The AU must tell Bashir to his face about the elections
Apr 08, 2010
I was one of those East Africans who celebrated the Sudanese Peace Accord signed in Nairobi in 2005. Even though I was far away in North America, I was elated to see General Collin Powell, then USA secretary of state for foreign relations join other African heads of state to witness the event in Nai
AN EST AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE
By Jerry Okungu
I was one of those East Africans who celebrated the Sudanese Peace Accord signed in Nairobi in 2005. Even though I was far away in North America, I was elated to see General Collin Powell, then USA secretary of state for foreign relations join other African heads of state to witness the event in Nairobi.
A few weeks later, the swearing in of John Garang in Khartoum as the country’s vice president with Omar El Bashir in attendance and all those generals that had fought a bitter war in the bush for 21 years, the occasion was reminiscent of a Mandela’s victory a decade earlier in South Africa.
Garang’s acceptance speech, though in fluent Arabic left no doubt in anybody’s mind that truly, a great leader had emerged in Sudan.
When John Garang died in a tragic air crash just three weeks after his swearing in, the entire country and indeed the rest of Africa and the world was stunned. The turmoil that engulfed Khartoum and other cities could have got worse had it not been for the presence of mind of the top leadership of the SPLM led by General Salva Kiir, the current President of South Sudan and the Vice President of the Republic of Sudan.
Two major components of the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) were that the first general elections would be held in 2009 following a national census. After the elections, a special referendum would be held in South Sudan to let the people decide whether to continue being part of Sudan or break away and form their own country.
Five years down the line, a lot of water has passed under the bridge. John Garang’s body remains buried in the centre of Juba. The Darfur genocide has dented the image of Omar El Bashir and as a result the Sudanese President has been indicted in an international court with a warrant of arrest hanging over his head. As if that is not enough, it would appear like the leaders who took the mantle from Garang in the South have not measured up. The man they offered for presidential elections has chickened out citing pre-rigged elections in many parts of North Sudan. This scenario spells doom for the CPA in Sudan. If Bashir gets elected almost unopposed, it will be the first time that a criminal and a fugitive will have been elected a head of state!
As it is, Bashir is breathing fire and brimstone warning that if the Southerners boycott the polls, then there will be no referendum. In essence Bashir is blackmailing them to go to the polls or else the CPA will be nullified. If he carries his threat, South Sudan will now indefinitely remain a part of Sudan whether its people like it or not. Knowing the history of Sudan, the Southerners will not take Bashir’s threats lying down.
There will surely be round two of the North-South conflict, this time with dire consequences since the Southerners have been arming, training and strengthening their military capabilities. If this scenario escalates without urgent resolutions in sight, war will break out in Sudan sooner than all of us may imagine. If that happens, more refugees will begin an influx into northern Kenya, Northern Uganda and into any other country that shares its borders with Sudan’s vast territory. This development will be good news for Joseph Kony’s LRA that may just find it convenient to return to its traditional bases, a trend that will not augur well for the war-torn northern Uganda that is just beginning to recover from the atrocities of armed conflict.
With the Al Shabaab militias still causing havoc in Somalia, turmoil in Sudan will definitely destabilise the Horn of Africa and the entire Great Lakes Region, considering that the LRA escapades are felt as far as the DRC, Central African Republic and Chad. But perhaps the new phase of conflict that is imminent should be put at the doorsteps of the African Union.
This is the club that turned a blind eye to the atrocities of the Darfur massacres and sought instead to shield one of their own from international prosecution. Had the AU not protected Bashir, had The Hague taken Bashir, it would today be a different ball game in Sudan.
Chances are that a more rational crop of leadership would have emerged to deal comprehensively with the South’s situation and even the Darfur conflict. If the Southerners defy the central government and declare their independence with or without a referendum, will the AU deny them their right to self-- determination in preference to Bashir?
