Dr Besigye, the NRM is not a bag of potatoes!
Oct 27, 2005
THE good is news is that Dr Kizza Besigye is back from his self-imposed exile in South Africa from where he was mouthing armed rebellion allegedly because “eight conditions,†exist in Uganda for it.
THE good is news is that Dr Kizza Besigye is back from his self-imposed exile in South Africa from where he was mouthing armed rebellion allegedly because “eight conditions,†exist in Uganda for it.
The bad news is he has not changed his political spots especially the defiant and belligerent tone, and somehow, hopes, he can demolish the NRM revolution and become president of Uganda through the 2006 general elections! Of course Besigye and his colleagues in the FDC, and the rest of the opposition are entitled to shout defiantly, and to choose whichever campaign rhetoric and method. after all, the ballot box will decide which team is actually popular and viable to Ugandans.
One hopes that his team will refrain from provoking and orchestrating violent electioneering methods as they did in 2001, because if they don’t, an equal opposite force may respond. But ladies and gentlemen, opposition groups, and critics, below is an assessment of why neither Besigye’s FDC, nor the combined opposition can even remotely defeat the NRM at the 2006 elections, whether at LCs, parliament or presidency. That can only be a fantasy because obviously the NRM as is well known, is not a bag of potatoes to be pushed over easily.
By tomorrow, the NRM would have concluded its one-month-long countryside elections for internal party organs, setting a major stage for competition for its national leadership during its National Conference (NC) scheduled from November 10-15, at Mandela national stadium, Namboole.
The conference will attract over 6,000 delegates from all the 1,000 sub-counties, and 70 districts representing NRM LCs, special interest groups, and the mainstream organs, and MPs to elect national leaders, including the NRM presidential candidate for the 2006 elections. The sub-county and district NRM leaders elected this month alongside incumbent LCs and all MPs subscribing to the NRM form part of the NC.
There are 242 registered NRM members in parliament out of the 304 MPs! By the end of tomorrow’s elections, the NRM will be having two million popularly elected leaders, with one and half million of them at village level.
Being an election year, with that number, the forecast of the 2006 national general elections is clearly in favour of the NRM unless a black cat crosses the road to the polling stations.
With two million recently elected leaders, and each of them bringing out only three voters for NRM, out of the 8.5 million registered voters with the national Electoral Commission, the fate of all the combined opposition parties is not difficult to ascertain. The opposition, noisy as they may be mainly in the media and urban centres is set to feed on crumbs. The best the opposition can arguably hope to achieve is possibly to retain its present strength and populist activism in parliament. But even then, the consolidation of NRM internal party discipline, cohesion, research, and debating skills, it should be easy to democratically handle the opposition intransigence as political inconvenience in the coming parliament. For the NRM candidates in the primaries especially for district and parliamentary seats, they should also be ready to brave a strong internal storm because the NRM democracy is vibrant and vigilant as there are many challengers.
Those scheming to use underhand methods like fraud, cheating and bribing members of the electoral colleges should watch their backs, because, if caught, they could easily get disqualified from party contests. Similarly, those who will lose as is expected in any election will have to rally behind the winner as the NRM flag bearer, rather hoping to come in as independent candidates, or refusing to support the party line. And although a lot may be at stake both in the internal elections, and in competition with other political groups, democratic elections ought not turn into a do or die exercise, after all, only five years down the road there will be another election circle!
Aspirants selling or mortgaging their estates to join electoral politics are better advised that actually with increased transparency, and accountability, any expectations for huge monetary gain in politics is a dull dream.
For the NRM cadres and political workers, it is time for some of them to consider remaining behind to contribute in building a strong and vibrant party secretariat and machinery across the country.
Sometimes, you may not be able to do this when all of you are also part of the government, and the state, that you are supposed to supervise, especially in face of a weak and disoriented opposition like the ones in Uganda.
Ends
The bad news is he has not changed his political spots especially the defiant and belligerent tone, and somehow, hopes, he can demolish the NRM revolution and become president of Uganda through the 2006 general elections! Of course Besigye and his colleagues in the FDC, and the rest of the opposition are entitled to shout defiantly, and to choose whichever campaign rhetoric and method. after all, the ballot box will decide which team is actually popular and viable to Ugandans.
One hopes that his team will refrain from provoking and orchestrating violent electioneering methods as they did in 2001, because if they don’t, an equal opposite force may respond. But ladies and gentlemen, opposition groups, and critics, below is an assessment of why neither Besigye’s FDC, nor the combined opposition can even remotely defeat the NRM at the 2006 elections, whether at LCs, parliament or presidency. That can only be a fantasy because obviously the NRM as is well known, is not a bag of potatoes to be pushed over easily.
By tomorrow, the NRM would have concluded its one-month-long countryside elections for internal party organs, setting a major stage for competition for its national leadership during its National Conference (NC) scheduled from November 10-15, at Mandela national stadium, Namboole.
The conference will attract over 6,000 delegates from all the 1,000 sub-counties, and 70 districts representing NRM LCs, special interest groups, and the mainstream organs, and MPs to elect national leaders, including the NRM presidential candidate for the 2006 elections. The sub-county and district NRM leaders elected this month alongside incumbent LCs and all MPs subscribing to the NRM form part of the NC.
There are 242 registered NRM members in parliament out of the 304 MPs! By the end of tomorrow’s elections, the NRM will be having two million popularly elected leaders, with one and half million of them at village level.
Being an election year, with that number, the forecast of the 2006 national general elections is clearly in favour of the NRM unless a black cat crosses the road to the polling stations.
With two million recently elected leaders, and each of them bringing out only three voters for NRM, out of the 8.5 million registered voters with the national Electoral Commission, the fate of all the combined opposition parties is not difficult to ascertain. The opposition, noisy as they may be mainly in the media and urban centres is set to feed on crumbs. The best the opposition can arguably hope to achieve is possibly to retain its present strength and populist activism in parliament. But even then, the consolidation of NRM internal party discipline, cohesion, research, and debating skills, it should be easy to democratically handle the opposition intransigence as political inconvenience in the coming parliament. For the NRM candidates in the primaries especially for district and parliamentary seats, they should also be ready to brave a strong internal storm because the NRM democracy is vibrant and vigilant as there are many challengers.
Those scheming to use underhand methods like fraud, cheating and bribing members of the electoral colleges should watch their backs, because, if caught, they could easily get disqualified from party contests. Similarly, those who will lose as is expected in any election will have to rally behind the winner as the NRM flag bearer, rather hoping to come in as independent candidates, or refusing to support the party line. And although a lot may be at stake both in the internal elections, and in competition with other political groups, democratic elections ought not turn into a do or die exercise, after all, only five years down the road there will be another election circle!
Aspirants selling or mortgaging their estates to join electoral politics are better advised that actually with increased transparency, and accountability, any expectations for huge monetary gain in politics is a dull dream.
For the NRM cadres and political workers, it is time for some of them to consider remaining behind to contribute in building a strong and vibrant party secretariat and machinery across the country.
Sometimes, you may not be able to do this when all of you are also part of the government, and the state, that you are supposed to supervise, especially in face of a weak and disoriented opposition like the ones in Uganda.
Ends