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Ugandans show strong commitment to democracy but are increasingly dissatisfied with the way their democracy is working, a survey has indicated.

According to lead researcher of Hatchile Consult Limited an affiliate of Afrobarometer, Francis Kibirige, Uganda ranks high among African countries in commitment to democracy, but a declining share of its citizens think they are getting the democracy they want, according to recent surveys by Afrobarometer.

Kibirige said in Uganda, negative assessments of the delivery of economic and political goods, especially election quality, diminish satisfaction with democracy.

He observed that in most of the 37 countries surveyed in 2021/2022, Ugandans' commitment to democracy (or "demand for democracy") far outstrips the perception of a full "supply of democracy"-a measure of satisfaction that has been on a declining trend since 2015.

With financial support from the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Uganda, the Afrobarometer team in Uganda, the researchers, interviewed 2,400 adult Ugandans between January 7 and 25, 2022.

A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Uganda is one of countries surveyed in 2021/2022 as part of Afrobarometer's round nine surveys.

Kibirige who is a managing director of Hatchile Consult Limited, made remarks during the release of the survey at Hotel Africana on Wednesday.

He pointed out that Ugandans show an interesting demand and supply trajectory, with perceived supply of democracy dropping while demand for democracy follows a cyclical pattern, rising and falling between election years.

“While support for multiparty competition has been increasing in Uganda, so has the view that multiparty competition leads to political violence,” Kibirige told participants which was comprised of development partners, politicians, members of civil society among others.

He explained that the sample size of 2,400 adult citizens for the survey yields a margin of sampling error of +/-2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

He told the audience that the fieldwork for round 9 in Uganda was conducted between 7 and 25 January 2022 in 300 enumeration areas across 119 districts, with an oversample of 13 villages (104 interviews) in each of the 11 new cities.

Like most Africans, Ugandans show strong support for democratic norms such as elections as the best way to choose leaders at 83% and multiparty competition 79%.

“But fewer citizens think their last election was free and fair representing 55%, and three-fourths 74% say that multiparty competition "often" or "always" leads to violent conflict,” Kibirige stated.

Between 2000 and 2005, Uganda looked like a supply-led regime, but since public opinion swung in favour of a return to multiparty elections after 2005, the country has had a more demand-led look, where demand consistently surpasses supply.

The survey shows that 62% of citizens express a commitment to democracy, about the same level as in 2012, but the share of Ugandans who perceive a full supply of democracy has declined to 34%.

It observes that while there is great variation across countries in commitment to democracy, Uganda shows an interesting trajectory, with perceived supply of democracy constantly dropping while commitment to democracy shows a cyclical trend, rising and falling, particularly during general election cycles.

The researchers said Uganda is among a few African countries that have in the last 20 years crossed from a "supply-led" to a characteristic "demand-led" democracy regime.

They said to foster consolidation, Uganda must invest heavily in strategies to entrench democracy, particularly strong citizenry, strong (public) institutions, accountable governance, and efficient service delivery.

The researchers pointed out that demand for and satisfaction with democracy are declining, but the delivery of democratic norms lags far behind demand, especially regarding elections, multiparty competition, term/age limits on the executive, accountable government, presidential accountability to Parliament and the courts, and a free media.

According to Uganda 2022 Afrobarometer data shows that the delivery of economic goods, the freeness and fairness of the last election, and the fear of political intimidation or violence negatively impact demand for democracy.

About democratic norms in Uganda, the survey points out that a majority prefer a president subject to Parliament and the courts, but a growing number feel the president often or always ignores Parliament and the law.

It also indicates that a majority support free media, and a growing number feel the media in Uganda is free to publish without government control.

The researchers pointed out that both demand for and satisfaction with democracy on African continent have declined over the past 10 years. While the supply of democracy has steadily declined in Uganda, support for democracy has been cyclical, often around elections.

On average across 37 countries, the proportion of Africans who are committed to democracy who prefer democracy and reject autocratic alternatives - has dropped by 8 percentage points over the past decade, from 47% in 2011/2013 to 39% in 2021/2022.

“Similarly, the share who perceive a full supply of democracy - who think their country is a democracy and are satisfied with the way their democracy is working- has dropped by 10 percentage points, from 39% to 29%,” the report states.

Reactions/what others say

Winnie Kiiza the former Leader of Opposition in Parliament agreed with researchers findings saying there is need to review the Constitution so as to restore term and age limits to give citizens confidence about democracy.

The term and age limits were scrapped in 2005 and 2017 respectively.

“Let’s demand for accountability, free, fair and transparent elections and not a mere regular election, Kiiza told the audience drawing applause.

The IPOD executive director, Dr. Lawrence Sserwambala (right) and former Member of Parliament Francis Babu, addressing participants during the release of research findings on democracy in Kampala. (Photo by Francis Emorut)

Dr Lawrence Sserwambala, the IPOD executive director said there is need for political leaders to talk to each as the 2026 elections draws near to avert violence.

“In order to mitigate against violence in 2026 elections political leaders need to talk to each other for the Uganda we want,” Sserwambala said.

Francis Babu the former minister of housing pointed out that Ugandan leaders need to borrow a leaf from President Julius Nyerere how he governed Tanzania, emphasizing unity among citizens.

Present at the report release was second secretary political, Simon Harris in the British High Commission.