East Africa braces for above-normal rains

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Parts of the Horn of Africa could be hit by deadly floods, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has warned, as heavier-than-normal rains are expected to sweep across the region.

The Greater Horn of Africa is forecast to receive above-average rainfall, with high chances of wetter-than-usual conditions across most of the region, particularly in southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia.

ICPAC predicts that several parts of Kenya will experience heavy rainfall exceeding 200mm, while Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania are expected to receive between 50mm and 200mm.

"There is a likelihood of flash flood incidents over parts of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and central to northern Somalia," ICPAC said in its latest forecast.

The Horn of Africa has, for about four decades, experienced declining rainfall trends—especially between March and May, considered the long rainy season—leading to drought and famine, thereby disrupting food security in an already vulnerable region.

During the 2023 short rainy season (October to December), weather stations reported 200–500mm more rainfall than usual, surpassing expectations by over a month before the season’s end.

The region experienced exceptional rainfall, with a maximum 30-day cumulative rainfall from October to November 2023 showing significant accumulation.

Kenya’s national annual average precipitation is typically around 680mm, ranging from less than 250mm in the northern arid and semi-arid land to about 2,000mm in the western region.

Highland areas such as Mt Kenya and the Aberdares receive significant rainfall, with average annual levels ranging from 950mm to 3,000mm.

Uganda’s average annual rainfall is approximately 1,197mm, with significant regional variations. The country’s climate is largely tropical, with two rainy seasons each year: March to May and September to December.

Its highland areas, such as Mt Rwenzori, receive heavy rainfall, sometimes exceeding 1,500mm annually.

Low-lying areas, such as the Rift Valley floor, receive less rainfall, with some regions getting below 875mm per year.

The Great Lakes Region of Africa has, in recent years, experienced devastating floods, affecting several countries, including Uganda, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Burundi.

For instance, in 2023, floods and landslides in north-western Rwanda caused by heavy rains reportedly resulted in at least 130 deaths and displaced over 20,000 people. The floods also reportedly damaged infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and power stations.

Uganda and the DRC were also affected. In the DRC, over 440 people were reportedly killed and 2,500 others were left missing due to floods in the villages of Bushushu and Nyamukubi.

Between April 24 and May 3, 2023, several districts in Uganda—including Kasese, Bududa, Bulambuli, Mbale, Rukungiri, Ntoroko, and Kampala—experienced severe flooding that resulted in deaths and destruction of property.

According to the government, at least six people, including two minors, died in floods due to heavy rainfall in Kampala in 2023.

Government data shows that over 1,000 people were killed in disasters in 2023.

The government, through the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM), had to implement emergency measures and appeal for support from development partners.

The Uganda Red Cross Society activated its Early Action Protocol for Floods, receiving funding to support 2,383 households in flood-prone areas.

According to ICPAC, some countries in the Horn of Africa are also expected to experience temperatures exceeding 32 degrees Celsius, leading to elevated heat stress levels. The “danger” category is expected in parts of western Sudan and the Afar Region in Ethiopia.

The Horn of Africa is among the regions most severely affected by prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, and high temperatures, which have impacted food security, water availability, and livelihoods, according to the United Nations.