Is Uganda’s goal of reducing emissions by 2030 feasible?
Oct 25, 2023
According to the United Nations, fossil fuels account for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of all carbon dioxide emissions.
Sam Cheptoris, Minister of Water and Environment; Rebecca Kadaga, First Deputy Prime Minister, who is also the Minister for EA Community Affairs and Elsie Attafuah, UNDP resident representative.
Richard Wetaya
Journalist @New Vision
___________________________ Dr Linus Mofor Dr Mouhamadou Sylla Dr Christine Nagawa
In its new climate change plan, Uganda commits to reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions by 24.7% by 2030.
The country accounts for 0.12% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to statistics from Climate Watch and the UN Development Programme.
The 24.7% reduction ostensibly equates to a total reduction of 36.75 metric tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent across several sectors, including energy, which accounts for 10% of Uganda’s greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Petroleum Authority of Uganda.
What they say
“The 10% energy sector emissions from the energy sector, ostensibly the country’s third major source of greenhouse emissions, are low for the time being, but the possibility of higher emissions from it exists, particularly with talk of investments in conventional sources of energy in some parts of the country,” says environmental scientist Dorothy Abalo.
“The consensus in global climate science circles is that conventional energy sources or fossil fuels, such as oil, are the primary cause of global warming and climate change,” says Dr Christine Nagawa, a lecturer at Makerere University’s School of Forestry, Environmental, and Geographical Sciences.
Fossil fuels
According to the United Nations, fossil fuels account for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of all carbon dioxide emissions.
“These high fossil fuel emissions are possibly the reason African leaders demanded a carbon tax on them at the recently concluded Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi,” Abalo adds.
Abalo states that environmental scientists owe it to the country to explain what the usage of fossil fuels will mean for Uganda’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 24.7% by 2030, as well as the country’s climate.
The consumption of fossil fuel-derived energies is still modest in Uganda, at 7%, according to energy ministry statistics, but evidently, the country is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, ranking 14th out of 182 countries and 163rd among ready countries in the 2019 ND-GAIN Index.
The more vulnerable a country is, the lower its NDGAIN Index score, while the more ready it is to improve its resilience, the higher it will be.
The ND-GAIN Index or the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index measures a country’s exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to the negative effects of climate change.
“Uganda’s Vision 2040 provides the framework for a green economy. In the Green Growth Development Strategy 2017/18-2030/31, it is envisaged that implementing a transition to a green growth scenario will result in benefits, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” Nagawa explains.
Solar energy
One of the planned government interventions in the strategy is to support and promote renewable energy investments, including enhancing solar energy potential from the current 10 MW at Soroti’s Solar Power Station to an ambitious 5,000 MW by 2030.
Many experts are upbeat that, with increased investments in off-grid renewable alternatives, 5,000 MW is achievable.
The Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) estimates that as of December 2021, installed electricity capacity in Uganda was 1,346 MW, with demand at 800 MW.
“Apart from limiting human pressure (deforestation and biomass burning) on its land use and forestry sector, as is required under the REDD framework to protect forests as part of the Paris Accords, Uganda will need to show urgency in the global energy transition to renewables by 2050,” Nagawa says.
At the Paris Accords, an international convention on climate change agreed upon in 2016 in the French capital, Paris, Uganda committed, along with 195 other countries, to take measures to limit global temperature rises to 1.5°C.
Uganda has a total renewable energy base of 5,300 MW, according to Vision 2040. The World Bank’s collection of development indicators notes that access to electricity in Uganda was reported to be 45.22% in 2021.
Meanwhile, the transition to low-carbon energy sources is, however, not unique to Uganda. The 2023 World Economic Forum Fostering Effective Energy Transition report highlighted that SubSaharan Africa, a region that contributes the least (less than 4%) to global warming, made one of the most promising advances in the transition to low-carbon energy systems in the last decade.
The region ostensibly experienced an 11% transition increase. Dr Linus Mofor, a senior Environmental Affairs Officer at the UN Economic Commission for Africa’s Africa Climate Policy Centre, told the New Vision that while there is still a lot of work to be done as Africa gradually transitions to sustainable renewable energy sources, there is already an awareness that they will be the best bet in mitigating the worst effects of climate change, such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves, among others.
Africa climate policy centre
In a recent report, the Africa Climate Policy Centre (ACPC), an organisation that influences, strengthens, and enables the transition to climate-resilient development in Africa, indicated that the loss and damage costs in Africa from climate change are expected to vary between $290b (sh1 trillion) and $440b (sh1.6 trillion) between 2020 and 2030, depending on the degree of warming.
“But there are also future health risks associated with climate change that the World Health Organisation has highlighted and that African countries need to be aware of,” says Dr. Mouhamadou Sylla, a climate change specialist at the Kigali-based African Institute for Mathematical Sciences.
Embracing green energy
Several Ugandans, such as Fred Mbaju, 57, a retired teacher and father of three, who lives in Rwangara hamlet in Ntoroko district, have embraced green energy technologies.
Mbaju says he relies on solar and biogas for most of his home’s energy needs. “I prefer the two because they do not pollute the air or heat the environment. They contribute less to climate change and climate shocks, such as the floods, that devastated Ntoroko in 2020,” he explains.
Other voices
According to Anthony Wolimbwa, the national coordinator of Climate Action Network, Uganda, the country will be able to meet the target if the specified policy actions in the new national climate change plans are executed.
“This is, however, on the assumption that all the required resources of $28.1b (sh104 trillion) are mobilised,” Wolimbwa states.
He adds that if this financial backing and the essential technology and capacity are not obtained, the project will be rendered unattainable.
“It all depends on the availability of resources and a strong climate governance regime in the country. These resources are needed by 2030. Meaning, on average, we need about $4.5b annually from now until 2030. About 70% of these resources are expected to be generated from external sources in terms of grants, loans, and carbon trade revenues, including the sale of green bonds.”
The 24.7% target can be met, according to the chairperson of parliament’s committee on climate change, Lawrence Biyika Songa (MP Ora in West Nile), if the country implements all the nature-based solutions outlined in the new climate change plan, such as forest sink conservation, as required under the REDD framework to protect forests, better wetland conservation, and improved industrial processes.
Patience Katusiime, an environmental scientist and programme assistant at the Environment Governance Institute, believes Uganda can meet the target if it embraces renewable energy rather than fossil fuels.
“Uganda requires alternatives to fossil fuels, and the country has abundant renewable energy sources,” she says.
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