National
WB sees 'flat' growth for developing countries
Publish Date: Jun 11, 2014
WB sees 'flat' growth for developing countries
The World Bank says most of the pick-up in growth this year will come from high-income countries. PHOTO/AFP
  • mail
  • img
newvision

WASHINGTON - The World Bank has lowered its 2014 growth forecasts for the global economy, but says advanced economies' rebound from a rough start would help offset stagnation in developing countries.

Most of the pick-up in growth this year will come from high-income countries, particularly the United States and the 18-nation eurozone, the World Bank said in its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report.

But a rough start to the year -- bad weather in the United States, financial market turmoil and the Ukraine crisis -- dragged down global growth for the year as a whole, the Bank said.

It marked down its 2014 forecast to a 2.8 percent pace from its January forecast of 3.2 percent. The global economy grew 2.4 percent growth in 2013.

High-income countries would see stronger growth this year of 1.9 percent from 1.3 percent in the previous year, the World Bank said.

But developing countries can expect mixed challenges from the accelerating growth in the rich countries.

As high-income economies expand, their import demand should grow, boosting developing-country exports.

But developing countries will be hard-pressed to find the capacity to meet that demand, because most of them already are fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis and growing close to potential, the Washington-based development lender said.

Developing countries were projected to grow 4.8 percent this year, substantially below the 5.3 percent estimate in January.

"The outlook for developing countries is for flat growth in 2014. This marks the third year in a row of sub-five percent growth and reflects a more challenging post-crisis global economic environment," it said.

The World Bank's latest outlook marked a deterioration from the January report, when it had raised its growth forecasts, saying both rich and developing countries appeared to be "finally turning the corner" after the global financial crisis.

Weakness in China

Much of the slowdown this year reflected weakness in China, the world's second-largest economy.


The headquarters of the People's Bank of China. Recently, the African Development Bank and the People’s Bank of China entered into a $2b (about sh5 trillion) co-financing fund  PHOTO/AFP  PHOTO/AFP

First-quarter growth in Chinese gross domestic product was only a 5.8 percent annualized rate, with a sharp deceleration in industrial output and Beijing taking steps to tighten credit.

The Washington-based lender forecast growth of 7.6 percent this year, lower than China's 7.7-percent growth rate in 2013. Beijing's own target for this year is 7.5 percent.

GDP growth accelerated slightly in the first quarter in India, Mexico and the Philippines. But the pace of growth slowed in Indonesia, Mongolia, Malaysia and Brazil and turned negative in South Africa and Peru.

Sharp annualized contractions of between eight and 12 percent occurred in Ukraine, Thailand and Morocco.

The weakness in developing countries reflected a slew of factors, including knock-on effects from the severe winter in the US; political tensions in Thailand, Ukraine and Turkey; labor unrest in South Africa; and monetary policy tightening following financial market turmoil a year ago, the Bank said.

Actual and structural fiscal deficits are much higher now than in 2007 in developing countries, and debt rose by more than 10 percentage points of GDP in half of them.

The World Bank warned that developing countries need to prepare now with structural reforms while financial conditions are easy, because they are likely to tighten over the longer term.

The president of the World Bank, Jim Yong Kim, said more robust growth was needed to create the type of jobs that can improve the lives of the world's poorest 40 percent.

"Clearly, countries need to move faster and invest more in domestic structural reforms to get broad-based economic growth to levels needed to end extreme poverty in our generation," Kim said in a statement.

Andrew Burns, lead author of the report, said bottlenecks in energy and infrastructure, labor markets and business climate in many of the large middle-income countries are holding back economic and productivity growth."

"Subsidy reform is one potential avenue for generating the money to raise the quality of public investments in human capital and physical infrastructure," he said.

AFP


Also related to this story

IMF boss hails 'remarkable' African growth

African growth miraculous, says Museveni

The statements, comments, or opinions expressed through the use of New Vision Online are those of their respective authors, who are solely responsible for them, and do not necessarily represent the views held by the staff and management of New Vision Online.

New Vision Online reserves the right to moderate, publish or delete a post without warning or consultation with the author.Find out why we moderate comments. For any questions please contact digital@newvision.co.ug

  • mail
  • img
blog comments powered by Disqus
Also In This Section
Vision Group platforms to cover Martyrs day celebrations live
Samuel Ouga and David Lumu All Vision Group platforms starting today will be providing readers with insights into the journey to Namugongo as Christians all over the world prepare and trek for the Uganda Martyrs Day on June 3....
Agago school teachers, pupils use nearby bush for latrine
A primary school in Agago district without a latrine is to be closed, the district inspector of schools, Grace Apio, has said. Apio said pupils of Abilonino Primary School in Lapono Sub-County were easing themselves in the bush....
Muliika raps MPs over Constitution amendment
MPs on the legal committee have clashed with the chairperson of Evolution for Human Dignity, Dan Muliika who questioned their mandate to amend the constitution....
30 countries meet in Kigali for peacekeeping conference
Delegations from at least 30 top UN troop contributing countries are meeting in Kigali, Rwanda to discuss how to protect civilians in conflict areas during peacekeeping operations....
Declare your HIV sero status, Ugandans told
If more people come out publicly and declare their HIV sero status, it might help in reducing stigma among those infected and the spread of the epidemic, a health expert has said....
Priest launches book on Uganda Martyrs
A book containing brief biographies of the Catholic Martyrs of Uganda has been launched by the former Katikkiro of Buganda, Engineer John Baptist Walusimbi, during a function that took place at Pope Paul Memorial Hotel, Rubaga....
Should medical students be subjected to pre-admission exams?
Yes
No
Can't Say
follow us
subscribe to our news letter