This has no headline

May 27, 2003

Last week was one of the most dramatic in Uganda’s politics, since the 2001 presidential and parliamentary elections.

Last week was one of the most dramatic in Uganda’s politics, since the 2001 presidential and parliamentary elections. This is because a long awaited cabinet reshuffle finally came.
The highlights of the reshuffle included the dropping of two of his long time comrades, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali and Eriya Kategaya, who a few days ago had given the President what was on their minds in as far as the third term is concerned. Also dropped were Miria Matembe, Sarah Kiyingi and Muruuli Mukasa.
If they were dropped because of their opposition to the third term, analysts point out that the President is trying to show that he is still in control of the government. “ Every time somebody in government comes out and challenges him, he asserts himself by removing that very person from cabinet. This is intended to show that he is still in control,” Tamale Mirundi, a political commentator says.
Ken Lukyamuzi, secretary general of the Conservative Party (CP) thinks that Museveni misjudged his move this time round and he is no longer the political strategist he used to be. “If you are a strategist, you don’t just chase away people you have disagreed with just a few days after you disagree,” he says.
In the 66-person Cabinet, the highest in the history of Uganda, Museveni has also brought in new faces to join the survivors from the old cabinet. The events that have taken centre stage over the last two weeks seem to set a clear agenda for the 2006 political scene.
The VP’s exit came against a background of a low personality rating due to home-grown scandals. Museveni had retained Kazibwe for nine years on the strength of women emancipation and being a Catholic. Kazibwe, however, lost credibility at the time of high political demand.
What now remains to be seen is whether she will retain her seat or not. Should she choose to retain it, it will be clear that she was pushed out ahead of the reshuffle. The speed and timing at which she was replaced shows there was a predetermined position.
While all indication is that Kazibwe was given a chance to resign, analysts believe that it would have been a much bigger crisis, if Bidandi Ssali and Kategaya had resigned. It would have been a vote of no confidence in the President’s ambitions of arranging the NRM party.
However, the sacking of Kategaya, Bidandi and Ethics and Integrity Minister Miria Matembe according to some analysts sends a clear message to the nonconformists within the Movement that President Museveni is still in charge and does not want his authority undermined.
But the sacking of State Minister for Internal affairs Sarah Kiyingi also came as a surprise especially after president Museveni declared that she was a daughter of his once greatest comrade in the struggle.
Surprisingly after the reshuffle Bidandi, was quick to say it was a normal reshuffle that had nothing to do with third term talk.
It is not clear what political game Bidandi was trying to play but even the most casual observer will realise that after his reported confrontations with the President and Kategaya’s bare-it-all interview with Sunday Vision the stage was set for a big purge.
The reshuffle in effect, threw Bidandi and Kategaya from the political centre out to the fringes, a reality the former acknowledged when he told The New Vision on Friday that he would remain politically active even at the LC1 level. Kategaya who was quoted over the weekend as saying the Movement is now dictatorial, has meanwhile asked for more time to chart the next course.
Inspite of the ignominious exit, the two, especially Bidandi, still insist on remaining in the Movement and reforming it from within. That is exactly what Col. Kizza Besigye tried with his Reform agenda and failed.
Matembe, Kiyingi and Muruli, however, retain their elective seats in Parliament.
Museveni pulled off a master-stroke when he appointed the 54-year-old professor to replace Dr. Speciosa Kazibwe. On top of cementing his support base among Catholics and Baganda, Museveni has a possible successor for 2006.
“Bukenya is a catholic, a Muganda and a federalist. So by appointing him, the President wants to appeal to all these three constituencies,” says an analyst.
No wonder, among the first people to congratulate him was Joseph Ssemogerere, the Katikiro of Buganda. He said he expects a lot from him. Prof. Bukenya's appointment was apparently also targeted at disorganising the Democratic Party (DP) by hitting at the heart of its support base which is Catholic and Ganda.

