Will Uganda, Rwanda Fight?

Mar 18, 2003

The current military power-plays now obtaining in the northeastern Congolese region of Ituri seem to be dragging Uganda and Rwanda into a full-fledged international war.

By Vision Reporter
The current military power-plays now obtaining in the northeastern Congolese region of Ituri seem to be dragging Uganda and Rwanda into a full-fledged international war.
Reports that both Uganda and Rwanda are amassing troops on their common borders have made many people think that war is just around the corner.
But analysts and key players in the conflict say that this is unlikely just yet –– as long as each side stops rubbing the other the wrong way.
Rwandan Foreign Minister Dr. Charles Murigande says: “the problem we have are dealings between the Ugandan leadership and the Ex-FAR (former Rwandese soldiers in the previous regime) and the Interahamwe militia in DR Congo. Then there is the recent deployment of Ugandan troops in Congo which we suspect is aimed at linking up with Ex-FAR and Interahamwe to help them destabilise Rwanda,” says Murigande. “We have evidence of their collaboration with the two groups.”
Rwanda also accuses President Museveni of trying to patronise Rwanda and then stirring up trouble whenever he fails.
The state-owned New Times recently called Museveni “...a dangerous paranoid, who, in the guise of trying to avert a catastrophe in the region, embarrassingly assumes the role of an arsonist who calls the fire-fighters before lighting the fires.”
“Are Museveni’s achievements in peace-building coming to nought because he is not allowed to play the role of a patronising patriarch?” the paper asks.
Uganda’s Defence Minister Amama Mbabazi refutes these claims: “Uganda has absolutely no intent of going to war with Rwanda,” says Mbabazi.
“Our being in Ituri is purely for our own security and as per the Lusaka Peace Accord. If you sent journalists to Congo today (yesterday) you will find these 22 chaps captured who belong to the (Col. Kiiza) Besigye group –– Peoples Redemption Army (PRA). Some are ex-soldiers, UPDF deserters organised through Rwanda to go to Ituri and infiltrate Uganda.
“There is a lot of tension on the ground,” said a journalist in Kigali. “When you find five or six people discussing they are talking about the war. In bars and taxis, this is the only debate. People are worried about how we are going to survive if war breaks out.”
The monotony typical of Sundays in Kigali was broken last Sunday when the bigwigs went live on national radio and television to brief the nation on the Uganda-Rwanda stand-off.
The live phone-in programme, the first of its kind in recent Rwandese history and by far the most high profile according to many analysts in Kigali, featured inter alia, Foreign Minister Dr. Charles Murigande and Senior Presidential Advisor on Security, Dr. Emmanuel Ndahiro. Senior Presidential Advisor on Great Lakes, Dr. Charles Mazimpaka and Brig. Gen. Charles Kayonga, the Chief of Staff in charge of Infantry also attended.
For eight hours (10.00am to 5.00pm) they talked about the problems that have existed between the two countries right from 1999 when they first clashed in Kisangani to present day and then tried to explain the circumstances that have led to the current conflict.
Among other things, Murigande said that Uganda’s Defence Minister Amama Mbabazi travelled to the US recently to convince the White House not to allow President Kagame and his delegation to go there.
President Kagame returned a week ago from the US where he met US President George Bush and other key officials like Security Advisor Condolezza Rice and Secretary of State Collin Powell.
On the allegations made on Rwandan radio and television, Mbabazi said: “If you have leaders who choose to tell lies and fabricate stories, it is up to them. I have not been to the US since last May when I went with President Museveni. If we don’t stop President kagame from visiting Uganda why should we stop him from visiting any other place?
But Dr. Murigande stands firm: “He (Mbabazi) should show you his passport.”
The fact that the Kigali leadership was for the first time briefing ordinary Rwandans about the Congo clashes did raise fears in diplomatic circles that it was a move to rally national support for possible war with Uganda.
A diplomat in Kigali says the fact that the international community is focussed on a possible US-Iraq war, means there may be no one left to restrain Uganda and Rwanda.
But many analysts say two major factors rule out possibility of clashes:
l President Paul Kagame is organising Presidential and Parliamentary Elections mid this year. President Kagame, who will be seeking to legitimatise his leadership through the vote, is very keen on these elections. He would not allow a silly war with a neighbouring country to divert himself from the goal of being the elected president of the Republic of Rwanda.
l The two governments would find it difficult to rally their nations behind them for such a war. While relations among the top brass on either side are freezing, it is business as usual between the citizens. Sources in Rwanda point out that as a landlocked country, Rwanda uses Mombasa port for import and export purposes, through Uganda.
Other family and business ties are very strong. It is therefore most unlikely that there would be a full-fledged war between Uganda and Rwanda. The main problem however still remains the use of proxy groups.
“What I can tell you is that we can never have a war along the common border,” says another source in Kigali. “But we can have a war in Congo like we had in Kisangani. There could be a big temptation to do that since international attention is diverted to Iraq. Besides, that is away from home - there is too much to lose by fighting across the borders.”
War or no war will depend “on how we decide to conduct the business,” says UPDF Spokesman Maj. Shaban Bantariza. “They gave us an ultimatum, remember? Suppose they go ahead and make good on their promise. Would you expect UPDF to take flight?”
“Our position here is that it all depends on what the Ugandan leadership will do,” says Dr. Murigande. “If they want peace, you (Uganda) will get it in abundance. If you want war, we shall be obliged to fight it.”
“There has been a lot of diplomatic efforts going on. I have been trying to call Hon. James Wapakhabulo (Uganda’s Foreign Minister) to no avail (his phone is not available), to see if we can organise a meeting to discuss a way out.
This is not a new conflict; rather a continuation of what started in 1999 and evidence that the issues that caused the crisis then have never been fully resolved. It is a suggestion that the statements proclaiming restoration of normalcy were suspect in authenticity and that the efforts to make things right seem to have been masking the problems rather than neutralising them.
The most sustainable way to achieve a sustainable and peaceful resolution of the Itur, capable of maintaining security in all the parts of the DR Congo.
That will rid both Uganda and Rwanda of reason (or excuse) to be in Congo. Until that is done, chances of skirmishes remain high. Ends

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