Sudan conflict could halt progress of Juba talks

Oct 16, 2007

PERSPECTIVE OF A UGANDAN IN CANADA<br><br>There is a real potential for the collapse of the peace process between the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the north Sudan government of Omar el-Bashir.

PERSPECTIVE OF A UGANDAN IN CANADA

Opiyo Oloya

There is a real potential for the collapse of the peace process between the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the north Sudan government of Omar el-Bashir.

It could also abruptly halt the current peace talks between the government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), with untold fresh suffering for those yearning for peace.

Simply said, another war between north and south Sudan will never bring good to anybody—everyone suffers, even the victor will be left too bruised to savour the sweet glory of victory.

Nonetheless, the list of grievances listed by the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) is long, including the violation of major parts of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed on January 9, 2005 in Naivasha between Khartoum and the SPLM.

GOSS is particularly worried about the non-compliance by Khartoum on the Abyei Protocol, withdrawal of the Sudan Armed Forces from the south, return to the North-South border as it stood on January 1956, equitable sharing of oil revenues, and power sharing.

There is no question that this is more than just a small wrinkle in the peace process that ended the twenty-one year war with an estimated two and half million people killed, and twice that number displaced in Sudan. But is fresh war likely between Khartoum and Juba?

This question must have crossed the minds of many who are watching the curt exchanges between the Government of Sudan and the fledgling Government of South Sudan. In fact, a fight is likely over the big chunk of oil-rich land in the Abyei area that lie between Kordofan and Bahr el-Ghazal provinces.

Either side is keen to ensure that respective claims to Abyei are recognised as legitimate. More than anything else, Abyei is where the conflict could flare up, plunging the country back to the bad old days of destructive war. Here is why. The roots of the claims by Khartoum and Juba for the Abyei area go back at least some 200 years when Misseriya Arabs migrated from north Africa, passed through current Chad, and settled north of the Bar-el Arab and Ngol rivers in the Muglad area.

Historical evidences authenticated by experts confirm that the Ngok Dinka, having moved west from Upper Nile to Kordofan, also settled in the area around what they called Kir river (Bahr el-Arab River) and Ngol river.

Despite occasional skirmishes, all indications are that the two groups were peaceably good neighbours, sharing common grazing lands and resources from the aforementioned rivers.

In 1905, after the Misseriya conducted raids against the Ngok Dinka, British administrators decided to transfer the authority over the Ngok from Bahr el-Ghazal Province to Kordofan Province.

While this move made it easy for the British to keep an eye on both groups, it effectively cut off the Ngok Dinka from their brethren in the south, lumping them instead with the mostly Arab north, a situation they resented deeply to this day.

In 2004, in order to facilitate the peace process between the SPLM and Khartoum, the Americans played King Solomon by proposing a temporary solution that was satisfactory to the two sides. On May 26, 2004, the Abyei Protocol stipulated the sharing of oil revenue, and the establishment of the Abyei Border Commission (ABC) to settle the border wrangle. To the consternation of President Omar el-Bashir, ABC chaired by Ambassador Donald Peterson, appeared to dismiss the claims by the Misseriya Arabs that their historic area extended south of the Bahr el-Arab river, effectively claiming all of Abyei. Instead, the panel appeared to validate the Ngok Dinkas’ claim of border extending north of Abyei, but short of Muglad.

The natural border between the north and south therefore lay somewhere between Abyei and Muglad towns, a suggestion that greatly angered the Khartoum government. In any event, the matter has come to a head as Khartoum has created road blocks to verify oil money flowing into the coffers. So, rather than be reduced to an onlooker while Khartoum strengthens its hold over the disputed area, and lose by default, the Government of South Sudan has balked and finally said enough is enough.

The only question now is how serious Khartoum is in holding onto Abyei, and how determined the Government of South Sudan about claiming what is rightfully part of its territory is?

The range of options open to Juba is rather limited because it is saddled with a huge challenge of improving the lives of its citizens after the last catastrophic war.

President Salva Kiir needs all the resources, including oil from the Abyei area, to even begin to address the myriad of needs of the people of South Sudan. The bottom line is that it cannot afford to turn its back on Abyei, even if it means taking up arms.

Meanwhile, already savouring the sweet return from oil money, the ever richer government of Sudan under Omar el-Bashir is keen to get even richer by hanging onto the Abyei region. Moreover, Khartoum can afford to go to war given that it is flushed with oil money to buy arms and mercenaries.

Khartoum’s former allies, rebels of the Lord’s Resistance Army may find the allure of cold hard cash hard to resist.

Though war is not inevitable, the scenario is set for some form of confrontation. Only the firm intervention of the international community will dampen the drums of war between the south and the north. Both parties need to be told to cool it otherwise risk serious sanctions as the aggressor.

Khartoum must be told to respect the findings of the Abyei Border Commission and move quickly to implement the recommendation that the border reflects what existed on January 1, 1956.

Opiyo.oloya@sympatico.ca

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