Conflicts have delayed Uganda’s development
Mar 03, 2008
Critics of the National Resistance Movement have argued that development cannot take place in countries which are undemocratic or corruption-prone. But the absence of democracy did not stop Singapore, China or South Korea and many other countries from developing. Similarly, corruption did not stop
BY TEDDY CHEEYE
Critics of the National Resistance Movement have argued that development cannot take place in countries which are undemocratic or corruption-prone. But the absence of democracy did not stop Singapore, China or South Korea and many other countries from developing. Similarly, corruption did not stop China, India, Chile, Mexico, Brazil and many other countries from development.
Others say that NRM’s claim of having brought peace is exaggerated, and that the repetitions are sickening because Ugandans cannot eat peace. Peace is paramount and a pre-requisite before any country can embark on the road to economic development. The question is: How long does it take to develop?
Peace is a pre-requisite for
development
At independence, Uganda was close to Kenya in economic development and relatively ahead of Kenya in other areas like education, health, agriculture and tourism. Uganda was at par with Tanzania in many areas and ahead in others. But today Uganda’s economy is only 10% of Kenya’s economy and trails that of Tanzania. What happened? The answer is to be found in instability.
Tanzania’s first president, Julius Nyerere, ruled for 24 years (1961-1985) followed by peaceful changes of two successive governments, each lasting 10 years (Ali Hassan Mwinyi and Benjamin Mkapa) bringing a total of 44 years of peaceful governance.
Kenya’s founding father Jomo Kenyatta ruled for 15 years (1963-1978), followed by Daniel arap Moi, who ruled for 24 years (1978-2002) and Mwai Kibaki whose first term from 2002 to 2007 was peaceful.
Like Tanzania, Kenya had 44 years of consolidating economic development.
In Uganda, the first 24 years after independence (1962-1986) witnessed five violent changes of government in which lives and property were destroyed. In those 24 years, there were eight presidents, which means an average of three years of tenure. The high level of insecurity in Uganda undermined socio-economic development compared to Kenya and Tanzania, which enjoyed years of uninterrupted peace.
How long does it take a country to take off?
A reader wondered whether we need 1870 years which Britain took to achieve industrial revolution. A country must first get out of the conflict trap before it can develop. In the case of Britain, 1600 years out of 1870 were characterised by war. After getting out of the conflict trap, a country needs years of rehabilitation before it can consider itself developed.
In the case of Britain, this was after the 100 years of war (1688-1788). It took 82 years to achieve industrial revolution (1870). It then took 58 years to take off (doubled income). In the case of the US, after shaping up in 1939, it took 47 years to consider itself developed (doubled income). In the case of Japan, after 1885, the year taken for state consolidation, it took 34
years before it could be considered to be on the path to
development (doubled income).
In the case of Europe, after getting out of the conflict trap in 1945 (end of World War II), it took 27 years (1946-1973) of reconstruction to take off. In China, after defeating internal separatists and achieving a unified country (1945) it took 49 years to get their economic fundamentals right. The same applies to South Korea which got out of colonial and other forms of conflict trap when Gen. Park Chung-hee took over in 1961 and introduced sound economic development programmes. It took Gen. Park 18 years (1961-1979) to put South Korea in the club of developed countries.
Why has it taken Uganda 20 years
to prepare for take off?
The main driving force behind development is the invisible market forces of demand and supply. However, versatile economists (like President Yoweri Museveni) go further to note that the main driving force of entrepreneurs is greed. In extreme cases, this greed is facilitated by use of violence, especially state-inspired violence, because politics is nothing but appropriation of public economic powers. This calls for superior leadership skills to regulate and impose law and order. This is where President Museveni’s discovery of the law linking security to politics and economics comes in handy in the struggle for economic emancipation of Ugandans.
It took Museveni 14 years (1972-1986) to get Ugandans out of the trap of successive murderous regimes. It took him another 20 years (1986-2006) to get Ugandans out of internal banditry trap. Once a country has moved out of the conflict trap, like Uganda has, the rest is a matter of details. Conflict is the reason it has taken Uganda under President Museveni long to prepare for economic take off. What is going to follow is obvious.
