Setting the stage for 2016

By David Mukholi

This month will see a rise in political activities as political parties prepare for primaries in the run-up to the 2016 generals elections.

Two contenders for Democratic Party, (DP) Norbert Mao and Dr. Michael Bayiga are the only ones who have so far picked nominations forms to contest for party presidency. The winner will also be the presidential candidate. In Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Dr. Kizza Besigye and Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu have been nominated.

 In early September, the party will choose one to be the presidential flag-bearer in next year’s national polls. But there are fears that the contest could further tear apart the party. Since Muntu was elected party president in 2012, FDC has been divided into two camps. One is his, and the other backing Nandala Mafabi who lost the election.

Last week the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) approved James Akena unopposed as party president and in effect the presidential candidate. But a section of the party has disputed the endorsement claiming it was done by a ‘rented delegates’ conference.’

For now, Akena joins Prof. Venansius Baryamureeba who declared his intention to run for president last month claiming he had been nominated by progressive Ugandans.

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) is also busy laying ground for party primaries and eventually the National Conference slated for September to elect the chairman and presidential candidate.

Unlike other parties, the NRM uses universal suffrage to elect parliamentary and local government candidates. With its massive support the winners stand a great chance of winning in the national elections. This explains why the NRM primaries are hotly contested.

The NRM’s presidential candidate is elected by an electoral college constituted by the National Conference. Most party supporters and the officials are rooting for President Yoweri Museveni but he has not declared his intentions. Some even want him to be the sole candidate.

It is still early to tell what will happen. But the former Prime Minister, Amama Mbabazi, has declared his intention to run for party chairmanship. Last December the National Conference endorsed the party constitutional amendment, which resulted in him losing the position of secretary general when it was turned into a full-time job filled by an appointed official.

Therefore it is unlikely that he will marshal significant support from the conference when it convenes to elect the chairman and presidential flag bearer.

The conference also passed other proposals, which included making the positions of deputy secretary general, treasurer and deputy treasurer appointed on full-time basis. Earlier, Mbabazi had brushed aside suggestions that he resigns to allow the party get a full-time secretary general given that he was also holding the position of Prime Minister, which did not spare him time for party work. He declined on grounds that he was elected and can only be removed by the Electoral College.

During the December National Conference like in any such meeting, two sides were expected. One, in support of the amendments and the other opposed to them. But following the deliberations it was clear the conference unanimously endorsed the changes meaning those in support carried the day. Because he was holding the position, Mbabazi could have preferred the status quo, after all who wouldn’t want to be secretary general of a mass party?

The National Conference opted for appointed officials and consequently he lost the position of secretary general. If he holds onto his intention to contest for party chairmanship he will have to face all the NRM organs – Central Executive Committee, National Executive Committee and eventually that National Conference. All of them backed the constitutional changes and have also raised concerns about his early politicking. They argue he is contravening party rules by declaring his intentions and announcing that he is going to carry out consultations before the right time. But he thinks differently.

Although the NRM has objected to his bid, the opposition has welcomed it. This places him between the two sides (the ruling and opposition parties) and he is playing them into a tug of war to win him over.

He insists he is still an NRM member and founder but also talks like a new member of the opposition. Some of his comments endear him to the opposition, which now wants him on their side. It is reported he has had meetings with opposition leaders but he has not publicly said he is joining them.

Nevertheless there are signs that he could consider it, given that he was represented at the birth of the Democratic Alliance (TDA), coalition of main opposition political parties to be sole presidential candidate.

Some opposition leaders think he stands a chance of being the candidate if he joined. But if he opts for the opposition he presents a moral dilemma for it and himself.

In his heyday Mbabazi was the target of the opposition, which wanted him to resign or be sacked. Even when he was cleared of the Temagalo land deal, allegations of receiving a bribe from an oil company and involvement in the Office of the Prime Minister financial scandal they insisted he was not clean.

So to work with him, the opposition would have to tell the country whether they were lying or not. On his part, Mbabazi will also have to explain whether he was lying when he showered praises on Museveni.

Twitter:dmukholi1
Email:dmukholi@newvision.co.ug