Who will take the capital?

As the race for Kampala Mayorship begins, Gawaya Tegulle looks at the candidates and the factors at play in Uganda’s most prestigious local government.John Sebaana KizitoQuite easily passes as the Old Fox in the race, with a wealth of political experience and possibly the best campaign machinery and network. He is the favourite to win because he enjoys the advantage of incumbency and for good measure, is up against a highly homogeneous but split opposition. All his opponents are Movement candidates and will in all likelihood split the Movement vote to Sebaana’s advantage.In his three years, Sebaana has been careful not to antagonise certain interest groups previously identified as pro-Movement, like UTODA. UTODA did stand by Christopher Yiga against Nasser Ssebaggala in 1998 and later Biriggwa in 1999. UTODA may not count too much in terms of votes, but it has reliable financial muscle and as such are therefore more useful as friends than opponents.To Ssebaana’s credit, many Movement heavy-weights like him because they see his presence as a strong guarantee for their business interests. He has avoided clashing with the two main Movement MPs in Kampala, Francis Babu (Central) and Ruhindi (Nakawa) and pundits say they too may return the favour in this election. The multi-party vote is almost certainly his, helped by his MP friends, Michael Mabikke (Makindye east), Nsubuga Nsambu (Makindye West), Sebuliba Mutumba (Kawempe South) and Latif Ssebaggala (Kawempe North).His campaign strategy is clear: “Kampala (already) has a Mayor,” just keep him in.But if Kampalans judge their mayor by what meets the eye, then the forever-dead traffic lights, bad roads repaired today and worse tomorrow, unplanned growth resulting in slums, corruption in KCC and the fact that marabou storks would never love Kampala if it were clean, provide Sebaana with a lot on his plate. Rocky Wasswa BiriggwaHe was twice runner-up in the Mayoral race; first in 1998 against Ssebaggala who was later stripped of his post after he was jailed in the United States for money-laundering; and in 1999 against Sebaana in the bye-election that followed.Biriggwa is good at working up crowds into a frenzy and getting along with ordinary people. Biriggwa is known to be very close to Mengo, the seat of the Buganda government, and their support could come in handy, as it did in 1998 and 1999. During that time, he also had the President’s blessing, but now Movement sources indicate the President will go with whosoever the Task Force anoints. His support within the Movement has also declined following clashes with some Movement bigwigs over business dealings. Strangely though, Biriggwa has not yet stood up to be counted. He has manifested a very half-hearted entry into the race. He is silent and totally anonymous. His posters are nowhere to be seen. No sign of his agents doing kakuyege. No sound of his adverts on radio like last time. You get the feeling election or campaign fatigue has caught up with Biriggwa. He is also on and off the political scene. He only shows up at election time. In between elections, he is as scarce as money. Will Kampalans vote in such a one? Will they be willing to give him a third chance? Biriggwa is simply not in this race. But even if he fails, he will have an inspiring, even if not too flattering, political epitaph: Here lies a man who though he never succeeded, yet he never stopped trying.Naava NabageseraThe only female in the race for mayorship of the capital. Naava is strong-willed and decisive and gets things done. You get the feeling that a lot would change in Kampala if she got the seat.Brilliant as a lawyer and beautiful as a woman, Naava is usually in the news for all the wrong reasons. The publicity brought by her controversial marriage to Ssebaggala, her being at his side when he was arrested in New York for money laundering; her failed election petition against Kampala MP Margaret Zziwa, and the subsequent difficulty in paying the costs of the suit, pays her no flattery and could work against her. Her chances are further undermined by her switching political camps. She started out as an icon of new generation multi-party stalwarts, but quickly shifted to the Movement and almost immediately “ate” RDC-ship in Bugiri.So she can almost certainly kiss the multi-party votes goodbye because she is seen as a sell-out; and she would have to fight for the fragmented Movement vote and possibly, the women vote.It is one thing to support the Movement, another to be supported by it. For now the Movement has washed its hands clean of Naava: “I don’t see any advantage for Naava. She is just a liability to Movement politics. Honestly, I don’t know why she thought of presenting herself,” says Movement spokesman, Ofwono Opondo. Without the blessing of the Movement, Naava has a lot of work on her hands.Wasswa ZiritwawulaShould be the strongest of the Movement opponents and therefore the biggest threat to Ssebaana’s incumbency. He has been the LC3 chairman for Kampala Central Division for the last four years, something that should have given him time and opportunity to get known and establish strong campaign machinery. Ziritwawula is one politician considered clean, with no corruption record to taint his name. He has continually demonstrated an intolerance for corruption and a desire to see his area develop. He was the first LC5 chairman of Kampala, a post he left to become NRC representative for Kampala Central in 1989. But he resigned the following year in protest when the NRC extended the reign of the Museveni administration by five more years “to complete the unfinished projects”.That distinguished him as a hero in the eyes of the moralists who believe in smart politics but did not help him politically. He stayed long in the political wilderness and when he came back to contest as CA delegate for Kampala Central, he lost to Francis Babu, the man who had replaced him. He tried his luck at Mayorship in 1998, lost badly and settled for the more humble LC3 chairmanship. He has proved himself forward-looking, principled, efficient and able to deliver. But, not contented with humble pie, Ziritwawula is trying the more glamourous dish he abandoned more than a decade ago.But what will he tell the vendors whom he ordered off the streets; or the prostitutes whom he promised to crack down upon? Problem there. Over the years, Ziritwawula has metamorphosed from multi-party to Movement and, says Movement Spokesman Ofwono Opondo, will be soon announced as the official Movement candidate. Kampala has always been a volatile electoral hotspot. Individual merit and political inclination play very close roles. That is why some voters tend to switch, depending on the candidate involved, resulting in very close margins. Ever since the departure of Nyombi Tembo, who moved from being Kampala district Movement chairman to RDC Busia, the Movement has had no serious mobiliser in Kampala. Aware that victory is not guaranteed, the Movement has widened its interest to the council in general. The argument is that since a mayor’s proposals have to be vetted by the council, dominating the latter would be a nice way to exert influence in the capital.There is no way the Movement can support three candidates for the same spot against an opponent of Ssebaana’s calibre. What the Movement usually does in a situation where it has more than one candidate against a strong multi-partyists, is to ask the rest to stand down in favour of just one. Indeed, highly placed Movement sources intimate that talks are on. Of the three Movement candidates, Biriggwa and Naava are the ones most likely to step down for Ziritwawula:(a) Because Ziritwawula sacrificed his Kampala Central Division chairmanship to campaign for Mayor and enjoys the biggest support in the Movement ranks.(b) Biriggwa has displayed a half-hearted approach to this campaign and therefore could be easy to convince to step down. (c) Naava is of no significant political consequence as far as the Movement is concerned. She just does not have the marks of a winner in this particular race, having too many factors working against her.The race will be more interesting if others step down so the competition is narrowed down to Sebaana and Ziritwawula or whosoever the Movement chooses as its consensus flag-bearer. When that happens the blood-bath will have begun.