Constitutional crisis looming ahead
May 04, 2004
THE Catholic bishops issued a pastoral letter, April 30, urging the Government to guarantee that the anticipated transition is credible and inclusive.
THE Catholic bishops issued a pastoral letter, April 30, urging the Government to guarantee that the anticipated transition is credible and inclusive.
The Bishops contended that to ensure a transparent transition, the necessary Constitutional amendments should not be delayed nor hurried.
The Bishops’ concerns are pertinent. The delay by the Government to give a clear political roadmap is causing fears.
The Government has grossly underestimated the magnitude of the work to be done and the intricacy of amending the Constitution.
There are legitimate fears within the Parliament that time is running out and it may be difficult to carry out the exercise in time for the 2006 presidential and parliamentary elections.
One issue yet to be resolved is what transition Ugnda is expected to undergo. The Government has been ambiguous on this issue.
But Ugandans understand transition to involve changing from the Movement system to multiparty politics and that the incumbent President would be stepping down.
Both these would be politically taxing and would need thorough preparations. Sadly, there are no clear preparations going on because it’s not yet sure there’d be a shift to multiparty politics.
This is because the Government wants these issues to be resolved through referenda, which wouldn’t take place until 2005. Should the people vote in favour of opening up political space, there would hardly be any time for smooth transition to multiparty politics.
It would appear the Government is only planning for referenda on lifting of presidential two-term limit and change of political system by February 2005.
But to some constitutional experts, it’ll be a gross miscalculation for Government to imagine that there would be no need for subsequent referenda. An analysis of Chapter 18 of the Constitution shows there is a high probability that the Constitutional amendment Bill would require holding a referendum before it is enacted.
Several articles lined up for amendments are entrenched.
Under article 259, a Bill seeking to amend any of the fixed provisions “shall not be taken as passed unless — (b) it has been referred to a decision of the people and approved by them in a referendum.†Other articles lined up for amendment would require ratification by two-thirds of district councils a process that’d not be concluded in a matter of weeks.
Given that Parliament would not pass the Constitutional amendment Bill until mid 2005, it is logical to anticipate that, the constitutional review would be concluded during the second half of 2005.
The Parliament would then proceed to enact laws for multiparty presidential and parliamentary elections either in 2005 or 2006. If my projections were exact, Uganda’d face a constitutional crisis, on one hand unable to organise presidential elections in the prescribed time and on other hand incapable of effecting a Constitutional amendment to postpone the elections.
The Bishops contended that to ensure a transparent transition, the necessary Constitutional amendments should not be delayed nor hurried.
The Bishops’ concerns are pertinent. The delay by the Government to give a clear political roadmap is causing fears.
The Government has grossly underestimated the magnitude of the work to be done and the intricacy of amending the Constitution.
There are legitimate fears within the Parliament that time is running out and it may be difficult to carry out the exercise in time for the 2006 presidential and parliamentary elections.
One issue yet to be resolved is what transition Ugnda is expected to undergo. The Government has been ambiguous on this issue.
But Ugandans understand transition to involve changing from the Movement system to multiparty politics and that the incumbent President would be stepping down.
Both these would be politically taxing and would need thorough preparations. Sadly, there are no clear preparations going on because it’s not yet sure there’d be a shift to multiparty politics.
This is because the Government wants these issues to be resolved through referenda, which wouldn’t take place until 2005. Should the people vote in favour of opening up political space, there would hardly be any time for smooth transition to multiparty politics.
It would appear the Government is only planning for referenda on lifting of presidential two-term limit and change of political system by February 2005.
But to some constitutional experts, it’ll be a gross miscalculation for Government to imagine that there would be no need for subsequent referenda. An analysis of Chapter 18 of the Constitution shows there is a high probability that the Constitutional amendment Bill would require holding a referendum before it is enacted.
Several articles lined up for amendments are entrenched.
Under article 259, a Bill seeking to amend any of the fixed provisions “shall not be taken as passed unless — (b) it has been referred to a decision of the people and approved by them in a referendum.†Other articles lined up for amendment would require ratification by two-thirds of district councils a process that’d not be concluded in a matter of weeks.
Given that Parliament would not pass the Constitutional amendment Bill until mid 2005, it is logical to anticipate that, the constitutional review would be concluded during the second half of 2005.
The Parliament would then proceed to enact laws for multiparty presidential and parliamentary elections either in 2005 or 2006. If my projections were exact, Uganda’d face a constitutional crisis, on one hand unable to organise presidential elections in the prescribed time and on other hand incapable of effecting a Constitutional amendment to postpone the elections.