NRM set to grab opposition bases
Jan 22, 2006
There has been talk that the five opposition political parties – Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), Democratic Party (DP), Conservative Party (CP) and Justice Forum (Jeema) agreed to support joint candidates during the parliamentary and local council elections.
There has been talk that the five opposition political parties – Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), Democratic Party (DP), Conservative Party (CP) and Justice Forum (Jeema) agreed to support joint candidates during the parliamentary and local council elections.
Top leaders of the opposition parties have on several occasions stated that their parties were in partnership to ensure that they defeat their common rival (NRM).
On December 24, 2005, DP presidential candidate Ssebaana Kizito convened a meeting of the G6 to agree on a common election strategy. After the meeting, it was announced that the G6 parties had agreed to jointly field parliamentary and local council candidates.
“The G6 have agreed to field a single candidate. In areas like Aswa, where Reagan Okumu of FDC is so popular, there would be no need for any other party to field a candidate,†Norbert Mao, who is Ssebaana’s national campaign director, was quoted as saying.
He stated that the goal was to ensure that the NRM did not get a majority in parliament and in local councils.
However, contrary to these pronouncements, it is now clear that the G6 parties don’t have a common election strategy. True, FDC presidential candidate Col. Kizza Besigye has urged his supporters to support DP or UPC candidates where his party is not fielding any candidate. But officially the G6 parties aren’t actually jointly fielding candidates as they had claimed. In practice the five parties are not only separately fielding candidates, but they are fighting each other for seats in Parliament and local councils.
I argued, about a month ago, that it was very unlikely that the opposition would agree to back a single presidential candidate. I argued that since these are the first multi-party elections in 20 years, each of the G6 party would seek to emerge as the vanguard of the opposition. I stated that for DP and UPC, the struggle isn’t simply to capture state power; it is also to regain ground lost over the years to NRM and FDC.
An analysis of the lineup of candidates for parliament and local councils clearly shows that the five opposition parties aren’t only fighting the NRM; they are also overtly fighting each other. The parties have fielded parliamentary candidates against each other in a significant number of constituencies. The five parties are therefore primarily rivals, but not allies.
In Bugabula South, for instance, the FDC vice-president Salaamu Musumba is battling against the UPC Secretary General Peter Walubiri besides NRM’s Asumani Kiyingi.
FDC and DP are fielding Proscovia Naikoba and Ruth Tibiri respectively against the deputy speaker Rebecca Kadaga, the NRM candidate for the Kamuli district woman MP seat.
In Agago County, FDC vice-president Prof. Ogenga Latigo is facing DP secretary general Prof. Ebil Ottoo and NRM’s Owiny Dollo. In Kibuku County, DP vice-president Juliet Rainer Kafire is battling with David Walter Dongo (FDC) as well as Lt. Kamba Sale (NRM).
In Nwoya County, former DP vice-president Zachary Olum is facing Simon Oyet of FDC, Kilama-Moro of UPC and NRM’s Bernard Oryema.
In Gulu municipality, DP’s Lyando Komakech is battling against Richard Todwong (NRM), Denis Fred-Okema (UPC) and David Oceng-Penytoo (FDC). Omoro MP Jacob Oulanyah (UPC) is facing Ben Acellam (NRM) and Simon Toolit-Akecha (FDC) while in Kilak County; MP Michael Ocula (FDC) is battling against Richard Odokonyero (UPC) and Dan Fred Kidega (NRM) among others.
Former Lubaga South MP and CP President John Ken Lukyamuzi is a vocal advocate of an opposition coalition. Nonetheless, when he was knocked out of the race, he fielded his daughter Susan Nampijja Lukyamuzi against DP’s Joseph Balikuddembe. Also Kibirige Mayanja’s Jeema which has been strongly advocating for a coalition has fielded Hussein Kyanjo against MP Nsubuga Nsambu (CP) and Mukasa Mbidde (DP) in Makindye West.
