Besigye should not cry over spilt milk
Mar 16, 2006
IN most African societies people never believed in death by natural causes or death by accident. If someone died, families and villagers would look for scapegoats and family enemies that must have been behind such a death.
By Jerry Okungu
IN most African societies people never believed in death by natural causes or death by accident. If someone died, families and villagers would look for scapegoats and family enemies that must have been behind such a death.
They would look for the usual suspects such as neighbours that the deceased had a dispute with over land, a jealous man whose wife the man had snatched or a neighbour whose children had not been doing well at school or in employment as the most likely culprit. In other words in African communities, nobody died just like that. Someone must have arranged for his death through witchcraft.
Now that our societies are getting more and more enlightened about death, as we get used to another culture of elective politics, it is quite common to hear allegations of election rigging from Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, Kenya, Tanzania, Nigeria, Uganda, Ethiopia, Togo, Cameroon and any other country that cares to conduct a democratic election. In other words in Africa today, no candidate can genuinely lose an election without being rigged out by the opponent. And it happens all the time whether at the presidential, parliamentary or at the civic level.
In the case of the recent elections in Uganda, every Tom, Dick and Harry knew that Museveni would win the presidency except of course Besigye, his supporters and Winnie Byanyima Besigye. All the opinion polls in the last two years had predicted the same. All the political analysts including this one had predicted the same as late as a few days to polling day. International observers also concurred.
European and American donors always have problems with African leaders who overstay in power beyond two terms unless they are as civilized and as democratic as Britain, Canada, Australia, France and Israel. In Africa, if you dare imagine that you can seek a third term in this day and age, you may find yourself being branded a despot suffering from the big-man-syndrome like Mugabe, Mubarak, El Bashir and Gaddafi. They may just begin to look at you differently in terms of aid and donor funding!
In my many workshops with five main political parties in Uganda for the better part of 2005, mainly to prepare them for multiparty campaign strategies, I always told the other parties that the time to organise themselves for national elections was simply not there. Looking at the NRM national infrastructure and resources available to their party, I lost no opportunity to let them know that for the rest of the parties, including the FDC, they would be better off treating the 2006 elections as their dress rehearsals. I told them that if I were them, I would start preparing and laying the ground work for the 2011 elections when there would have been enough time to compete nationally. At that time the UPC and FDC were not too sure they could believe me despite my citing numerous examples of such situations in Africa.
For any incoming candidate to win an election in Africa against an incumbent who has been in office for over two decades there is more to the normal campaigns and the cheering crowds than meets the eye.
In the case of Besigye and Maama Miria Obote, it was wrong for them to have over-rated their popularity such that they could decide to join the race after spending the better part of the last five years in exile and then just come and grab power from homegrown locals. Such a rare feat is never known to happen unless you are an Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran romping home into victory from a neighbouring state after the overthrow of Emperor Reza Palavi.
It is true a sizeable number of Ugandans especially the urban elite who understand political power have been dissatisfied with Museveni, not because he has not been effective but because in competitive politics, every player needs a chance to have a go at leadership. This is the reason a significant number of young people followed Besigye around the urban centres making him believe that he had enough votes to make a difference at the polls.
I saw a similar situation in Kenya in 1992 when Kenneth Matiba and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga campaigned against Moi in Kenya’s first multiparty elections in nearly 30 years. The crowd that came to Kamkunji Grounds, the crowd that met Matiba at Jomo Kenyatta Airport were a spectacle to watch. All of us were convinced that Moi’s era was over and done with. We believed he had finally met his waterloo.
However, a few months later, that crowd turned out to be a nightmare. All Jaramogi got was 900,000 votes, Matiba 1,900,000 against Moi’s 2.5 million. In percentage terms, Moi had scraped through with a simple majority of 33% of the votes counted. He had to repeat the same feat five years later while the fragmented opposition was still squabbling among themselves.
In my opinion, if Besigye is still interested in the presidency, he should spend less time on the court petition and immediately embark on building structures for the 2011 elections, put a formidable election machine in place and face Museveni again at the age of 67 and hopefully wrestle power from him in case there is no better Ugandan by that time.
Besigye should learn from Mwai Kibaki who lost the presidency twice before winning it in his third attempt. He still has a chance to lead Uganda to his kind of paradise.
The other thing Besigye should be busy doing is to forge unity among the opposition parties and broaden the base of their supporters beyond what the entire opposition votes put together achieved this year. At 59% Museveni was way ahead of the entire opposition even if they pulled together. This means that the opposition voting power is still very weak compared to the NRM.
As a future possible president and a good statesman, he should accept defeat, look at the big picture and put structures in place that will eliminate rigging in the next five years.
Kenyans eliminated rigging in 2002 and repeated the feat in 2005. Right now elections results are announced simultaneously on all TV and radio networks from every polling station such that the Electoral Commission only comes in to confirm the obvious.
