By Barbara Among

Since 1987, Uganda has rebounded from the abyss of civil war and economic catastrophe to become relatively peaceful, stable and prosperous.

As the economy stabilised, because of peace and security, coupled with constitution reform, the country has been seen as one of Africa’s success stories.

The January 2009 African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) report on Uganda generally recognises positive changes made by the NRM government since assuming power, showing that the economy has stabilised and civil service reforms have taken shape.

APRM indicates progress in democratic governance through regular elections, constitutional reform, an independent judiciary and legal institutions to fight corruption.

The Uganda Self-Assessment Report is part of an initiative by African countries to assess themselves and each other on issues of democracy and good governance, economic management, corporate governance and socio-economic development.

The report points out big strides in decentralisation and community participation and notes the growing infrastructural development in education and health.

Uganda’s economic growth has been robust and last year it grew by 7% despite the global downturn and regional instability. President Museveni now bemoans the country’s failure to generate adequate energy and slow industrialisation.

APRM notes Uganda’s campaign against HIV/AIDS, which has helped to reduce the prevalence of the virus from 30% in the 1990s to 7%.

In the 1970s and 1980s Uganda was notorious for its human rights abuses, when up to half a million people were killed in state-sponsored violence. APRM lauds Museveni’s government for improving human rights, notably by reducing abuses by security forces.

However, it notes that Uganda should not celebrate its success as yet. The irony of Uganda’s recovery is that the economic stability that has been achieved is superficial. Poverty is deepening and inequality widening.

“The macroeconomic stability that has been achieved is based almost entirely on concessional and conditional transfers of development aid,” the January 2009 report (http://www.nepaduganda.or.ug/documents/CountryReviewReport-Uganda.zip) notes.

“There has been no fundamental improvement in the basic economic structure and the inherited colonial economy has persisted.”

It calls for diversification of exports by moving away from traditional cash crops and raw materials to finished products. Over half of Uganda’s earnings from coffee export yet prices are extremely volatile, leaving the country vulnerable to external shock.

It notes that corruption is endemic and has threatened to undo the moderate gains made. The vice has taken its toll on every vital sector; the growth rate, the level and quality of service delivery as well as the proper channeling and use of external aid. For nearly every observation, the report offers a way forward, in the form of the national Programme of Action, which has key stakeholders, a timetable, implementing agencies, and estimated costs.

To fight corruption in the political sphere, for instance, there is a three-year blueprint, with a $3.6m (sh7b) costing, to harmonise all anti-corruption laws, policies and institutions. The actions include supporting the Inter-Agency Forum against corruption (consisting of the DPP, CID, Auditor General, PPDA), drafting of bills, and implementation of laws. The key stakeholders are the Ministry of Finance and the IGG.

Uganda was one of the first countries to access the Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiative in April 1998, however, the country’s debt remains high at over $850m (sh1870b), making it one of the most aid-dependent countries in Africa.

The report paints a not so rosy picture for Uganda’s democratic path. It warns that the country risks slipping back into a period of neo-patrimonial rule.

The threats to the country’s political stability are noted in the report as ethnicity, religious divisions and the ambition of parochial politicians. The apparent militarisation of society has not helped democratic cause as well. “While the NRM has restored political stability to a large extent, a genuine culture of democracy still eludes Uganda,” reads the report.

“After rescuing Uganda from the Amin and Obote death grip, the leadership should now be concerned about the legacy that they will leave the country,” it urges.

The report notes a widespread perception that the rapid multiplication of districts has bloated public service expenditure, resulting in less resources being available for social and economic services. Unemployment is also pointed out as an area that needs to be addressed.

On population growth, it observes that the high population growth rate of 3.2%, in the absence of a national population policy, has had a downswing effect on the fight against poverty. Twenty percent of Ugandan cannot afford basic necessities of water, food and shelter.

It calls for a closed link between educational institution and employment opportunities. It implores the Government to introduce wider technical and university enrollment. Uganda currently has free primary and early secondary education. APRM calls on the Government to put in place measures enabling it to maximise its gains from the oil proceeds without causing distortion in other sectors of the economy and without exacerbating political conflict. It calls on the Government to take advantage of the enlarged region markets through integration in order to transform itself into a prosperous middle income country by 2030.