2026 polls: Will Museveni recover lost ground in Busoga?

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President Yoweri Museveni recently spent six days courting the districts of Busoga sub-region, where he lost ground among voters in the last general election.

Museveni, who is seeking re-election next year on the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party ticket, campaigned in the districts of Bugiri, Bugweri, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Namayingo, Mayuge, Luuka, Kamuli, Iganga and Jinja. 

This was before starting his campaign trail around the Kigezi sub-region on November 24, where he and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) party retained its dominance in that election of 2021.

In the 2021 general election, Museveni’s chief rival, Robert Kyagulanyi of the National Unity Platform (NUP) party, caused an election upset in all the aforementioned districts except Buyende, Kaliro and Namutumba.

Busoga is made up of 11 districts and has been Museveni’s stronghold since 1996, when Ugandans went to the polls to exercise their constitutional and democratic right to elect their representatives through a general election.

In the 2021 general election, Museveni polled 404,862 votes in Busoga, while Kyagulanyi, who was running for presidency for the first time, garnered 437,059.

NUP also grabbed some seats like City Woman MP, Jinja City mayor and Iganga Municipality mayor.

However, the NRM maintained a commanding majority at the parliamentary level.

NUP, which was formed in July 2020, also quickly gained influence in the politics of Buganda, where it secured 55 out of 57 parliamentary seats it has.

Party infighting

Emmanuel Dombo, the director of information and publicity at the NRM secretariat, blamed the Busoga loss on infighting among party leaders.  

Emmanuel Dombo, the director of information and publicity at the NRM secretariat. (File)

“Busoga deteriorated because of the internal bickering amongst NRM leaders. I think there could have been silent supremacy fights and people becoming egoistic, but progressively, I think when we lost in Busoga, there was collective embarrassment and pain and many people realised their mistakes,” he said.

Dombo, a former MP, noted that through internal reconciliation and improving the internal methods of work, they should be able to recover the lost ground and get more.

“That is, if we can go by the demonstrated turnout in the meetings, but also because the poverty levels [are still high] due to poor enterprise selection, and this has affected many households,” he said.

He called for affirmative action for Busoga to address the issue of chronic poverty.

“So, in the long run, Busoga may need affirmative action like they have done elsewhere to create an economic vehicle that can enable them to get rid of poverty,” Dombo said.

The majority of people in Busoga are poor, struggling to meet basic needs such as food and healthcare.

So, when Kyagulanyi caused an election upset in the last election, some locals attributed it to the incumbent President’s failure to fully tackle poverty, especially the low prices for sugarcane.

“People who are poor become vulnerable. They are susceptible to manipulation, and they easily believe in lies because they have been promised a quick fix, which may be a lie, but already, economically empowered communities cannot easily be deceived because they have certain things at stake that they may lose,” Dombo stated.

“But if somebody does not have anything in his or her hand, they don’t care what happens. They can vote for anybody or anything anytime,” he added.

Kadaga-Among rivalry 

Speaker of Parliament Anita Among and first Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Kadaga. (File)

However, the battle for supremacy between two heavy political weights still rages in Busoga with no end in sight.

While on the campaign trail around Buyende and Kaliro, Museveni was caught up in the political rivalry between supporters of Speaker of Parliament Anita Among and those allied to First Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Kadaga.

The sharp political divisions among the two camps were on display at the two different campaign rallies Museveni, who is also the NRM chairman, held in the two districts.

“I think the senior leaders themselves must have seen it (the display) and they know that we should work hard so that we survive together because if we fail, we shall fail together,” Dombo said.

“So, the only way we can redeem our reputations and protect our offices and the gains is to work together and forget our differences for the sake of victory. The other issues can be resolved after the victory,” he added.

Al-Hajji Moses Kigongo, the first NRM national vice-chairperson, who attended all the rallies in Busoga, expressed unhappiness at the display of divisions.

“I request all the leaders of Busoga to unite and work together. If you do not, we are not going to win Busoga very highly. I’m also requesting the leaders to help to stop infighting in the Movement. If we start fighting in the Movement, we are going to do something which is not nice,” he said.

Kigongo reminded the NRM supporters in Busoga of the popular saying that goes, united we stand, divided we fall.

“We are all in the bus and we must work together so that we can look for the votes better. United we stand, divided we fall. So, I appeal to all leaders to behave very well,” he added.

Among, who is also the Bukedea Woman MP, has leveraged political ties in many districts in Busoga through her marriage to Budiope East MP Moses Magogo Buyende, who also doubles as the district NRM chairman.

“We want to welcome you (President Museveni) to Buyende. Maama (First Lady), welcome to my home district. This is where I am married. This is my home,” Among told the First Lady and Minister of Education and Sports, Mrs Janet Museveni, who was seen nodding in agreement, at a rally in Buyende, where Kadaga was not given an opportunity to speak.

In August, Among defeated Kadaga, who is also the Kamuli Woman MP, in the race for the 2nd NRM national vice chairperson (female). This was after a fierce fight that extended far beyond party lines.

‘Unnecessary conflicts’

The incumbent President told the people of Busoga that he was tired of unnecessary conflicts.

“I am now tired of unnecessary conflicts because we waste a lot of time,” he said.

He made the remarks while addressing a rally in Kaliro, where he promised that all malpractices that marred the party’s primaries in the region would be investigated and the rightful winners declared once those aggrieved adduce evidence to support their claims.

At the rally in Buyende, Museveni said: “NRM is a serious movement. You, the young members of the NRM, should know that and copy the culture of the NRM. We are a movement of doers and of determined people.”

NRM plans for Busoga

While campaigning in Busoga, Museveni promised to tarmac several roads, including those of Jinja–Kamuli–Mbulamuti, Iganga–Kiyunga–Kamuli, and the Bugiri–Namayingo, among others.

President Yoweri Museveni addressing a recent campaign rally.

“We now have money to work on Jinja-Mbulamuti-Kamuli-road. It has taken time because people insist on doing so many things at the same time, and that is not realistic because you end up scattering resources and achieving little,” he said at a rally in Jinja City.  

On the issue of water, he revealed a plan to pump water directly from Lake Victoria to the higher areas, just like they did in Lira district, where they pumped water from the Kachung water treatment plant in Agwata town council, Dokolo district.

Museveni noted that this will enable the people of Busoga who live near the lake to get a reliable water supply because it hard rocks in the lake cannot allow the construction of boreholes.

At all the rallies, the incumbent President noted that the four-acre model introduced in the 1996 NRM manifesto remains a key pathway for families with small land holdings to create household wealth.

“It is possible to get rid of poverty. NRM has shown you and the whole of Uganda how to get rid of poverty. Those who have woken up, have done a lot for this country, but what I want is everybody to participate in wealth creation,” he said at one of the rallies.

Museveni also promised to upgrade several health centres in order to improve health services in the region and fulfil a number of old pledges, including compensating victims of the Alice Lakwena war.

He also pledged to establish an industrial park in Kamuli to create jobs, especially for unemployed youth.