Who Is Rwanda’s Next President?

Aug 05, 2003

On August 25, 2003, Rwandans of 18 years and above will vote in the country’s first presidential elections since the end of the genocide (1994). Six people had expressed interest to stand for presidency. <br>However, two aspirants were disqualified for failure to get the mandatory 600 signatures

Paul Kagame
THE Maj. Gen. was born in October 1957 to Deogratius and Asteria Rutagambwa in Gitarama prefecture, central Rwanda. Kagame comes from the Abega clan, a prominent clan known for its traditional rivalry with the royal clan.
During the 1959 ethnic violence that caused the exodus of many Tutsi into exile, the Rutagambwa family is said to have fled to Uganda where they lived as refugees. Kagame’s family lived in Kahunge Refugee Camp in present-day Kamwenge district.
After the death of Maj. Gen. Fred Rwigyema, RPF’s charismatic leader in October 1990, Kagame was compelled to leave his military training in the US in order to lead the fledgling Rwanda Patriotic Army (RPA) that later took over power in 1994. He has since dominated the political life of Rwanda.
Although he is still a commissioned officer of the Rwandan army, he has not appeared in military uniform since he became president. Kagame does not like to be addressed as a Major General, the rank he holds in the Rwanda Defence Forces. However, the fact that he is still a soldier is not lost on Rwandans.
Strong points. Kagame’s biggest rallying point for votes lies in the achievements of the post-genocide transitional government that he leads. Plus the advantages of incumbency and a loyal military establishment, it is not farfetched to opine that Kagame is destined to win the elections. Another vote-pulling point for Kagame is that people do not have much confidence in the three other candidates to hold the country together. It can therefore be said that some people will vote Kagame for fear of the unknown. Kagame is expected to win in the Prefectures of Kigali City, Kigali Rural, Kibuye, Umutara, Kibungo and Gitarama.
Kagame will win in Kibuye Prefecture (borders DR Congo) because it is the only prefecture with more Tutsis than Hutus (at least before the genocide). It was the only prefecture not connected to the national road network, a disparity Kagame’s government sorted out with a superb tarmac road. Another factor to help him win in Kibuye is that there is no serious opposition leader from the area. Sebarenzi Kabuye, the only serious opposition leader from Kibuye prefecture, is now exiled in Canada. Sebarenzi is former speaker of the transitional parliament.
Kagame also has high chances of winning in the prefectures of Kibungo, Umutara, Kigali City, Kigali Rural and Gitarama because they form a belt of prefectures associated with the prosperity of post-genocide Rwanda.
Weak points. Kagame lacks on rhetoric oratory. He lacks the ability to work up the audience. However, in spite of that weakness, he is very confident in words and deeds. “It is this confidence that people mistake for arrogance,” said one of his aides in Kigali. Recently, Umuseso newspaper reported that some people have said that they will vote for him because they fear he might resort to war if he loses the elections.
Although his aides say it is a small matter, it is worth mentioning that Kagame is the only Tutsi candidate in the race. He is also the only returnee (former refugee of the 1959 ethnic violence) candidate.

Faustin Twagiramungu
He was born in 1945 in the western prefecture of Cyangugu that borders the DR Congo. He is a graduate of Economics from a Canadian university. He is fluent in Kinyarwanda, French, English and Kiswahili. He is popularly called Rukokoma by his fans, a nickname he picked during the days of his political activism against the excesses of the Habyarimana regime. He is a proud Hutu.
Twagiramungu was the first post-genocide prime minister of Rwanda. He later resigned from his post, citing human rights violations committed by the military. He has the ability to hold his audience spell-bound with the power of speech, but he sometimes criticises government leaders unreasonably; even using abusive language.
Strong points. Twagiramungu was the embodiment of civil opposition during the RPF rebellion. The late Agatha Uwilingiy’Imana (Habyarimana’s last Premier) and Twagiramungu’s political activism kept the fire of civil politics burning as the belligerent RPA and the government (Rwanda Armed Forces) tussled it out on the frontline.
Another positive on his side is that he has a clean political background. His early resignation (in 1995) cast him as a politically principled man. He has chances to win in the prefectures of Cyangugu, Gikongoro, Ruhengeri, Gisenyi, Byumba and Kigali Rural. These prefectures are predominantly Hutu and are densely populated.
Weak points. The period he spent in exile will definitely work against him. The banning of MDR political party, whose structures he would have exploited, will also weaken his chances of being the next president of the republic.
Another negative score is the fear that ‘some people’ might ‘implicate’ him in genocide crimes, a common trick used by the establishment to silence opposition politicians.


Dr. Alivera Mukabaramba
She is a Hutu. Until recently she was a member of the transitional parliament representing the now banned Republican Democratic Movement. (MDR). She was the chairperson of the parliamentary committee on social welfare.
Alivera was born in 1960 in Gasabo village of Commune Gikoro in Kigali-Ngali (Kigali Rural) Prefecture. (Gasabo is said to be the cradle of the nation-state of the old Rwandan monarchy). She is a graduate of Paediatrics from a Russian university. She is married.
After the recent banning of the MDR, Alivera and a group of former MDR members formed the Party for Progress and Concordance (PPC) which is now sponsoring her candidature.
Strong points. Since she is the first Rwandan woman to take a shot at the highest office in the land, she will most likely call on the womenfolk to vote for her into office. She has better chances in the prefectures of Byumba, Kigali Rural and Kigali City. She has chances of winning in Byumba because it is her husband’s homeland. The prefectures of Kigali City and Kigali Rural are expected to have more liberal voters.
Weak points. African politics is a male thing. And given that she joined national politics rather late (1999), it will be an uphill task for her to win this election and become Rwanda’s next president. Also against her are rumours that her candidature is under the sponsorship of Kagame’s RPF which would benefit from a divided Hutu vote.

Jean Napomoscene Nayinzira
He is a Hutu, born in 1943 in Gisenyi Prefecture of Northern Rwanda. Although he is said to have started political activism at 20 years, Napomoscene first came to national prominence when he founded the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) in 1991. This was during the faint democratisation process in which the late Juvenal Habyarimana’s government allowed the operation of political parties mainly due to pressure from the rebel Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF). He is standing as an independent individual.
Nayinzira was appointed minister of tourism and environment in the first post-genocide government. He was later transferred to the ministry of labour and public service from where he was sent to chair the Unity and Reconciliation Commission.
From the reconciliation commission, he represented PDC in Rwanda’s parliament. He was later expelled from the party he founded and said he would quit politics.
Strong points. According to an analysis carried in Umuseso, a local Kinyarwanda newspaper, Nayinzira’s chances of becoming Rwanda’s next president are very slim. However, he has some strong points on his side. Being a Roman Catholic Church activist and founder of a political party that upholds Christian democratic values, there is a prospect that he might get a sympathetic vote from a big section of Catholics. Rwanda is predominantly a Roman Catholic country. His long service in the public domain is also another strong point. He has better chances of winning in the Prefecture of Gisenyi because it is his birthplace.
Weak points. He has been accused of being promiscuous and abandoning children. His expulsion from PDC, which would have sponsored his candidature, will also affect his chances of winning the elections. Nayinzira is also the least educated of the four candidates.
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