What The People Have To Say About Lifting The Two-Term Limit
Sep 09, 2003
Barely two weeks after the Cabinet recommended lifting of the two-term presidential limit and a return to federalism, it appears the voters in Kampala are disagreeing.
By Charles Wendo
Barely two weeks after the Cabinet recommended lifting of the two-term presidential limit and a return to federalism, it appears the voters in Kampala are disagreeing.
An opinion poll commissioned by The New Vision has revealed that the majority of men and women in the city are opposed to lifting the two-term limit, they do not want Museveni to stand again for re-election, but agree to a possible return to federo.
Deeper analysis indicates that women are more inclined to support the third term project. It also appears to indicate that Kampala voters would rather consider the two-term issue separate from the third term.
A total of 521 respondents were interviewed in all four divisions of Kampala from 1st to 3rd September 1 to 3. Men were 291 while 229 were women. They were asked to take a position on possible removal of the two-term limit, return to federo and a possibility of President Yoweri Museveni standing for re-election.
In a nutshell, 60% did not want Museveni to stand for a third term, 59% opposed the proposed lifting of the two-term limit and 69% wanted federo restored. Their views do not represent those of the entire country. The New Vision is conducting a countrywide survey to give a more representative picture.
It appears that the third term idea is more acceptable among women. Asked whether Museveni should stand again, 42.5% of women said yes, compared to 26.6% of men. On the contrary 66.9% of men and 51.3% of women answered no, while 6.5% of men and 6.1% of women were not sure.
The New Vision opinion polls have consistently shown that Museveni and the Movement enjoy more support among women than men. He also has more support in rural than urban areas.
The survey also reveals that not all people who want the two-term limit lifted, want Museveni to stand again. Of the respondents who said the presidential two-term limit should be lifted, 63.7% said Museveni should stand for a third term, 34.8% said no while 1.5% were not sure.
The three-day survey began 10 days after Government announced that the Cabinet had endorsed a proposal to lift Article 105 (2) of the constitution, which limits a president to two terms of office. At the same time, Cabinet recommended a return to a modified form of federo. Cabinet is to submit the recommendations to the constitutional Review Commission for consideration.
It appears federo and the third term project do not fit together in the minds of voters, though Cabinet put them together. People who want federo were less likely to support the third term project, and people who wanted the third term project were less likely to support federo.
Of the people who did not want Museveni to stand again, 79.2% wanted federo, 13.7% opposed federo while 7.0% were not sure. Of those who wanted Museveni to stand again, 54.3% wanted federo, 24.6% opposed federo while 21.1% were not sure.
Again, of the respondents who wanted federo, 69.1% said no to a third term, supported Museveni standing again, while 4.5% were not sure.
By Joshua Kato
and Henry Mukasa
There are mixed reactions to the outcome of a survey carried out in Kampala. According to the results, Kampala has shifted against the ‘third term.’ 60% of respondents don`t want President Yoweri Museveni to stand again, while 59% don`t want the term limits to be scrapped. The survey also indicated that 69% were in favor of a federal system of governance.
Ofwono Opondo, Director of Information at the Movement Secretariat: “First of all, there is no third term, so the survey was pointless. Secondly, Kampala does not determine national politics,†he says.
James Rwanyarare, Chairman Presidential policy commission of the Uganda People`s Congress says that the survey is a big indicator that the whole idea of the third term is very unpopular in Uganda. “ No one wants it. The people don`t want it, he says. He explains that the only way President Museveni can give himself a third term is through the use of force. “We warn him that he should never think about the idea of using force, even if it is the only option left to him,†he says. As far as federal is concerned, Rwanyarare says that federal is a big issue that should be given to all those who want it without any conditions. “There is no doubt that people want federal, but if it is given, it should be effective devolution of power, but not byoyabyanswa,†he says.
