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Opinion
Kenyan politics and its impact on the economies of Eastern AfricaPublish Date: Mar 28, 2013
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By Jerry Okungu

IT is given that Kenya houses the third largest United Nations complex outside the United States and Europe. It is also true that for decades now, Kenya has been the landing pad for many operations, military, humanitarian and rescue missions in the Horn of Africa and the larger Great Lakes Region.

The United Nations agencies have often used Kenya as a friendly nation to support military and humanitarian operations in Somalia, South Sudan, and Ethiopia and, to some extent, Uganda during the civil war in the early 1970s.

The port of Mombasa, to the West Coast of Kenya, has been the lifeline of many countries in East Africa and the Great Lakes Region. Beneficiaries of this gateway to the Indian Ocean have included Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, the DRC and Northern Tanzania and at one time served Zambia before Tazara Railway line was built to connect Zambia to the port of Dar es Salaam.

This unique position that Kenya commands in East Africa is the reason its general elections become the business of every organisation and government with interest in the development of the region. The international community has invested heavily in the country and continues to do so in the hope that all will be well.

If Kenya falls apart, many things can go wrong. Many organisations, governments, humanitarian agencies and individuals will suffer irreparable damage. Thousands of refugees housed in Kenya will find themselves exposed to all sorts of dangers they had run away from in the first place.

Kenya has a new constitution, which will be three years old in August. The elections we have just gone through were the first to be held under the new dispensation. And Kenyans had very high hopes that it would go well and catapult the country to new levels of economic development.

For this reason, Kenyan voters thoroughly scrutinised the campaign manifestos that the major parties such as the Orange Democratic Party and the National Alliance party offered them. 

It was gratifying to see that the main political parties focused on infrastructure, regional trade, regional integration and freedom of movement of people, goods and services and peace within the EAC.

Right now, President Kibaki is in office on borrowed time. He will vacate the office as soon as a new president is confirmed by the Supreme Court of Kenya since the presidential election results have been challenged.

If the Supreme Court nullifies the results, Kenyans will go back to the polls in 60 days with another possible rerun if none of the candidates garners more than 50% of the votes cast. If this happens, Kenya may not get a new president for the next four or five months if one factors in three weeks following completion of elections before a new president is sworn in.

Kibaki’s departure will have a direct impact on the region’s economic development. With President Museveni, they have toyed with the idea of having a more efficient railway line running from Mombasa through Malaba and Busia to Kampala with a possible extension to Kigali and Bujumbura in the foreseeable future.

It remains to be seen whether the new regime will pursue such ventures with vigor and whether the new president will find chemistry with Yoweri Museveni.

It may also be remembered that just months before Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia passed away, the three leaders of the region, Salva Kiir of South Sudan, Zenawi and Kibaki performed a groundbreaking ceremony in Lamu to launch a multibillion dollar infrastructure project that would connect South Sudan, Kenya and Ethiopia and facilitate the export of South Sudan oil through the new Lamu Port. The road, rail and oil pipeline would open up trade and human traffic between the peoples of Eastern Africa.

Again this massive project will very much depend on the new Ethiopian Prime Minister, whether he, Salva Kiir and the new Kenyan president will appreciate the need for this project. Or will the ongoing talks between Salva Kiir and Omar El Bashir stall the project should South Sudan choose to deal with the old foe?

As Kenya puts its house in order, it may be necessary for other member states of the EAC to play their part and move some common projects forward. 

One such project is the Lake Victoria Basin Commission, which was launched in 2006 with its headquarters in Kisumu. This is the greatest natural asset that belongs to all the member states of the East African Community.

The lake needs to be restored to its former glory by carrying out massive environmental clean up, remove the hyacinth that has become a menace choking fish and denying the region’s fishing community their time honored livelihood.

The lake has an idle dry dock at the Port of Kisumu and used to be the conveyor belt for goods and passengers ferried from  Mombasa and Dar-es-Salaam to Northern Tanzania’s Mwanza, Musoma and Uganda’s Entebbe and Jinja during the days of the East African Railways and Harbours under the then East African Common Services.

With stable governments in the Great Lakes region, water transport around the lake should be revived to reactivate trade among the states sharing the waters of Lake Victoria. Investments in tourism ventures including luxury yatches should freely ply the ports in Kisumu, Entebbe, Mwanza and Jinja.

If transport across the lake is revived, pressure on our roads will be greatly reduced as bulk commercial products including oil can be transported across the lake to Northern Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and DRC.

As Kenya awaits the outcome of the Supreme Court verdict this weekend, the rest of Africa must wish Kenya well during these trying moments.

jerryokungu@gmail.com

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