Uganda’s coffee miracle: From modest beginnings to a continental powerhouse

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Uganda’s coffee sector has experienced a remarkable transformation over the past 60 years, growing from a modest average of 2.8 million 60kg bags in the 1960s to over six million bags annually between 2021 and 2024.

A historical assessment of Uganda’s coffee production trends reveals the resilience and evolution of the sector through turbulent political transitions, global price shocks and structural reforms.

In the 1960s, Uganda’s coffee exports averaged 2.8 million bags annually. But the decade that followed—from 1971 to 1979—witnessed a modest decline of 3.5%, coinciding with political instability and economic mismanagement.

The 1980s further deepened the sector’s slump, with average output declining to 2.5 million bags—marking a 7.4% drop from the previous decade.

“That period was characterised by conflict, poor governance, and declining public investment in agriculture,” said Prof. Ezra Suruma, a seasoned economist and former finance minister, during the 2025 Musevenomics Conference held from May 29–30 at Mestil Hotel, Kampala. “It is no surprise that coffee, our leading export, also suffered,” he noted.

Turning Point

However, the 1990s signalled a turning point. With economic liberalisation, improved political stability, and market-oriented reforms, Uganda’s coffee production rose to three million bags—a 20% increase.

This period laid the foundation for modern reforms in agriculture, particularly liberalisation of crop marketing and currency controls.

“When Uganda liberalised coffee marketing and allowed price determination by market forces, farmers became more motivated to invest in quality and quantity,” Suruma said.

Coffee roadmap ushers in a new era

A more dramatic leap started in 2014 when President Yoweri Museveni issued a directive to scale up coffee production to 20 million bags per annum.

A year later, in 2015, the Prime Minister followed up with another directive emphasising co-ordination among stakeholders. These actions culminated in the launch of the Coffee Roadmap in 2017, a blueprint that fundamentally changed the way Uganda approached coffee development.

Between 2010 and 2020, Uganda’s coffee output surged to 3.84 million bags on average—a 37.3% increase from the previous decade.

But the most astonishing growth came post-2020, as production skyrocketed to over 6 million bags annually between 2021 and 2024.

This near-exponential growth is credited to a combination of strategic interventions, including target setting at the highest level, with the President's vision for 20 million bags galvanising stakeholders.

The other strategic interventions were stakeholder consultations (2015–2017), a broad-based consensus building through the “Coffee Lab”, real-time monitoring and pressure for results using tools like the Parish Development Model (PDM) and Operation Wealth Creation (OWC) that ensured accountability and responsiveness.

According to Suruma, seedling financing a public-private partnership to supply millions of high-yielding coffee seedlings to farmers was a game changer.

Additionally, structured demand and global market research is one of the strategies that ensured that expansion was matched by market access and price intelligence.

“The roadmap taught us that structured demand and crop finance are critical. Liberalising the exchange rate and allowing exporters to repatriate proceeds encouraged investment," he added.

More farmers join the coffee economy

The sector’s growth is not just in output but also in inclusiveness. The number of Ugandan households engaged in coffee farming has surged from just 46,000 in 1962 to 1.8 million in 2024—a 200% increase since 1985.

This expansion underscores coffee’s critical role in rural livelihoods and national development. From being a colonial cash crop handled by a few elites, coffee has transformed into a mass livelihood project touching millions.

“Uganda must now ensure value addition to coffee and continue investing in global market intelligence,” Prof. Suruma cautions. He added, “Volume without value will not transform the economy.”

Coffee exports surge past sh727 billion

The coffee export industry continues to break records, with March 2025 seeing a dramatic rise in both volume and revenue, driven by global supply shortages and a spike in international demand.

According to data from the agriculture ministry, Uganda exported a total of 642,981 60kg bags of coffee in March 2025, generating $198.62 million (about shillings 727 billion).

The average price per kg stood at $5.15 (about shillings 18,824), marking a steady rise from $5.03 (about shillings 18,401) in February and a significant leap from $3.27 (about shillings 11,956) in March 2024.

This represented a 92.19% increase in export quantity and a remarkable 202.52% rise in earnings compared to the same month last year.

Farmgate prices for March also remained competitive, with Robusta Kiboko averaging shillings 7,600 per kilo, FAQ Robusta at shillings 15,250, Arabica parchment at shillings 15,000, and Drugar at shillings 14,500.

Steady annual growth

For the year ending March 2025, Uganda exported 6.87 million bags of coffee worth $1.84 billion (about shillings 6.73 trillion).

This was up from 5.99 million bags valued at $999.48 million (about shillings 3.66 trillion) in the previous 12-month period. This translates to a 14.86% growth in quantity and an 84.12% rise in export value.

Notably, 68% of Uganda’s coffee exports were handled by 10 leading exporters among 80 active companies in March, slightly down from 71% in February.

The road ahead

As Uganda nears the President’s ambitious 20 million bag target, policymakers are now turning their attention to climate-smart coffee production, certification and value addition.

While challenges remain, including price volatility, climate threats and financing gaps, Uganda’s coffee transformation remains one of Africa’s most inspiring agricultural stories.

“We have moved from survival to surplus,” Suruma said. “Now we must move from surplus to sophistication.”

General agriculture sector outlook

Generally, Uganda’s agriculture sector, once a dominant force in the country’s economy, has seen a steady decline in its contribution to national output, according to Dr Patrick B. Birungi, the executive director of the Uganda Development Corporation (UDC).

Birungi added that at the time of Uganda’s independence in 1962, agriculture contributed over 50% to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), playing a central role in both production and manufacturing.

“It was not only the backbone of the economy but also a driver of industrialisation,” he said.

However, he expressed concern that the sector’s share of GDP has continued to fall over the years, dropping from 34.1% in the year 2000 to just 24.9% today. Despite this decline in economic output, agriculture still employs the majority of Uganda’s population.

“This mismatch, where agriculture remains employment-heavy but value-light, is a structural challenge we must urgently address,” Dr Birungi explained.

He added that the sector’s low productivity, limited value addition, and inadequate modernisation have prevented it from contributing meaningfully to wealth creation and economic transformation.

He called for renewed investment in agroindustrialisation, improved access to markets, and deliberate policies to transition from subsistence to commercial farming.

“We need to rethink how we position agriculture in our development agenda. It should not just feed our people, but also power our industries, earn foreign exchange, and lift millions out of poverty,” he said.

Key coffee sector figures at a glance

Average Annual Coffee Production (2021–2024): 6.07 million bags

Growth since 2010: +58.9%

Households in Coffee (2024): 1.8 million

Growth since 1985: +200%

Launch of Coffee Roadmap: 2017

Presidential Target: 20 million bags/year