If Kenyans have done it, Ugandans can do it too. Meanwhile kudos to Museveni.
The writer is a Kenyan
independent journalist
IN most African societies people never believed in death by natural causes or death by accident. If someone died, families and villagers would look for scapegoats and family enemies that must have been behind such a death.
They would look for the usual suspects such as neighbours that the deceased had a dispute with over land, a jealous man whose wife the man had snatched or a neighbour whose children had not been doing well at school or in employment as the most likely culprit. In other words in African communities, nobody died just like that. Someone must have arranged for his death through witchcraft.
Now that our societies are getting more and more enlightened about death, as we get used to another culture of elective politics, it is quite common to hear allegations of election rigging from Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, Kenya, Tanzania, Nigeria, Uganda, Ethiopia, Togo, Cameroon and any other country that cares to conduct a democratic election. In other words in Africa today, no candidate can genuinely lose an election without being rigged out by the opponent. And it happens all the time whether at the presidential, parliamentary or at the civic level.
In the case of the recent elections in Uganda, every Tom, Dick and Harry knew that Museveni would win the presidency except of course Besigye, his supporters and Winnie Byanyima Besigye. All the opinion polls in the last two years had predicted the same. All the political analysts including this one had predicted the same as late as a few days to polling day. International observers also concurred.
European and American donors always have problems with African leaders who overstay in power beyond two terms unless they are as civilized and as democratic as Britain, Canada, Australia, France and Israel. In Africa, if you dare imagine that you can seek a third term in this day and age, you may find yourself being branded a despot suffering from the big-man-syndrome like Mugabe, Mubarak, El Bashir and Gaddafi. They may just begin to look at you differently in terms of aid and donor funding!
In my many workshops with five main political parties in Uganda for the better part of 2005, mainly to prepare them for multiparty campaign strategies, I always told the other parties that the time to organise themselves for national elections was simply not there. Looking at the NRM national infrastructure and resources available to their party, I lost no opportunity to let them know that for the rest of the parties, including the FDC, they would be better off treating the 2006 elections as their dress rehearsals. I told them that if I were them, I would start preparing and laying the ground work for the 2011 elections when there would have been enough time to compete nationally. At that time the UPC and FDC were not too sure they could believe me despite my citing numerous examples of such situations in Africa.
For any incoming candidate to win an election in Africa against an incumbent who has been in office for over two decades there is more to the normal campaigns and the cheering crowds than meets the eye.
In the case of Besigye and Maama Miria Obote, it was wrong for them to have over-rated their popularity such that they could decide to join the race after spending the better part of the last five years in exile and then just come and grab power from homegrown locals. Such a rare feat is never known to happen unless you are an Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran romping home into victory from a neighbouring state after the overthrow of Emperor Reza Palavi.
It is true a sizeable number of Ugandans especially the urban elite who understand political power have been dissatisfied with Museveni, not because he has not been effective but because in competitive politics, every player needs a chance to have a go at leadership. This is the reason a significant number of young people followed Besigye around the urban centres making him believe that he had enough votes to make a difference at the polls.
I saw a similar situation in Kenya in 1992 when Kenneth Matiba and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga campaigned against Moi in Kenya’s first multiparty elections in nearly 30 years. The crowd that came to Kamkunji Grounds, the crowd that met Matiba at Jomo Kenyatta Airport were a spectacle to watch. All of us were convinced that Moi’s era was over and done with. We believed he had finally met his waterloo.
However, a few months later, that crowd turned out to be a nightmare. All Jaramogi got was 900,000 votes, Matiba 1,900,000 against Moi’s 2.5 million. In percentage terms, Moi had scraped through with a simple majority of 33% of the votes counted. He had to repeat the same feat five years later while the fragmented opposition was still squabbling among themselves.
In my opinion, if Besigye is still interested in the presidency, he should spend less time on the court petition and immediately embark on building structures for the 2011 elections, put a formidable election machine in place and face Museveni again at the age of 67 and hopefully wrestle power from him in case there is no better Ugandan by that time.
Besigye should learn from Mwai Kibaki who lost the presidency twice before winning it in his third attempt. He still has a chance to lead Uganda to his kind of paradise.
The other thing Besigye should be busy doing is to forge unity among the opposition parties and broaden the base of their supporters beyond what the entire opposition votes put together achieved this year. At 59% Museveni was way ahead of the entire opposition even if they pulled together. This means that the opposition voting power is still very weak compared to the NRM.
As a future possible president and a good statesman, he should accept defeat, look at the big picture and put structures in place that will eliminate rigging in the next five years.
Kenyans eliminated rigging in 2002 and repeated the feat in 2005. Right now elections results are announced simultaneously on all TV and radio networks from every polling station such that the Electoral Commission only comes in to confirm the obvious.
If Kenyans have done it, Ugandans can do it too. Meanwhile kudos to Museveni.
The writer is a Kenyan
independent journalist