The writer is Director of Economic Affairs and Monitoring,
Office of the President
Critics of the National Resistance Movement have argued that development cannot take place in countries which are undemocratic or corruption-prone. But the absence of democracy did not stop Singapore, China or South Korea and many other countries from developing. Similarly, corruption did not stop China, India, Chile, Mexico, Brazil and many other countries from development.
Others say that NRM’s claim of having brought peace is exaggerated, and that the repetitions are sickening because Ugandans cannot eat peace. Peace is paramount and a pre-requisite before any country can embark on the road to economic development. The question is: How long does it take to develop?
Peace is a pre-requisite for
development
At independence, Uganda was close to Kenya in economic development and relatively ahead of Kenya in other areas like education, health, agriculture and tourism. Uganda was at par with Tanzania in many areas and ahead in others. But today Uganda’s economy is only 10% of Kenya’s economy and trails that of Tanzania. What happened? The answer is to be found in instability.
Tanzania’s first president, Julius Nyerere, ruled for 24 years (1961-1985) followed by peaceful changes of two successive governments, each lasting 10 years (Ali Hassan Mwinyi and Benjamin Mkapa) bringing a total of 44 years of peaceful governance.
Kenya’s founding father Jomo Kenyatta ruled for 15 years (1963-1978), followed by Daniel arap Moi, who ruled for 24 years (1978-2002) and Mwai Kibaki whose first term from 2002 to 2007 was peaceful.
Like Tanzania, Kenya had 44 years of consolidating economic development.
In Uganda, the first 24 years after independence (1962-1986) witnessed five violent changes of government in which lives and property were destroyed. In those 24 years, there were eight presidents, which means an average of three years of tenure. The high level of insecurity in Uganda undermined socio-economic development compared to Kenya and Tanzania, which enjoyed years of uninterrupted peace.
How long does it take a country to take off?
A reader wondered whether we need 1870 years which Britain took to achieve industrial revolution. A country must first get out of the conflict trap before it can develop. In the case of Britain, 1600 years out of 1870 were characterised by war. After getting out of the conflict trap, a country needs years of rehabilitation before it can consider itself developed.
In the case of Britain, this was after the 100 years of war (1688-1788). It took 82 years to achieve industrial revolution (1870). It then took 58 years to take off (doubled income). In the case of the US, after shaping up in 1939, it took 47 years to consider itself developed (doubled income). In the case of Japan, after 1885, the year taken for state consolidation, it took 34
years before it could be considered to be on the path to
development (doubled income).
In the case of Europe, after getting out of the conflict trap in 1945 (end of World War II), it took 27 years (1946-1973) of reconstruction to take off. In China, after defeating internal separatists and achieving a unified country (1945) it took 49 years to get their economic fundamentals right. The same applies to South Korea which got out of colonial and other forms of conflict trap when Gen. Park Chung-hee took over in 1961 and introduced sound economic development programmes. It took Gen. Park 18 years (1961-1979) to put South Korea in the club of developed countries.
Why has it taken Uganda 20 years
to prepare for take off?
The main driving force behind development is the invisible market forces of demand and supply. However, versatile economists (like President Yoweri Museveni) go further to note that the main driving force of entrepreneurs is greed. In extreme cases, this greed is facilitated by use of violence, especially state-inspired violence, because politics is nothing but appropriation of public economic powers. This calls for superior leadership skills to regulate and impose law and order. This is where President Museveni’s discovery of the law linking security to politics and economics comes in handy in the struggle for economic emancipation of Ugandans.
It took Museveni 14 years (1972-1986) to get Ugandans out of the trap of successive murderous regimes. It took him another 20 years (1986-2006) to get Ugandans out of internal banditry trap. Once a country has moved out of the conflict trap, like Uganda has, the rest is a matter of details. Conflict is the reason it has taken Uganda under President Museveni long to prepare for economic take off. What is going to follow is obvious.
The writer is Director of Economic Affairs and Monitoring,
Office of the President