Ugandan opposition stabs itself

By Deo Tumusiime

The choice of former Prime Minister John Patrick Amama Mbabazi as the flag bearer for The Democratic Alliance (TDA) is quite problematic in many ways. Simply put, the Opposition has stabbed itself not in the foot, but in the forthcoming Presidential elections.

Mbabazi has repeatedly stated that he is not leaving the National Resistance Movement (NRM) which he has served diligently for over two decades. It is, therefore, a huge risk by the opposition to expect an NRM-leaning candidate to effectively represent their agenda, in as much as he may appear to empathise with most of their concerns.

Right from the day Mbabazi was kicked out of his Prime Minister position, I personally did not believe the act being resplendent of enmity between him and the incumbent- I still doubt that his was a fall out. That said, of course Mbabazi, like any other member of the NRM, reserves the privilege to try out his chances of becoming the next President. The question is: Does any NRM insider stand a chance whilst  Museveni is still around? The answer is an outright NO.

In banking on Mbabazi, the opposition could have been excited by his recent show of popularity during his snapshot consultations that appeared to pull crowds. But who is in these crowds? Well, opposition supporters naturally will lean towards anyone against the incumbent Museveni; and ‘like Mbabazi’, there will be some members in the NRM that would like to see change.

When the official election campaign programme gets underway, it will be majorly Mbabazi pitted against his former boss in Museveni. This does not appear in any way to be an organic opposition even if the former may want to bank on the latter’s loopholes known to him. Dare he attempt to fault the incumbent based on ‘spilling secrets’; that alone will finish him off because he will then be viewed as a mere whiner.

Other than that, it will be very risky to try to launch opposition from within, because the Museveni I know knows where to hit his colleague.  Mbabazi will be haunted by so much, noteworthy the fact that Museveni saved his head during the Temangalo land scandal. Herein lies his inferioty in the fray.
 

The opposition had some mileage in the fact that the popularity of the NRM has gone considerably down in recent times. As such, having an organic opposition candidate would have been a good starting point to hope for change. He or she would have been showered with all opposition votes, attempt to infiltrate the NRM votes and possibly stand a chance. But as things appear, the incumbent could never have wished for a better candidate than Mbabazi to stand against him.

So what are the chances of an opposition led by Mbabazi?  Mbabazi will have to completely disassociate himself from the NRM in order to denounce the ideals that the party stands for as he tables a completely alternative agenda. This will require of him to return the party Identity card and get somewhat officially married to the opposition ideals, but this marriage requires quite some gestation period for the man to even learn the language of an opposition candidate.

The neutrals can however prepare themselves for an action packed campaign in the run up to the 2016 elections, but a Mbabazi-Museveni tussle is in many ways victory Museveni. And how I wish the incumbent’s term of office could have been simply extended for another five instead of wasting so much resource on the elections! That said, Kudos to Museveni. This man is one of the smartest I have known, especially his ability to reinvent himself.

The writer is a communications consultant