Latif Ssebagala, Member of Parliament, thinks that Kampala is a very small area to judge the real picture on the ground. However, he says that even then, the figures of the survey are below his expectations. “For me, I think that the opposition against the removal of term limits is above 70%,†he says. He adds that the figure of those who want a Federal system for Uganda is fair. “ I think 69% is a fair representation of what is on the ground. People want federal,†he says.
Margaret Zziwa, Kampala Women Member of Parliament while admitting that she cannot refute results of a survey, said the women in Kampala are more concerned with issues that affect their daily lives.
“What can I add on results of an empirical survey? That is what you got. But my people are more concerned about KCC which is chasing them out of their houses in Naguru,†she said.
“Third term isn’t an issue. I was in Naguru and they were concerned being chased out of their houses and formation of associations for development and not federo and third term,†she said.
James Mwandha (disabled) said he will not be surprised when the results of the poll done in Kampala are reflected in a nationwide survey. He said that Ugandans are beginning to realise that talk of opening up political space has some ulterior motives. He demaded that the constitution be nurtured and not tampared with. He said ‘third term’ may take Uganda back to square one.
“Museveni is a good leader. But who knows that we shall get a dictator and manipulate elections every after five years and stays on for ever,†Mwandha said.
Edward Ssentumbwe, Lawyer and Reform Agenda supporter, “The survey shows that the People of Uganda have spoken. We have all along been telling President Museveni that his support has seriously dwindled and there is no use for him to stand again,†he says. He scoffs at those who are saying that because the survey was done in Kampala where the Movement traditionally has very little support, then the results were expected. “We have moved around the country as reformists and we have been able to sensitize even the rural folk, where the Movement claims support, l am sure their minds have changed,†he says.
As far as federal is concerned, Ssentumbwe is of the view that the survey should have been carried out in other parts of the country, rather than in Buganda, where federal support is obvious.
Nyombi Thembo Kampala Movement Chairman and Kassanda South MP: The People of Kassanda want President Museveni to stand contrary to what the survey says. “In my place they want the President to stand for another term. There is almost a 100% concesus,†he says. He says there are so many people agitating for federal. “Wherever I go people are demanding for federal. Federal and term limits should not be traded because this kills the principle for which each is needed and some of us cannot be party to that.â€
Ends
Barely two weeks after the Cabinet recommended lifting of the two-term presidential limit and a return to federalism, it appears the voters in Kampala are disagreeing.
An opinion poll commissioned by The New Vision has revealed that the majority of men and women in the city are opposed to lifting the two-term limit, they do not want Museveni to stand again for re-election, but agree to a possible return to federo.
Deeper analysis indicates that women are more inclined to support the third term project. It also appears to indicate that Kampala voters would rather consider the two-term issue separate from the third term.
A total of 521 respondents were interviewed in all four divisions of Kampala from 1st to 3rd September 1 to 3. Men were 291 while 229 were women. They were asked to take a position on possible removal of the two-term limit, return to federo and a possibility of President Yoweri Museveni standing for re-election.
In a nutshell, 60% did not want Museveni to stand for a third term, 59% opposed the proposed lifting of the two-term limit and 69% wanted federo restored. Their views do not represent those of the entire country. The New Vision is conducting a countrywide survey to give a more representative picture.
It appears that the third term idea is more acceptable among women. Asked whether Museveni should stand again, 42.5% of women said yes, compared to 26.6% of men. On the contrary 66.9% of men and 51.3% of women answered no, while 6.5% of men and 6.1% of women were not sure.
The New Vision opinion polls have consistently shown that Museveni and the Movement enjoy more support among women than men. He also has more support in rural than urban areas.
The survey also reveals that not all people who want the two-term limit lifted, want Museveni to stand again. Of the respondents who said the presidential two-term limit should be lifted, 63.7% said Museveni should stand for a third term, 34.8% said no while 1.5% were not sure.
The three-day survey began 10 days after Government announced that the Cabinet had endorsed a proposal to lift Article 105 (2) of the constitution, which limits a president to two terms of office. At the same time, Cabinet recommended a return to a modified form of federo. Cabinet is to submit the recommendations to the constitutional Review Commission for consideration.
