Can ANT become a leading opposition party?

 

 

 

For instance, let us reflect on political parties in Kenya and Uganda in the last 35 years. Without giving specific examples, I can state that in Kenya every strong political party has emerged as result of killing or weakening one or more strong political parties.

 

In Uganda, the political pillars of National Resistance Movement Organisation (NRMO) came from Uganda Patriotic Movement (UPM), Uganda Peoples' Congress (UPC) and the Democratic Party (DP).

 

The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) was initially a merger of Reform Agenda and Parliament Advocacy Forum (PAFO). PAFO was comprised mainly of NRMO subscribing Members of Parliament MPs). Later FDC was boosted by more defections from NRMO, DP and UPC to become the leading opposition party.

 

The Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) is mainly a breakaway faction from FDC led by the former Party President Gen. Mugisha Muntu.

 

If the above lessons are anything to go by, for ANT to be a true alliance of members from various political parties in Uganda, it should be able to first and foremost get serious members of FDC defect to it. When I talk of serous members, I am referring to current politicians at the level of MP, LC V to LC III chairpersons and councilors and members of FDC at the level of National Executive Council.

 

Then this would trigger political defections at these same levels from NRMO, UPC and DP to ANT. The excuse that we should wait for defections in 2020 since politicians are allowed to change from one political party to another one year to the end of the term of parliament is not convincing.

 

If ANT is to have a serious start and impact before embarking on countrywide recruitment of members, we need to see at the very least five (5) current MPs declaring that come 2020 they will join ANT.

 

Declaring is not the same as resigning and so this cannot make them lose their seats in Parliament. But in any case, if I was Hon. Winnie Kizza, I would resign now and go through a by-election and win it as test to show that MPs and other politicians can win seats in areas that were for FDC under ANT.

 

In short, if Hon Winnie Kizza cannot defect to ANT now who will?  In my view, ANT will not attract members from other parties if the current politicians who are alleged to be behind it cannot come out and show their allegiance and support. A party cannot be built on politicians who lost elections and those who have never won an election as its foundation.

 

Therefore, the real test for Gen Mugisha Muntu and ANT is to convince key national politicians in other parties to join them in the national recruitment exercise. 

 

The second test is that you cannot have two bulls in kraal i.e. there should be a clear leading opposition party as we go into 2021 national elections. So, for ANT to make any impact, it must be able to weaken FDC through mass defections so that the public can begin to see it as a prospective leading opposition political party.

 

The defections we have so far seen from FDC to ANT have not caused the excitement in the public that could lead to a mass exodus of politicians from other parties to ANT. 

 

The 3rd test for ANT is that it must come out right from the onset and declare that it shall field a Presidential Candidate in 2021. If it does not, then the politicians in ANT will be like a family without a father.

 

This theory of first building structures focusing on getting MPs and LC1 to LC5 councilors and chairpersons cannot build a political party in Uganda.

 

Actually, UPC and DP were weakened by FDC when they gave in to FDC and supported the FDC Presidential Candidate without fielding their own candidates in 2006.  A serious political party is judged by its efforts to capture state power i.e. the Presidency.

 

If FDC MPs keep FDC and ANT guessing on where they belong come 2020, then my advice to FDC is that come 2020 offer all FDC current MPs, councilors and chairpersons that are interested in contesting in 2021 the FDC ticket without them having to contest for it and they shall not leave FDC.

 

Then only hold competitions for FDC Party flag bearers where you don't currently have an elected party member.

 

This way ANT will join the ranks of other small political parties that shall have less than 10 MPs in Parliament and with time it shall be written off like suubi 2011 pressure group and other pressure groups that served their purpose and had no potential for a long-term political alliance or party.