Publication date: Tuesday, 16th June, 2009
Opiyo Oloya
DEAR President Yoweri Museveni, I know this will surprise you coming from me because I have been such a strong proponent of knocking out Kony by military might.
However, time changes, and views change. The peace currently being enjoyed in northern Uganda after twenty-some years of fighting the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) is hollow so long as Joseph Kony is out there.
There are only three possible ways to make the peace permanent. One way is for Joseph Kony to walk out of the forest with his hands in the air.
The second possibility is to hunt down Kony and kill him in the same manner that Sri Lankan Tamil Eelam leader Velupillai Prabhakaran was killed last month. The third is to work out some sort of deal with Kony that will allow him to walk out of the bushes voluntarily. The first option is not going to happen—Kony will never walk out of the bushes in surrender. The second has been tried including Operation Lightning Thunder which in December pushed the LRA deeper into the Congo forests.
Mr. President, while most attractive, it should be noted that the military option has only produced a stalemate. Yes, it has given the LRA no rest or time to become complacent, but it has also failed to knock out the rebel group. As the matter stands now, the governments of Sudan, Uganda, and Democratic Republic of Congo have abandoned efforts to flush out the LRA from their jungle hideouts in the Garamba forest.
At the same time, having been denied access to new arms, and the opportunity to forcibly recruit in northern Uganda and elsewhere, the LRA continues to languish in the bush, uncertain how to proceed.
But, while not as powerful as it was at the height of its campaign, the LRA remains a lethal force to be reckoned with. If only to demonstrate its chutzpah, the LRA can still mount a military campaign into northern Uganda even if that campaign ultimately fails. With that firmly in mind, irksome as it may sound to you, the best option for a lasting peace in northern Uganda is through a negotiated settlement between the LRA and the government of Uganda.
Such a peace talk need not be the expensive melodrama that was the Juba Peace Talks. Instead such a talk must necessarily focus on Kony’s fate. The central issue should be what to do with Kony and his immediate deputies who are indicted for crimes against humanity at The Hague.
While the Juba Peace Talks made great inroads into bringing the LRA and your government to the table, it failed to address what to do with Kony. In the end, this was the single most important issue that torpedoed the peace process. It became clear that Kony had no interest in presenting his neck so that the rope could be tied around it.
He said as much on numerous occasions that he did not want to go to The Hague to face the charges for crimes against humanity. But the International Criminal Court (ICC) indictments address only a part of Kony’s dilemma as Kony sees it—that is, how he will spend the rest of his natural life beyond war in jail. Yet, having fought tenaciously for two decades against President Yoweri Museveni, the man he considers his nemesis, Kony feels deeply in his bone that he has earned a minimum of respect to return home with his head high.
The thinking goes something like this: Having fought the mighty Museveni to a draw, why give myself up like a chicken to be slaughtered? Now, that may seem odd to you given that the LRA never achieved any sustained victory on the battlefield against the UPDF. It never held any territory, though it made some parts of Uganda so unsafe that life was completely disrupted. But in Kony’s mind, the single most important point is that the LRA proved itself worthy of respect. That the LRA shed plenty of innocent blood is not his vantage point.
This is an important consideration if a negotiated settlement is to be reached with the LRA. Namely any new negotiation must address how Kony will return home, for it is home, and not The Hague that Kony most wants to return to spend the rest of his life. This could mean that the ICC indictment be reviewed, perhaps with the idea of changing the venue. Such a review will assume that Kony must still face justice, simply not at The Hague.
Mr. President, it is also clear that merely changing the venue may not go far enough for Kony—he may want complete amnesty, one that will allow him to return home, go through some truth and reconciliation process, and then settle down to a quiet life of a respectable family man. Some of his former officers are already doing just that in northern Uganda today.
This is where the cog has hit a snag. Many Ugandans supported by the international community have no stomach to see Kony walk free, driving around town, trailed by a bunch of bodyguards, shopping at the local market.
To many, such a spectacle will be heaping further infamy on the graves of Kony’s numerous victims. Yet, this is precisely the point upon which the parties must return to the negotiation table. The new peace talks must be willing to unflinchingly consider the very possibility that Kony will walk free. It must also be willing to give guarantees that Kony will not be carted away to be tried in a foreign land.
In fact, the very language and terms of disengagement must be negotiated. In all likelihood, Kony could never agree to the use of the word like “surrender” because he sees himself as undefeated. Moreover, a willing international guarantor will have to be found, likely a middle country like Canada or France or Germany, even the United States who help to sponsor the fresh talks and see the final implementation.
Mr. President, I know that returning to a fresh round of peace talks is a very bitter pill to swallow given the utter waste of resources that occurred during the Juba Peace Talks.
However, it is also clear that the LRA is resilient, knowledgeable about bush warfare and, most important, able to withstand any conventional warfare launched against it.
In other words, taking out the LRA by lethal force has not worked and will not work. Pressure may be applied as happened during Operation Lightning Thunder to keep the LRA on its toes, but the guns of the LRA will only fall silent through talking. This is a good time to restart that process.
Opiyo.oloya@sympatico.ca
This article can be found on-line at: http://www.newvision.co.ug/D/8/20/684921
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