FDC could not have won the 2016 elections

May 06, 2016

FDC fielded just one candidate per constituency but covered just half the country, rendering YKM unopposed in half the country

By Beti Olive Kamya

The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) demand for an international audit of the 2016 general elections might be reasonable, however, in keeping with international legal practice, it should be justified by a prima facie case argued before a neutral, international body.

If such were the conditionality for the audit, FDC would argue that Dr Kizza Besigye (KB) must have won the Presidential Elections on the basis of;

(i) the huge and generous crowds that attended his public rallies

(ii) late delivery of electoral material in his strongholds of Kampala and Wakiso electoral areas must have disenfranchised many of his voters

(iii) Candidate Museveni's (YKM) use of public resources gave him unfair advantage over his competitors

(iv) results recorded on 75% of KB's declaration of results forms show that he got 52% of the votes cast thus far, therefore, results posted on EC website and which the EC attempted to hand deliver to KB were falsified (with such evidence, the arbitration body would seek to know why KB did not apply to court to be joined to the Mbabazi petition, if efforts to file his own petition had been frustrated by the State).

(v) Harassment and intimidation of KBs polling agents                       

(vi) disempowerment of social media etc.

The favourable environment created for NRM by state resources notwithstanding, NRM would counter argue that it was not possible for KB to win this election because:   

(i) NRM Party has an executive committee of 30 people in each of 60,000 villages, 10,000 parishes, 1,200 sub counties, 320 directly elected parliamentary constituencies and 112 districts, guarantying their candidate YKM, 2,148,960 votes at "get set" stage

(ii) of 486 elective seats available in Parliament, FDC contested for just 198 seats, of 112 seats available for the chairperson LC 5, FDC contested in just 43 districts, of about 1,200 sub county / municipality seats available for the chairperson of LC 3 and mayors, FDC contested for only about 280  

(iii) In all constituencies of all levels, NRM fielded an official flag bearer and had at least three NRM-leaning independents, all campaigning for YKM, which means that YKM had at least 45 people campaigning for him in each of 60,000 villages of Uganda (that is, at least three candidates for each seat of Parliament, LC5 chairperson, LC5 councilor, LC3 chairperson, LC3 councillor seats, plus the 30 members of NRM village executive committees). This consolidated NRM votes for YKM.

Conversely, FDC fielded just one candidate per constituency but covered just half the country, rendering YKM unopposed in half the country.

In Kampala, Wakiso, Kasese, Mbale, Mukono and Masaka, where the opposition had a strong presence, Dr Besigye won, which means that there is a strong correlation between candidates of lower levels fielded by a party and the results of its presidential candidate.   

With due respect, while pro-Besigye propaganda is deafeningly loud, science, quietly but firmly says it was not possible for KB to win this election, not because he is not popular, but because he has not invested in building party structures but rather, he invested in building the ‘Brand, Besigye! It is for this reason, more than any other, that if I had influence in NRM, I would urge them to rise to the challenge and support the audit.

If he were in school, Besigye's end of term report card would read "He is excellent on propaganda and has the aptitude and potential to top his class, but he needs to be scientific and acquire numbers through establishment of party structures……."

There is no magic here, it is what NRM does and what General Muntu was wisely trying to do. Science, authoritative with figures and facts will always carry the day, while propaganda can only reach its limits…..before it collapses!

The writer is the President of the Uganda Federal Alliance

ufapresident@gmail.com

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