52% SUPPORT 2-TERM LIMIT

A MAJORITY of Ugandans interviewed in urban centres support the proposed lifting of the ban on political party activities, but do not want the presidential two-term limit removed.
Charles Wendo writes that a survey carried out in six urban centres between April 5 and 7 indicates that most respondents also said they do not want President Yoweri Museveni to stand for a third term.
The New Vision commissioned the survey after the Movement’s decision-making body, the National Executive Committee, recommended that political parties should be set free and that the two-term limit for presidents be lifted. The research team interviewed 1,008 adults, 49% of whom were women while 51% were male.
Asked the question, “should the ban on political party activities be lifted?” 49% said yes while 40% said no. However, 11% indicated they were not sure.
The proposal to lift the ban on political parties received most support in Lira, where 64% of the respondents answered in the affirmative.
This was followed by Jinja with 60%, Kampala 57%, Masaka 51%, Mbarara 31% and Mbale 24%. While in most districts the respondents wanted the ban on parties lifted, in Mbale and Mbarara the majority thought the restrictions should be maintained.
On the question, “should the presidential two-term limit be lifted?”, 34% of all respondents said yes, 52% said no while 14% were not sure.
Contrary to what most people expect, Kampala had the lowest opposition to a possible lifting of the two-term limit.
The number of people opposed to lifting the two-term limit appears to be highest in Lira, where 67% of the respondents answered ‘no.’
This was followed by Jinja with 58%, Mbale 49%, Mbarara and Masaka 48% and Kampala 46%.
The third question was, “should President Yoweri Museveni get a third term?”
To this, 38% answered yes, 56% said no, while 6% were not sure.
Compared to an opinion poll conducted shortly before the last presidential elections, it appears a significant number of people who chose Museveni in 2001 may not give him their vote if he stood again.
In the pre-election opinion poll, 54% of the urban respondents supported Museveni.
In the new opinion poll, Kampala and Jinja were the only urban centres where a majority of the respondents said Museveni should get a third term.
Support for a third term was 15% in Lira, 16% in Mbale, 34% in Mbarara, 48% in Masaka, 53% in Kampala and 57% in Jinja.
Seventy-seven per cent of the respondents in Lira and 74% in Mbale said Museveni should not get a third term.
Of those who want the two-term limit lifted, 58.1% supported the proposal to lift the ban on political parties. It appears they want Museveni to compete under the multi-party system.
It is not clear why 26.4% of those opposed to a lifting of the two-term limit, said they support a third term for Museveni.
On all three key questions, the survey team found a high number of people who were not sure about the appropriate answer.
One may assume they were not decided, or did not understand the issues.
Since the survey was entirely .urban-based, it excludes the opinions of the majority of the rural population.
In predominantly urban opinion polls, towards the last presidential elections, about 54% of the respondents said they would vote Museveni.
However, Museveni won the elections with a 69% majority.
The rural areas, where Museveni has always been more popular than in urban areas, possibly account for the difference.
It is not clear how far this rural factor would have affected the results of this opinion poll. Ends