Secondary enrolment to drop - World Bank

Jan 19, 2010

IN spite of the sky-rocketing enrolment in primary schools, the transition rate to secondary school is predicted to fall. <br>The decline is rooted in the poor performance of pupils at P7 and the increasing number of drop outs. Could the large numbers under free education be gradually affecting qua

By Conan Businge

IN spite of the sky-rocketing enrolment in primary schools, the transition rate to secondary school is predicted to fall.
The decline is rooted in the poor performance of pupils at P7 and the increasing number of drop outs. Could the large numbers under free education be gradually affecting quality education?

The World Bank’s estimates of the current primary school enrolment, repetition and drop out rates are high. In 2005, there were about 650,000 PLE graduates while 2009 had 825,000. Today, the completion rate at P7 is already going down, according to government figures.

In 2002, about 102,000 pupils who completed PLE were selected for entry to S1 in government schools. Another 131,000 joined private schools, reaching an overall transition rate of about 50%. Government figures indicating the transition from P7 to S1 are optimistic, but the World Bank report shows that they are likely to go down.

This report contends that places in government schools will grow at a rate determined by the size of the public budget and the public unit costs of provision. An initial rate of growth in both private and public secondary schools is estimated to fall to 5% after five years. Higher rates of growth are unlikely to be sustained as costs are high in relation to household incomes. There are already signs that there is growth.

The report also says high school fees limit the would-be growing number of pupils that would join S1. Government schools could see their enrolments increase from about 375,000 to over 600,000 and private schools might grow from 420,000 to over 900,000 over the projection period. Total secondary enrolment will reach about 1.5 million. Technical/farm schools and technical institutes would enroll less than 20,000 by 2012.

About 3,400 candidates applied for technical/farm schools in 2002 and less than 2,000 were accepted based on the lowest grades they attained after sitting PLE. This is less than 1% of P.7 enrolment. Enrolment patterns in secondary schooling are assumed to remain static in terms of repetition and drop out.

Therefore, the transition rates from P7 to S1 will initially decline in relation to decline in growth of S1 enrolment to the growth of P.7 graduates. However, the transition rate will then recover to about 50 percent over a ten-year projection period.

Studies show that there has been a significant decline in performance at P7 since 2005. The transition rate is being affected by quality and a high drop out. Out of the pupils that joined primary in the early 2000s, only 49% completed P7. Thousands of the others dropped out. On average at primary school level, 50% of pupils who enroll in P1 do not complete P7 in the set time-frame. Records show that out of a total of 890,997 enrolled in 2009, only 444,019 pupils the examination.

This means that 446,978 pupils have either repeated classes or have dropped out of school. While only 49% of pupils in Uganda reached primary five in 2004, in Kenya it was 83%, in Tanzania 84% and in Burundi 67%, according to the 2007 Human Development report.

An efficiency study, carried out in 2007 by the World Bank on behalf of the education ministry, found that billions of shillings were wasted as a result of the high dropout.

In a 2007 survey by the Uganda Child Rights NGO Network, majority of school drop outs are due to the high school fees and lack of scholastic materials. Another survey, The status of fulfillment of Child Rights in Uganda also shows that 40% of dropouts are due to high costs in schools. Other reasons include poor academic progress, demands to work for their homes, sickness and calamity.

If nothing is done to overturn the loopholes in the implementation of primary education, it is becoming clearer that the country might lose the goals attained.

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