It appears federo and the third term project do not fit together in the minds of voters, though Cabinet put them together. People who want federo were less likely to support the third term project, and people who wanted the third term project were less likely to support federo.
Of the people who did not want Museveni to stand again, 79.2% wanted federo, 13.7% opposed federo while 7.0% were not sure. Of those who wanted Museveni to stand again, 54.3% wanted federo, 24.6% opposed federo while 21.1% were not sure.
Again, of the respondents who wanted federo, 69.1% said no to a third term, supported Museveni standing again, while 4.5% were not sure.
By Joshua Kato
and Henry Mukasa
There are mixed reactions to the outcome of a survey carried out in Kampala. According to the results, Kampala has shifted against the ‘third term.’ 60% of respondents don`t want President Yoweri Museveni to stand again, while 59% don`t want the term limits to be scrapped. The survey also indicated that 69% were in favor of a federal system of governance.
Ofwono Opondo, Director of Information at the Movement Secretariat: “First of all, there is no third term, so the survey was pointless. Secondly, Kampala does not determine national politics,†he says.
James Rwanyarare, Chairman Presidential policy commission of the Uganda People`s Congress says that the survey is a big indicator that the whole idea of the third term is very unpopular in Uganda. “ No one wants it. The people don`t want it, he says. He explains that the only way President Museveni can give himself a third term is through the use of force. “We warn him that he should never think about the idea of using force, even if it is the only option left to him,†he says. As far as federal is concerned, Rwanyarare says that federal is a big issue that should be given to all those who want it without any conditions. “There is no doubt that people want federal, but if it is given, it should be effective devolution of power, but not byoyabyanswa,†he says.
Latif Ssebagala, Member of Parliament, thinks that Kampala is a very small area to judge the real picture on the ground. However, he says that even then, the figures of the survey are below his expectations. “For me, I think that the opposition against the removal of term limits is above 70%,†he says. He adds that the figure of those who want a Federal system for Uganda is fair. “ I think 69% is a fair representation of what is on the ground. People want federal,†he says.
Margaret Zziwa, Kampala Women Member of Parliament while admitting that she cannot refute results of a survey, said the women in Kampala are more concerned with issues that affect their daily lives.
“What can I add on results of an empirical survey? That is what you got. But my people are more concerned about KCC which is chasing them out of their houses in Naguru,†she said.
“Third term isn’t an issue. I was in Naguru and they were concerned being chased out of their houses and formation of associations for development and not federo and third term,†she said.
James Mwandha (disabled) said he will not be surprised when the results of the poll done in Kampala are reflected in a nationwide survey. He said that Ugandans are beginning to realise that talk of opening up political space has some ulterior motives. He demaded that the constitution be nurtured and not tampared with. He said ‘third term’ may take Uganda back to square one.
“Museveni is a good leader. But who knows that we shall get a dictator and manipulate elections every after five years and stays on for ever,†Mwandha said.
Edward Ssentumbwe, Lawyer and Reform Agenda supporter, “The survey shows that the People of Uganda have spoken. We have all along been telling President Museveni that his support has seriously dwindled and there is no use for him to stand again,†he says. He scoffs at those who are saying that because the survey was done in Kampala where the Movement traditionally has very little support, then the results were expected. “We have moved around the country as reformists and we have been able to sensitize even the rural folk, where the Movement claims support, l am sure their minds have changed,†he says.
As far as federal is concerned, Ssentumbwe is of the view that the survey should have been carried out in other parts of the country, rather than in Buganda, where federal support is obvious.
Nyombi Thembo Kampala Movement Chairman and Kassanda South MP: The People of Kassanda want President Museveni to stand contrary to what the survey says. “In my place they want the President to stand for another term. There is almost a 100% concesus,†he says. He says there are so many people agitating for federal. “Wherever I go people are demanding for federal. Federal and term limits should not be traded because this kills the principle for which each is needed and some of us cannot be party to that.â€
Ends