By Raymond Baguma

UGANDA is already experiencing the negative effects of climate change and the situation is expected to worsen as impending calamities will affect agriculture, infrastructure and health, the 2009 State of Uganda Population Report predicts.

The report, released last month, lists the risk posed by climate change as reduced agricultural productivity, leading to increased food prices and food insecurity, which in turn will cause malnutrition. Already, the report says, 40% of deaths among children are due to malnutrition.

Uganda is also likely to experience changes in the frequency and severity of climate events, such as heat waves, droughts, floods and storms, the report notes.

This will affect the country’s development efforts and cause shifts in the spread of diseases like typhoid, dysentery and malaria. It will also lead to soil erosion, land degradation and damage the infrastructure.

“This situation compromises the country’s ability to meet its own development objectives and the Millennium Development Goals,” the report says.

Northern and eastern Uganda can expect both droughts and floods. The report refers to the 2007 floods, following the heaviest rainfall in 35 years, which destroyed crops and affected thousands of people.

The Mount Elgon region in particular will experience landslides and floods, the report predicts.

The Rwenzori region in western Uganda will see reduced rainy seasons, which will affect crops like beans. In addition, the ice caps on the Rwenzori Mountains have receded by 40% in the last half century, which will reduce the water flows into River Semliki.

Karamoja is already one of the hardest hit areas, according to the report. The region experienced seven droughts between 1991 and 2000.

As the area becomes drier, there will be increased food in security, animal losses and conflict over water. The report also foresees outbreaks of tick-borne diseases, dust storms which will cause chest and eye infections and the expansion of the tsetse fly belt.

Southwestern Uganda, according to the report, is the fastest warming region in Uganda at 0.30C per decade. The area is expected to experience more frequent droughts and will become unsuitable for coffee and dairy production when temperatures rise by two degrees Celsius.

Climate change will also lead to the spread of malaria to traditionally cooler areas like Kisoro, Kabale and Mount Elgon where people have a low natural immunity to the disease.

Anemia resulting from malaria will increasingly affect women’s health and become responsible for maternal mortality.

Kampala will see more rains, with increased risk of floods and drainage problems, causing outbreaks of cholera and diarrhea.

The water levels of Lake Victoria will continue to go down, according to the report, leading to a reduction in power generation and affecting fish breeding grounds.

This has already led to a reduction in fish catch, especially for fish which breed in shallow areas and use shoreline wetlands as refuge from predators, according to the report.