Who stands to gain from Obote’s return?
Apr 12, 2005
<b>Asuman Bisiika</b><br><br>Press reports that former President Apollo Milton Obote will return from exile after 20 years have created excitement in the entire body politic. <br>At this time of transition from the the Movement system of governance to political pluralism, the excitement derives f
Asuman Bisiika
Press reports that former President Apollo Milton Obote will return from exile after 20 years have created excitement in the entire body politic.
At this time of transition from the the Movement system of governance to political pluralism, the excitement derives from the fact that some people think Obote is likely to play an active political role.
Despite earlier misgivings about his return, there seems to be a general consensus that Obote should be allowed to return unconditionally. This is reflected in some Cabinet ministers’ positive response on whether Obote should return or not.
However, with the unanimity of the responses from the ministers, one would be tempted to think Obote’s return had been discussed at Cabinet level earlier before the press reports. It is clear that, despite his strong dislike for Obote, President Yoweri Museveni is inclined to let the old man return home.
But who would benefit from Dr Obote’s return to this country? Or to make the question broader, of what value is Dr Obote’s return to the politics of this country?
This question is, of course, hypothetically based on the assumption that Obote would play an active political role when he returns.
But then whether Obote becomes politically active or not, President Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) would be the biggest beneficiaries.
If he retires like former President Godfrey Binaisa did, Museveni will claim to have neutralised him; if he plays an active political role in the Uganda People’s Congress, still Museveni will claim credit to have exercised some magnanimity by allowing Obote to return.
Opposition groups, perhaps not sure about how the return of the old man, will affect their political fortunes, have responded with reluctance or ambiguity. Some-thing like: ‘he may come but...’
Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)’s potential presidential candidate says Obote’s return will give President Museveni some moral weight.
“I am really reluctant to comment on the leadership of other opposition groups but I strongly believe all opposition groups should co-operate. So, if Obote’s return can strengthen UPC, then it will be good for the opposition, particularly under the umbrella of G6â€, says Muntu.
However, we should appreciate the fact that Obote is now old and frail. Veteran politician Bidandi Ssali was recently quoted in the press as saying Obote was only coming to preside over the transition of leadership in UPC. Bidandi Ssali’s reading into Obote’s return is plausible. In fact, if Obote presides over the transition of leadership in UPC, it will give him some a chance to influence the succession process and probably an opportunity to choose his successor.
In the event that Obote selects a young party member to lead UPC, say of between 40 and 50 years of age, this will propel the party to resurgence in political fortunes.
There is this assumption that UPC with another leader at the helm, would be able to make inroads into Buganda region. In spite of Obote’s sentimental influence on UPC, he is very repugnant to people in central Uganda.
Another scenario is where a young UPC leader would re-align the party in appreciation of the political realities on the ground.
A closer co-operation with other political parties like FDC would make UPC’s rather sharp edges blunt and render it a loser in some parts of the country.
Perhaps the political group that will not benefit from Obote’s return is the Democratic Party (DP).
Although it is unlikely that some people would leave DP to join UPC, a presumed strong UPC would relegate the DP to a serious level of inconsequence in the politics of the country. DP would be left in the fourth position after the NRM, FDC and UPC.
But analysts should be cautious about reading too much into Obote’s influence. We should appreciate the fact that Obote is now too old and frail to address two rallies in one day in two districts.
Press reports that former President Apollo Milton Obote will return from exile after 20 years have created excitement in the entire body politic.
At this time of transition from the the Movement system of governance to political pluralism, the excitement derives from the fact that some people think Obote is likely to play an active political role.
Despite earlier misgivings about his return, there seems to be a general consensus that Obote should be allowed to return unconditionally. This is reflected in some Cabinet ministers’ positive response on whether Obote should return or not.
However, with the unanimity of the responses from the ministers, one would be tempted to think Obote’s return had been discussed at Cabinet level earlier before the press reports. It is clear that, despite his strong dislike for Obote, President Yoweri Museveni is inclined to let the old man return home.
But who would benefit from Dr Obote’s return to this country? Or to make the question broader, of what value is Dr Obote’s return to the politics of this country?
This question is, of course, hypothetically based on the assumption that Obote would play an active political role when he returns.
But then whether Obote becomes politically active or not, President Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) would be the biggest beneficiaries.
If he retires like former President Godfrey Binaisa did, Museveni will claim to have neutralised him; if he plays an active political role in the Uganda People’s Congress, still Museveni will claim credit to have exercised some magnanimity by allowing Obote to return.
Opposition groups, perhaps not sure about how the return of the old man, will affect their political fortunes, have responded with reluctance or ambiguity. Some-thing like: ‘he may come but...’
Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)’s potential presidential candidate says Obote’s return will give President Museveni some moral weight.
“I am really reluctant to comment on the leadership of other opposition groups but I strongly believe all opposition groups should co-operate. So, if Obote’s return can strengthen UPC, then it will be good for the opposition, particularly under the umbrella of G6â€, says Muntu.
However, we should appreciate the fact that Obote is now old and frail. Veteran politician Bidandi Ssali was recently quoted in the press as saying Obote was only coming to preside over the transition of leadership in UPC. Bidandi Ssali’s reading into Obote’s return is plausible. In fact, if Obote presides over the transition of leadership in UPC, it will give him some a chance to influence the succession process and probably an opportunity to choose his successor.
In the event that Obote selects a young party member to lead UPC, say of between 40 and 50 years of age, this will propel the party to resurgence in political fortunes.
There is this assumption that UPC with another leader at the helm, would be able to make inroads into Buganda region. In spite of Obote’s sentimental influence on UPC, he is very repugnant to people in central Uganda.
Another scenario is where a young UPC leader would re-align the party in appreciation of the political realities on the ground.
A closer co-operation with other political parties like FDC would make UPC’s rather sharp edges blunt and render it a loser in some parts of the country.
Perhaps the political group that will not benefit from Obote’s return is the Democratic Party (DP).
Although it is unlikely that some people would leave DP to join UPC, a presumed strong UPC would relegate the DP to a serious level of inconsequence in the politics of the country. DP would be left in the fourth position after the NRM, FDC and UPC.
But analysts should be cautious about reading too much into Obote’s influence. We should appreciate the fact that Obote is now too old and frail to address two rallies in one day in two districts.