Come 2006, who will you vote?
Mar 23, 2004
YOUR PLATFORM<br><br>Times of critical political decisions present themselves only after a long while. In Uganda, other than 1961 when Buganda had to the take the decision of allying with UPC and 1978 when being with the wrong group at Moshi Conference proved suicidal two years later, the year to
YOUR PLATFORM
Times of critical political decisions present themselves only after a long while. In Uganda, other than 1961 when Buganda had to the take the decision of allying with UPC and 1978 when being with the wrong group at Moshi Conference proved suicidal two years later, the year to take decisions that makes or breaks is 2004.
This is the time when Ugandans in key leadership positions will take either rewarding or costly decisions. Decisions that will determine their destiny, that of their constituents, organisation and family for the next 20 plus years.
This article is meant to shed some light on the question of the day-the third term, unmask the forces that are shaping political events and the different options and their implications.
The president of Uganda after 2006 will still hail from the west.
Anyone with contrary ambitions had better settle for this. The duel will be fought in the west, not anywhere else in Uganda. The fortune of the other Ugandans largely depends on which western giant they vote for and whether that giant emerges winner.
Uganda’s leadership succession pattern has been that successors come from the same region for two or three consecutive times. Milton Obote was succeeded by Amin. Obote II succeeded Amin and Tito Okello succeeded Obote, before the regional power shifted to the west, under Yoweri Museveni.
Note, 25 years elapsed before this regional power shift.
The difference between Eriya Kategaya, a key figure in the success of the NRM revolution and President Yoweri Museveni is about strategy.
Both want to preserve the gains of the NRM revolution, but each has a different strategy. Kategaya believes that Museveni’s personal control will spoil the transformation of the revolution into a more durable form which lives the western ruling elite still in control. Museveni’s unstated view seems to be contrary to this.
I have postulated elsewhere that African presidents want to stay long in office not because they are hungry for power. It arises out of a concern to provide a constancy which is the foundation of stability.
Since institutions of government in most African countries are too feeble to provide a constancy, African heads of states try to provide it themselves and earn for themselves the undeserved title; dictator. It is the concern to provide a constancy which could compel Museveni to run for presidency in 2006.
There are convincing indicators that Museveni could still receive over 50% of the support of Ugandans if he ran for president again. But, the obstacle to this is the constitution which limits presidential terms to two.
By putting all their energies to stop the impending referendum and constitution amendment to remove the term limit, the opposition including the Parliamentary Advocacy Forum (PAFO) are aiming their guns at a defective target.
The prize in the next election is in alliances and how cleverly they are woven, to ensure enough percentage poll win to form a government.
The opposition should in addition to supporting the lifting of term limits push for raising of the percentage vote win requirement necessary to form a government to 60%.
This is will make it impossible to govern Uganda without a coalition hence creating a true broad-based government, which was in the original 10 point programme of the NRM.
Although Buganda Government’s request for federo presents a cryptic case for Museveni to handle, as it cannot be granted without antagonising his other equally important allies, Museveni is well ahead of competitors in alliance building.
Even if PAFO were to divide the western vote with Museveni and combine votes from traditional anti-movement areas in the north and east, this may not be enough to beat Museveni’s votes in western, central, west Nile and some parts of north and north east and east, unless a previously unforeseen factor comes into play.
Alliance building will feature prominently in the coming months with surprise appointments to high positions in government in the months ahead.
So when you are courted, where will you cast your lot?
Joe Nam
Kampala
Times of critical political decisions present themselves only after a long while. In Uganda, other than 1961 when Buganda had to the take the decision of allying with UPC and 1978 when being with the wrong group at Moshi Conference proved suicidal two years later, the year to take decisions that makes or breaks is 2004.
This is the time when Ugandans in key leadership positions will take either rewarding or costly decisions. Decisions that will determine their destiny, that of their constituents, organisation and family for the next 20 plus years.
This article is meant to shed some light on the question of the day-the third term, unmask the forces that are shaping political events and the different options and their implications.
The president of Uganda after 2006 will still hail from the west.
Anyone with contrary ambitions had better settle for this. The duel will be fought in the west, not anywhere else in Uganda. The fortune of the other Ugandans largely depends on which western giant they vote for and whether that giant emerges winner.
Uganda’s leadership succession pattern has been that successors come from the same region for two or three consecutive times. Milton Obote was succeeded by Amin. Obote II succeeded Amin and Tito Okello succeeded Obote, before the regional power shifted to the west, under Yoweri Museveni.
Note, 25 years elapsed before this regional power shift.
The difference between Eriya Kategaya, a key figure in the success of the NRM revolution and President Yoweri Museveni is about strategy.
Both want to preserve the gains of the NRM revolution, but each has a different strategy. Kategaya believes that Museveni’s personal control will spoil the transformation of the revolution into a more durable form which lives the western ruling elite still in control. Museveni’s unstated view seems to be contrary to this.
I have postulated elsewhere that African presidents want to stay long in office not because they are hungry for power. It arises out of a concern to provide a constancy which is the foundation of stability.
Since institutions of government in most African countries are too feeble to provide a constancy, African heads of states try to provide it themselves and earn for themselves the undeserved title; dictator. It is the concern to provide a constancy which could compel Museveni to run for presidency in 2006.
There are convincing indicators that Museveni could still receive over 50% of the support of Ugandans if he ran for president again. But, the obstacle to this is the constitution which limits presidential terms to two.
By putting all their energies to stop the impending referendum and constitution amendment to remove the term limit, the opposition including the Parliamentary Advocacy Forum (PAFO) are aiming their guns at a defective target.
The prize in the next election is in alliances and how cleverly they are woven, to ensure enough percentage poll win to form a government.
The opposition should in addition to supporting the lifting of term limits push for raising of the percentage vote win requirement necessary to form a government to 60%.
This is will make it impossible to govern Uganda without a coalition hence creating a true broad-based government, which was in the original 10 point programme of the NRM.
Although Buganda Government’s request for federo presents a cryptic case for Museveni to handle, as it cannot be granted without antagonising his other equally important allies, Museveni is well ahead of competitors in alliance building.
Even if PAFO were to divide the western vote with Museveni and combine votes from traditional anti-movement areas in the north and east, this may not be enough to beat Museveni’s votes in western, central, west Nile and some parts of north and north east and east, unless a previously unforeseen factor comes into play.
Alliance building will feature prominently in the coming months with surprise appointments to high positions in government in the months ahead.
So when you are courted, where will you cast your lot?
Joe Nam
Kampala