevertheless, the story is not dead; the fallout has played out in the media and could affect NUP’s performance in Buganda. With NRM determined to regain Buganda, the divisions in NUP favour it both in the presidential and parliamentary races. After Busoga, Kyagulanyi will move to parts of Buganda for some days and return to eastern Uganda.

The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) presidential candidate, Nandala Mafabi, began his campaign in Buikwe district. Drawing on the former party president, Kizza Besigye’s past performance, attempting to tap into old loyalties.

Nandala, who is also the FDC secretary general, is out on a journey to reawaken the FDC’s previous support bases.

In 2016, the last election that Besigye contested for president, he garnered 41.99% of the votes in Buikwe, while President Museveni got 55.11%.

In Buvuma, the FDC candidate had 38.41% against President Museveni’s 57.43% and in Iganga, Besigye polled 36.74%.

From Buikwe, Nandala held a rally in Buvuma, before heading to Iganga, a route that puts him on a journey to reactivate the party that was the breakaway of Besigye, who has founded the People’s Front for Freedom, threatening FDC support.

Nandala has set himself apart on the campaign trail by becoming the first opposition presidential candidate to credit the NRM with some achievements.

At a rally in Iganga, he admitted: “NRM has done some good in 40 years, but the country still faces major challenges.”

In opposition circles, such remarks are almost heresy and risk fuelling claims that he is an NRM proxy. Still, the praise could appeal to sections of the ruling party’s base, if he positions himself as the candidate who will protect existing gains while offering a better alternative.

The other candidates’ campaigns are yet to gain serious traction. They are: Maj. Gen (rtd) Mugisha Muntu from Alliance for National Transformation; Mubarak Munyagwa from the Common Man’s Party; Joseph Mabirizi from the Conservative Party; Robert Kasibante from the National Peasants’ Party; and Frank Bulira Kabinga from the Revolutionary People’s Party.

Besides Muntu and Munyagwa, whose past as FDC members gives them name recognition, the others remain relatively unknown.

Perhaps Mabirizi might be remembered by a few for participating in 2016 and receiving 24,498 votes (0.24%) nationwide.

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