Peace still uncertain in Great Lakes
Dec 17, 2002
THERE have been positive developments in the Great Lakes region in the past few months. Prospects for peace in the war-torn region, appear better.
Midweek opinion with John Kakande
THERE have been positive developments in the Great Lakes region in the past few months. Prospects for peace in the war-torn region, appear better.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the warring parties are engaged in dialogue over sharing power.
Most of the foreign forces have pulled out of the DRC while in Burundi, the transitional government and the main armed group, CNDD-FDD, have signed a ceasefire agreement, to be effected at the end of this month.
The Khartoum regime and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) have made some ground in the peace talks mediated by Kenya’s outgoing president Daniel arap Moi.
The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency appears to be subsiding. President Museveni has predicted that by early 2003, the LRA would be no more. Certainly without support from Khartoum, the LRA is unlikely to sustain the insurgency for long.
A lot however, depends on the relations between Khartoum and Kampala and the on-going Sudanese peace process.
While recognising these positive developments, I believe the situation in the region remains very precarious.
It would be a mistake for the international community to think that the situation in the region has stabilised. Rwanda, Burundi and the DRC, need to be watched closely. The situation there remains fragile and explosive.
It should be noted that the progress made towards peace in Burundi and the DRC has been a result of regional and international pressure.
The situation could fast degenerate into turmoil in these countries. Pressure must be exerted on the warring parties to abide by the peace accords.
Burundi remains a trouble spot in spite of the cease-fire agreement. There have been reports of military clashes and massacres.
The main warring parties signed the agreement under duress to avoid sanctions. For the agreement to be conformed to, pressure will have to be applied by the regional states and the international community.
Success of the Burundi peace process will to some extent depend on the political situation in neighbouring Rwanda.
Rwanda’s ruling RPF would be jittery if the Hutu majority were to take power in Bujumbura.
There are accusations that Rwanda has troops across the border to bolster the Burundi government against Hutu rebels.
It appears regional leaders and international community have not examined implications of Rwanda as a factor in resolving Burundi’s conflict.
It should be noted that the Rwanda political crisis precipitated the DRC war. While efforts are being made to sort out the Congo problem and the Interahamwe remnants, little is being done by regional leaders and international community to resolve the political problems in Rwanda.
Rwanda, the smallest in the region, having one of the biggest armies is evidence of problems in that country.
The detention of ex-president Bizimungu on politically-motivated charges and the flight of many Rwandese into exile doesn’t augur well for Rwanda and the region.
THERE have been positive developments in the Great Lakes region in the past few months. Prospects for peace in the war-torn region, appear better.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the warring parties are engaged in dialogue over sharing power.
Most of the foreign forces have pulled out of the DRC while in Burundi, the transitional government and the main armed group, CNDD-FDD, have signed a ceasefire agreement, to be effected at the end of this month.
The Khartoum regime and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) have made some ground in the peace talks mediated by Kenya’s outgoing president Daniel arap Moi.
The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency appears to be subsiding. President Museveni has predicted that by early 2003, the LRA would be no more. Certainly without support from Khartoum, the LRA is unlikely to sustain the insurgency for long.
A lot however, depends on the relations between Khartoum and Kampala and the on-going Sudanese peace process.
While recognising these positive developments, I believe the situation in the region remains very precarious.
It would be a mistake for the international community to think that the situation in the region has stabilised. Rwanda, Burundi and the DRC, need to be watched closely. The situation there remains fragile and explosive.
It should be noted that the progress made towards peace in Burundi and the DRC has been a result of regional and international pressure.
The situation could fast degenerate into turmoil in these countries. Pressure must be exerted on the warring parties to abide by the peace accords.
Burundi remains a trouble spot in spite of the cease-fire agreement. There have been reports of military clashes and massacres.
The main warring parties signed the agreement under duress to avoid sanctions. For the agreement to be conformed to, pressure will have to be applied by the regional states and the international community.
Success of the Burundi peace process will to some extent depend on the political situation in neighbouring Rwanda.
Rwanda’s ruling RPF would be jittery if the Hutu majority were to take power in Bujumbura.
There are accusations that Rwanda has troops across the border to bolster the Burundi government against Hutu rebels.
It appears regional leaders and international community have not examined implications of Rwanda as a factor in resolving Burundi’s conflict.
It should be noted that the Rwanda political crisis precipitated the DRC war. While efforts are being made to sort out the Congo problem and the Interahamwe remnants, little is being done by regional leaders and international community to resolve the political problems in Rwanda.
Rwanda, the smallest in the region, having one of the biggest armies is evidence of problems in that country.
The detention of ex-president Bizimungu on politically-motivated charges and the flight of many Rwandese into exile doesn’t augur well for Rwanda and the region.