Implications of UPC pulling out of IPC

Aug 30, 2010

THE Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) yesterday announced that it had pulled out of the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC). The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) now remains in the alliance with only small parties, Social Democratic Party (SDP), Conservative Party and Justice Forum (JEEMA).

THE Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) yesterday announced that it had pulled out of the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC). The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) now remains in the alliance with only small parties, Social Democratic Party (SDP), Conservative Party and Justice Forum (JEEMA).

One would not be wrong to say that by virtue of its objective of creating a strong opposition alliance that can dislodge President Yoweri Museveni and his NRM party from power, IPC is dead.

The first cracks within IPC were caused by Uganda’s oldest political party, the Democratic Party (DP), which had been part of its pioneers at the formation stage, but declined to send its delegation to sign the binding protocol on August 5, 2008 at Kololo Airstrip.

With an empty tent of DP which was later occupied by journalists, the signing of the protocol went on without the members knowing that a similar event would take place in August 2010, without the attendance of the second oldest party in Uganda, (UPC).

Just like DP pulled out in a soft way with the excuse that they wanted more time to consult all the party members, UPC is also playing the same game.

What makes the matter more complicated, is that there is no time for FDC and other parties to wait for the UPC consultations when it is only one month to the 2011 presidential election nominations to take place in October.

It is a fact that UPC, DP and FDC are the main opposition parties with significant presence across the country. Therefore, it is not plausible to further the idea of an opposition alliance project in which UPC and DP are not involved.

UPC’s exit from the alliance has solidified a common argument by many of Uganda’s political analysts that political alliances in Uganda cannot work.

All attempts in the past have collapsed and even those that succeeded in capturing power like the Kabaka Yekka and UPC (1961) alliance and the alliance of the political groups that overthrew Idi Amin (1979) disintegrated almost immediately with unfortunate consequences of bloodshed and political chaos.

The biggest loser in UPC’s pull-out of IPC is Dr. Kizza Besigye.

With the emergence of the inspirational DP’s Norbert Mao and attention arousing UPC’s Olara Otunnu, both from the northern region where FDC and Besigye got most votes, it certainly becomes impossible for Besigye to recoup his 37.3%.

Besigye and FDC are afraid that with Mao, Otunnu, Abed Bwanika, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali, and Beti Kamya as opposition presidential candidates, his political weight in terms of the total votes acquired will shrink to below 20%.

That is why FDC has been desperately pushing for an opposition alliance to avoid a shortfall they would suffer if all opposition parties fielded their own presidential candidates.

Even recent public debates and polls indicate that there is a big decline in the popularity of Besigye as the key opposition politician.

The recently released New Vision poll puts FDC’s Besigye at 16.06%, DP’s Mao at 5.41%, UPC’s Otunnu at 3.14%, and NRM’s Yoweri Museveni at 52.72%.

In the 2006 elections, NRM’s Museveni got 59%, UPC’s Miria Kalule got 0.82%, DP’s John Ssebaana got 1.58%, Abed Bwanika scored 0.92%, and Besigye got 37.3%.

Comparing the performance of DP and UPC in the 2006 elections and how recent polls are giving them higher percentages coupled with the fact that the two parties now have inspirational leaders we can foretell that the two parties will gain more ground as FDC loses in the 2011 elections.

Even the key strategists in other opposition parties are aware of this reality and that is why at a recent rally at Nakivubo Blue Primary School, Mao attacked IPC, calling it a project engineered by FDC to consolidate and widen its political base.

He was explaining to DP supporters why DP refused to join IPC.

Behind the public eyes, there is a battle between FDC, DP and UPC. Each party is fighting to take the position of leader of the opposition.

Before the emergence of FDC, DP had, for so long, been acting as the leading opposition party. As a party that ruled Uganda twice, UPC leaders feel a time has come when the worst they can be is leader of the opposition. What this means is, the three parties will collide in many ways as DP and UPC fight to reclaim their traditional political constituencies currently occupied by FDC and the NRM.
Journalist

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