Bukenya’s rising fortunes began when he was made the Parliamentary Movement caucus chairman. He also caught the President’s eye when in 2000 he martialled MPs to change the 2000 referendum law when there was total chaos in the August House.
Politicians who have worked with Bukenya have called him a great mobiliser and net-worker.
“Bukenya is a good politician, a great mobiliser and net-worker. I think he can deliver, if given a free atmosphere to do so,” says Norbert Mao, MP for Gulu Municipality.
Though critics will be quick to say his appeal is limited to Buganda, he is one of the few ministers from the south and west who have expressed concern about the northern rebellion. He spent three weeks in Gulu, Pader and Kitgum last year trying to explore alternative means of ending the 16-year rebellion.
On the controversial federal demands by Buganda, he has tried to strike a balance between Mengo and the central government.
The inclusion of political veterans Kivejinja and Prof. Tarsis Kabwegyere underlie Museveni's desire to calm down crucial constituencies and forestall any lingering opposition to his rule from areas previously presumed movement safe-havens.
Kivejinja who hails from Iganga was presumably brought in to fill the gap created by the death of former Information Minister Basoga Nsadhu and the mysterious exit of ex-Vice President Speciosa Kazibwe.
Kivejinja while representing Busoga interests is also a good catch as he also increases the presence of Muslim at high levels of government. The fact that he was rejected by voters during the last election could however, antagonise him with the elected MPs from Iganga and their supporters.
Former Army Commander Lt. Gen. Jeje Odongo's belated appointment to the junior environment ministry is also seen as a result of uncertainties over his loyalty in light of the recent reports that he was in the ranks of the anti-third term MPs.
It was also a response to the noise from Teso on why he had been put on katebe (without deployment) since he was dropped as army commander. It is a catch 22 situation for the likeable former army commander to accept or reject the appointment.
Odongo's other dilemma is that as a Lt. Gen., he is joining the Lands ministry headed by a junior officer Col. Kahinda Otafire.
Pundits reckon that even Gen. Odongo's inclusion might not stall the general tide against the movement in Teso. Coming from Amuria, the frontier with Karamoja, Gen. Odongo’s appointment may not mean much in political terms unless the menace of cattle rustling is effectively dealt with.
The appointment of Kabale Woman MP Hope Mwesigye and the retention of Amama Mbabazi and Ruhakana Rugunda was clearly calculated to keep the Bakiga in fold. Likewise, the retention of Brig. Jim Muhwezi, Prof. Mondo Kangonyera and the ‘promotion’ of Dr. Alex Kamugisha from the obscure Child Affairs portfolio to the Ministry of Health could be seen as an attempt to firmly secure Rukungiri, the cradle of Col. Besigye’s Reform Agenda activism.
While Mwesigye could be useful in cementing Movement fortunes in Kabale, pundits believe she is not the right choice for the parliamentary slot that is likely to become even more charged as the battle lines ahead of 2006 become clearer.
Bunyangabu MP Adolf Mwesige, who has been appointed state minister in the Vice-President's office, would have made a better parliamentary affairs minister. Mwesige who has been brought in to secure the huge support for the Movement in Toro is a respected lawyer who has diligently served the House as chairperson of the politically demanding Legal Affairs Committee.
The shift of Tim Lwanga from Luwero Triangle to former Matembe’s Ethics post also seems to have been an inappropriate. Lwanga, who is seen as too close to the establishment may be constrained in speaking out against corruption and abuse of office. Matembe had using her own personal touch given meaning to that otherwise inconsequential office.
The appointment of Augustine Nshimye and Dr. Nsaba Buturo could be interpreted an attempt to shake-up the house ahead of the crucial battles. Buturo’s appointment should also appease the majority Hutu ethnic group in Kisoro, but the issue of the Kisoro-Kabale road remains the dominant factor in the politics there.

Museveni also used the appointment to attend to the traditional dynamics of Ankole politics that plays around religious and ethnic sentiments.
In elevating Col. Kahinda Otafire to full ministership and handing him the huge portfolio of Water, Lands and Environment ministry, and by bringing back Prof. Tarsis Kabwegyere, both from Bushenyi, the former hotbed of UPC politics, the President seems to have been plugging any loopholes the partyists would hope to exploit.
Museveni still has to deal with his home district of Mbarara where the majority of the current MPs, including Matembe, Maj. John Kazoora, Capt. Guma Gumisiriza, and Winnie Byanyima do not support proposed plans to have him continue in office after 2006.
Museveni also showed that the rewards loyal cadres. He appointed Prof. Kiwanuka, Minister of Luweero Triangle. Kiwanuka was recently recalled from New York, where he was Uganda’s ambassador to the UN. The demotion of Felix Okot Ogong from the minister in charge of parliamentary affairs to child affairs is not likely to appease Lango, the UPC stronghold that he calls home.
Among the losers in the reshuffle are the women and areas traditionally opposed to Museveni’s rule like the north, parts of the east and west.
In fact, as the reshuffle was being announced women were reportedly locked up in a crisis meeting on how to retain the vice-presidency. The president is likely to compensate the women constituency through other reshuffles like the impending shake-up of RDCs.
The increase in the number of ministers from 63 to 67 will obviously add to public expenses. Ends

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});