If Darfur erupts again, how will the AU manage two wars on two fronts knowing very well that its past interventions in Darfur have not been exemplary? Now it is up to the AU to arrest the situation and tell Bashir to his face that the presidential elections must be postponed for at least one more month if not six months.
jerry@jerryokungu.com
By Jerry Okungu
I was one of those East Africans who celebrated the Sudanese Peace Accord signed in Nairobi in 2005. Even though I was far away in North America, I was elated to see General Collin Powell, then USA secretary of state for foreign relations join other African heads of state to witness the event in Nairobi.
A few weeks later, the swearing in of John Garang in Khartoum as the country’s vice president with Omar El Bashir in attendance and all those generals that had fought a bitter war in the bush for 21 years, the occasion was reminiscent of a Mandela’s victory a decade earlier in South Africa.
Garang’s acceptance speech, though in fluent Arabic left no doubt in anybody’s mind that truly, a great leader had emerged in Sudan.
When John Garang died in a tragic air crash just three weeks after his swearing in, the entire country and indeed the rest of Africa and the world was stunned. The turmoil that engulfed Khartoum and other cities could have got worse had it not been for the presence of mind of the top leadership of the SPLM led by General Salva Kiir, the current President of South Sudan and the Vice President of the Republic of Sudan.
Two major components of the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) were that the first general elections would be held in 2009 following a national census. After the elections, a special referendum would be held in South Sudan to let the people decide whether to continue being part of Sudan or break away and form their own country.
Five years down the line, a lot of water has passed under the bridge. John Garang’s body remains buried in the centre of Juba. The Darfur genocide has dented the image of Omar El Bashir and as a result the Sudanese President has been indicted in an international court with a warrant of arrest hanging over his head. As if that is not enough, it would appear like the leaders who took the mantle from Garang in the South have not measured up. The man they offered for presidential elections has chickened out citing pre-rigged elections in many parts of North Sudan. This scenario spells doom for the CPA in Sudan. If Bashir gets elected almost unopposed, it will be the first time that a criminal and a fugitive will have been elected a head of state!
As it is, Bashir is breathing fire and brimstone warning that if the Southerners boycott the polls, then there will be no referendum. In essence Bashir is blackmailing them to go to the polls or else the CPA will be nullified. If he carries his threat, South Sudan will now indefinitely remain a part of Sudan whether its people like it or not. Knowing the history of Sudan, the Southerners will not take Bashir’s threats lying down.
There will surely be round two of the North-South conflict, this time with dire consequences since the Southerners have been arming, training and strengthening their military capabilities. If this scenario escalates without urgent resolutions in sight, war will break out in Sudan sooner than all of us may imagine. If that happens, more refugees will begin an influx into northern Kenya, Northern Uganda and into any other country that shares its borders with Sudan’s vast territory. This development will be good news for Joseph Kony’s LRA that may just find it convenient to return to its traditional bases, a trend that will not augur well for the war-torn northern Uganda that is just beginning to recover from the atrocities of armed conflict.
With the Al Shabaab militias still causing havoc in Somalia, turmoil in Sudan will definitely destabilise the Horn of Africa and the entire Great Lakes Region, considering that the LRA escapades are felt as far as the DRC, Central African Republic and Chad. But perhaps the new phase of conflict that is imminent should be put at the doorsteps of the African Union.
This is the club that turned a blind eye to the atrocities of the Darfur massacres and sought instead to shield one of their own from international prosecution. Had the AU not protected Bashir, had The Hague taken Bashir, it would today be a different ball game in Sudan.
Chances are that a more rational crop of leadership would have emerged to deal comprehensively with the South’s situation and even the Darfur conflict. If the Southerners defy the central government and declare their independence with or without a referendum, will the AU deny them their right to self-- determination in preference to Bashir?
If Darfur erupts again, how will the AU manage two wars on two fronts knowing very well that its past interventions in Darfur have not been exemplary? Now it is up to the AU to arrest the situation and tell Bashir to his face that the presidential elections must be postponed for at least one more month if not six months.
jerry@jerryokungu.com