PERSPECTIVE OF A UGANDAN IN CANADA

A week ago, a senior commander of the Somali insurgency al-Shabaab (aka Harakat Shabaab al-Mujahidin) threatened terror attacks in the capital cities of countries supporting the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) including Kampala, Bujumbura and Bamako.

“We shall make their people cry. We’ll attack Bujumbura and Kampala,” Sheikh Ali Mohamed Hussein was reported to have said. The warning has resulted in the tightening of security in major Uganda cities like Kampala, Jinja, Tororo and, over the weekend, in Arua.
The question is, how serious is the al-Shabaab threat and what should be the response?

To better evaluate the threat, it is important to look at the genesis of al-Shabaab and its potential global reach. Al-Shabaab is an alliance of Islamic organisations that rose after the defeat of the conservative Islamic Courts Union (ICU) by the combined Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Ethiopian troops in December 2006.

Its primary objective is to push out the TFG, take over power and re-establish an Islamist state similar to the one that operated prior to 2006. A corollary objective of the organisation is to loosen US influence in the Horn of Africa. It also sees the presence of AMISOM as an extension of US continued presence in Somalia.

The organisation has been a magnet for foreign radicals from Arab countries, US and Europe. These foreign members have forced al-Shabaab toward stronger ties with Muslim extremists including Al-Qaeda.

The US State Department, the government of Australia, the Norwegian Police Security Service and the Swedish Security Service have designated the organisation as a terrorist outfit.

Its forces were behind the bomb attack on February 22 that killed several Burundi peace-keepers, and the most recent double blasts on September 17 that killed 17 AMISOM soldiers including Major General Juvenal Niyonguruza from Burundi. Over the last several years, as Ethiopian forces withdrew from Somalia, al-Shabaab has carved an ever larger swath of Somalia, controlling all but the areas around the capital Mogadishu.

Islamic sharia laws are in the areas under its control including very stringent morality regulation on how women can conduct themselves in public. Recently, its zealots have been stripping women in public to determine whether they are wearing padded bras which are viewed as contributing to artificial firmness to the breasts!

Although a powerhouse in Somalia, al-Shabaab does not have a very strong reach beyond the borders of the war-torn country. However, it is also evidently clear that al-Shabaab has connections to foreign actors including Al-Qaeda that are capable of carrying out its bidding.

Intelligence reports, for instance, suggest that the organisation helped shield for seven years alleged Mombasa terror suspect Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan who was implicated in the November 28, 2002 missile attacks against an Israeli chartered plane taking off from Moi International Airport in Mombasa. Twenty minutes later an SUV carrying explosives was detonated by suicide bombers at Paradise Hotel in Mombasa, killing three Israelis and 10 Kenyans, and wounding scores.

Nabhan’s luck ran out six weeks ago on September 14. The US Army Special Forces launched several AH-6 Little Bird attack helicopters from a warship off the coast of Somalia, and scored a direct hit on the two-car convoy in which Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan was believed to be travelling near Mogadishu. The helicopters quickly landed and took off again with bodies including one believed to be Nabhan’s. The al-Shabaab vowed revenge against the US for Nabhan’s death.

The threats to attack Uganda and Burundi, therefore, must be taken very seriously. Most recently, the organisation was implicated in the August 2009 terror plot on Australia’s Holsworthy military barracks facility south-west of Sidney.

The plan was uncovered and five men—Nayef El Sayed, 25, Saney Edow Aweys, 26, Wissam Mahmoud Fattal, 33, Yacqub Khayre, 22 and Abdirahman Ahmed, 25—linked to al-Shabaab were taken into custody, and are awaiting trial in Australia.

Countries targeted by al-Shabaab can do a number of things to protect their citizens from future terror attacks. Foremost, it would be counter intuitive to start clamping and harassing peaceful law-abiding locals of Somali heritage living within a country, say in Kampala or Bujumbura.

Such heavy-handed tactics were used during the Second World War in Canada and the US when citizens of Japanese, German and Italian backgrounds were interned for fear that they might collaborate with the enemies.

Since 9/11, Muslims have been targets of security screenings in Europe and North America, with many innocents sent to jail for crimes they did not commit. Generally, this strategy has failed miserably. Secondly, a more proactive approach to safeguarding against terrorism sees the locals as allies not enemies.

The FBI has belatedly employed this strategy in several successful detections and prevention of potential terror acts in the US including the September arrests of suspects in Colorado and New York, and the shooting to death of a radical Muslim cleric in Detroit last week.

Meanwhile, the biggest terror plot in Canada was busted in 2006 as a result of the collaboration between Canadian security services and Canadian Muslims. Eighteen suspects were arrested, and over the last couple of months, several young men were convicted in that case.

Countering the al-Shabaab threats requires Uganda security services to engage local Somali leaders in discussing the best approach to developing neighbourhood watch so that law-abiding individuals can provide valuable intelligence on unusual illegal activities.

With overwhelming support of the locals, al-Shabaab will continue to make its threats from afar with no impact on the safety of Ugandans and citizens of other countries.

But a more lasting security for Uganda and countries involved with Somalia demands that al-Shabaab not be dismissed outright simply as a “terror” outfit, but engaged in continuing dialogues to find the best way forward.

Opiyo.oloya@sympatico.ca