There are more than 50 key constituencies with multiple opposition candidates. This is suicidal for the opposition. I won’t be surprised if the opposition loses constituencies, which have hitherto been known to be its strongholds. I do not, however, think the opposition can belatedly resolve this problem. Personal ambitions of candidates and party rivalries are too strong and will override all other considerations.
Ends
Top leaders of the opposition parties have on several occasions stated that their parties were in partnership to ensure that they defeat their common rival (NRM).
On December 24, 2005, DP presidential candidate Ssebaana Kizito convened a meeting of the G6 to agree on a common election strategy. After the meeting, it was announced that the G6 parties had agreed to jointly field parliamentary and local council candidates.
“The G6 have agreed to field a single candidate. In areas like Aswa, where Reagan Okumu of FDC is so popular, there would be no need for any other party to field a candidate,†Norbert Mao, who is Ssebaana’s national campaign director, was quoted as saying.
He stated that the goal was to ensure that the NRM did not get a majority in parliament and in local councils.
However, contrary to these pronouncements, it is now clear that the G6 parties don’t have a common election strategy. True, FDC presidential candidate Col. Kizza Besigye has urged his supporters to support DP or UPC candidates where his party is not fielding any candidate. But officially the G6 parties aren’t actually jointly fielding candidates as they had claimed. In practice the five parties are not only separately fielding candidates, but they are fighting each other for seats in Parliament and local councils.
I argued, about a month ago, that it was very unlikely that the opposition would agree to back a single presidential candidate. I argued that since these are the first multi-party elections in 20 years, each of the G6 party would seek to emerge as the vanguard of the opposition. I stated that for DP and UPC, the struggle isn’t simply to capture state power; it is also to regain ground lost over the years to NRM and FDC.
An analysis of the lineup of candidates for parliament and local councils clearly shows that the five opposition parties aren’t only fighting the NRM; they are also overtly fighting each other. The parties have fielded parliamentary candidates against each other in a significant number of constituencies. The five parties are therefore primarily rivals, but not allies.
In Bugabula South, for instance, the FDC vice-president Salaamu Musumba is battling against the UPC Secretary General Peter Walubiri besides NRM’s Asumani Kiyingi.
FDC and DP are fielding Proscovia Naikoba and Ruth Tibiri respectively against the deputy speaker Rebecca Kadaga, the NRM candidate for the Kamuli district woman MP seat.
In Agago County, FDC vice-president Prof. Ogenga Latigo is facing DP secretary general Prof. Ebil Ottoo and NRM’s Owiny Dollo. In Kibuku County, DP vice-president Juliet Rainer Kafire is battling with David Walter Dongo (FDC) as well as Lt. Kamba Sale (NRM).
In Nwoya County, former DP vice-president Zachary Olum is facing Simon Oyet of FDC, Kilama-Moro of UPC and NRM’s Bernard Oryema.
In Gulu municipality, DP’s Lyando Komakech is battling against Richard Todwong (NRM), Denis Fred-Okema (UPC) and David Oceng-Penytoo (FDC). Omoro MP Jacob Oulanyah (UPC) is facing Ben Acellam (NRM) and Simon Toolit-Akecha (FDC) while in Kilak County; MP Michael Ocula (FDC) is battling against Richard Odokonyero (UPC) and Dan Fred Kidega (NRM) among others.
Former Lubaga South MP and CP President John Ken Lukyamuzi is a vocal advocate of an opposition coalition. Nonetheless, when he was knocked out of the race, he fielded his daughter Susan Nampijja Lukyamuzi against DP’s Joseph Balikuddembe. Also Kibirige Mayanja’s Jeema which has been strongly advocating for a coalition has fielded Hussein Kyanjo against MP Nsubuga Nsambu (CP) and Mukasa Mbidde (DP) in Makindye West.
There are more than 50 key constituencies with multiple opposition candidates. This is suicidal for the opposition. I won’t be surprised if the opposition loses constituencies, which have hitherto been known to be its strongholds. I do not, however, think the opposition can belatedly resolve this problem. Personal ambitions of candidates and party rivalries are too strong and will override all other considerations.
Ends